2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:45 · Dylan Wears run for 12 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:15: Nathan Rourke run for 6 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +3.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:57: Louie Zervos 43 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +0.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:59: Dorian Brown run for 39 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:43: A.J. Ouellette run for 37 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:09: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Mason Morgan for 6 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7KENT made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 13:35KENT 4th & 10 at OHIO 36, tiedClose callPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it13.0%−<0.130% to convertField goal13.0%42% to makePuntTheir call13.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:14OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 20, tiedClose callPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it85.8%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:40KENT 4th & 2 at OHIO 16, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snapGo for it15.4%56% to convertField goalTheir call15.4%−0.181% to makePunt14.7%−0.8average punt
- Q1 6:40OHIO 4th & 12 at OHIO 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snapGo for it84.0%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.2%average punt
- Q2 15:00KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.2%−0.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.8%average punt
- Q2 10:47OHIO 4th & 12 at KENT 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snapGo for it77.8%−0.821% to convertField goalTheir call78.5%80% to makePunt75.5%−3.0average punt
- Q2 8:15KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.3%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%average punt
- Q2 0:57OHIO 4th & 13 at KENT 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snapGo for it82.3%−1.320% to convertField goalTheir call83.6%64% to makePunt80.3%−3.3average punt
- Q2 0:10KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 14, down 10Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 13.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.9%−1.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.2%average punt
- Q3 14:53KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it14.0%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q3 7:54KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 4, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it4.6%−2.015% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q3 6:35KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 21, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 43, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:48OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 30, up 38Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:09KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 30, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:03OHIO 4th & 11 at OHIO 37, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 9:20KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 47, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:45OHIO 4th & 1 at KENT 12, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.186% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 2:39KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 11, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q2 8:15OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:59OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:43OHIO Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:09OHIO Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:49OHIO Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:45OHIO Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
86.0%
Rourke, Nathan pass incomplete to Meyer, Andrew, PENALTY KENT pass interference 15 yards to the OHIO39, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
86.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 48 A.J. Ouellette fumbled, forced by Jon Cunningham, recovered by KntSt Juantez McRaeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
OHIODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-5
84.6%
White, Papi rush for 15 yards to the OHIO28 (McRAE, Juantez), PENALTY OHIO illegal formation 5 yards to the OHIO8, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4FG5 plays · 44 yds · 1:5216% → 17%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+36
83.7%
George Bollas pass complete to Will Matthews for 36 yds to the Ohio 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
83.4%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 5 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+3
83.6%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 3 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 27 yds · 5:0118% → 20%
OHIODrive 7FG9 plays · 47 yds · 4:0080% → 79%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
79.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 33 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-6
80.6%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Theo Eboigbe and James Alexander for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 21Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 6
OPP 11
-6
80.1%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Jim Jones and Devante Lee for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
78.6%
Justin Rankin run for 14 yds to the KntSt 31 Justin Rankin fumbled, forced by Chad Moore, recovered by Ohio Kylan NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9TD6 plays · 31 yds · 2:2081% → 85%
KENTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 8:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
84.1%
Derek Adams punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kylan Nelson at the Ohio 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11FG12 plays · 53 yds · 5:1184% → 85%
KENTDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · -2 yds · 0:4214% → 14%
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+6
85.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Trey Harrell for 6 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
85.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 1 yd to the KntSt 24Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 1
OWN 24
-10
86.1%
ADAMS, Derek punt 61 yards to the OHIO15, out-of-bounds, PENALTY KENT holding 10 yards to the KENT14, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.9%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Mike Carrigan for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+4
85.0%
Derek Adams punt for 50 yds , Kylan Nelson returns for 4 yds to the Ohio 48 OHIO Penalty, illegal block (5 Yards) to the Ohio 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD10 plays · 95 yds · 3:4586% → 95%
Q3 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+19
85.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 19 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Jamal ParkerSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-9
87.5%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Theo Majette for a loss of 9 yards to the Ohio 35Similar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+15
86.1%
Farkas, Michael punt 49 yards to the KENT16, downed, PENALTY KENT roughing the kicker 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 7:54
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
93.6%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Justin Rankin, broken up by Javon HaganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD3 plays · 46 yds · 0:4895% → 98%
KENTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
97.7%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Justin Rankin, broken up by Bradd EllisSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
97.7%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Trey Harrell, broken up by Tyler GullettSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+2
97.8%
Derek Adams punt for 43 yds , Kylan Nelson returns for 2 yds to the Ohio 23 OHIO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Ohio 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18TD5 plays · 72 yds · 1:2598% → 100%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew Meyer, broken up by Jerrell FosterSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+49
98.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 49 yds to the KntSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
98.2%
Rourke, Nathan pass incomplete to Meyer, Andrew, PENALTY KENT holding 6 yards to the KENT6, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Mason Morgan for 6 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.8%
Dustin Crum pass intercepted Chad Moore return for 2 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD5 plays · 25 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q3 3:57
2ND & 0
OPP 8
+4
99.7%
Rourke, Nathan rush for loss of 5 yards to the KENT13 (MOORE, Marques), PENALTY KENT face mask 4 yards to the KENT4, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Mason Morgan for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q3 1:42
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-6
99.9%
Dustin Crum sacked by Jalen Fox for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 40Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Johnny Woods for 3 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+12
99.9%
Derek Adams punt for 45 yds , DL Knock returns for 12 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:48
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+8
99.8%
Michael Farkas punt for 48 yds , Raymond James returns for 8 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by KntSt Raymond JamesSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-3
99.9%
Dustin Crum sacked by Andrew Payne and Will Evans for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 30Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Derek Adams punt for 35 yds , DL Knock returns for 3 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:03
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 40 yds , Raymond James returns for 2 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OHIODrive 26TD5 plays · 81 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
100.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Matt Seymour for 6 yds to the KntSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 27PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-5
100.0%
Dustin Crum run for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 9 Dustin Crum fumbled, forced by Chukwudi Chukwu, recovered by KntSt Kesean Gamble , return for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 28END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:59
Dorian Brown run for 39 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q2 8:15
Nathan Rourke run for 6 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q3 6:43
A.J. Ouellette run for 37 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+2.4