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CMU

Central Michigan 56 at Ball State 9

BALL
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:34 · Nathan Snyder punt for 47 yds, downed at the CMich 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense−6.6Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−2.4Pregame prior−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:50: Morgan Hagee 41 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +2.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 6:39: Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 34 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +10.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:00: Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 31 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +10.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:15: Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +7.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:17: Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 63 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +6.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 8 of 13CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:06BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:53CMU 4th & 14 at BALL 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    57.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:01BALL 4th & 3 at CMU 23, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:50BALL 4th & 3 at CMU 24, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:43CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:46BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 44, down 1
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:34BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 16, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:54BALL 4th & 10 at midfield, down 15
    Close callPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:12BALL 4th & 2 at CMU 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−2.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:53BALL 4th & 16 at CMU 26, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−3.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−8.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:53CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 29, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:26BALL 4th & 4 at CMU 32, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:17BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 23, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:17CMU 4th & 2 at BALL 30, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 37, down 26
    Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:11BALL 4th & 17 at BALL 45, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:46CMU 4th & 2 at BALL 38, up 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:06CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:39CMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:00CMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:15CMU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:17CMU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:24CMU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:11CMU Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:04CMU Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Danny Pinter for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
44.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
44.2%
Jack Milas sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
44.2%
Nathan Snyder punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:0856% → 57%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
44.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 3 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
44.5%
Shane Morris run for no gain to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+10
44.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 10 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
44.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
44.5%
Tony Poljan run for 6 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+11
44.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 11 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
43.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
43.9%
Jack Milas sacked by Nate Brisson-Fast for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
43.6%
Jack Milas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
43.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 20 yds, downed at the BalSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
42.7%
Bailey Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
42.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 9 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
42.7%
Shane Morris sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-1
42.9%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 14
OPP 42
0
43.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Cameron ColeSimilar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
43.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:5743% → 46%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
43.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+24
43.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Markice Hurt for 24 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
43.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Markice Hurt for 6 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
44.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
44.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
44.1%
Jack Milas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
44.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 12 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
44.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Malik Dunner for 5 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
44.5%
Malik Dunner run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+2
44.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Devin Reece for 2 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
45.6%
Morgan Hagee 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5655% → 54%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
45.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
44.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-4
44.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 6 yds to the CMich 40 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+7
45.1%
Shane Morris run for 7 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-5
44.8%
Shane Morris sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
46.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:0547% → 48%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
46.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
46.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Justin Hall for 2 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+7
46.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
47.5%
MILAS, Jack rush for 7 yards to the CMU24, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BALL holding (GIVAN, Nolan) 10 yards to the CMU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 20
OPP 41
0
45.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Malik DunnerSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+8
45.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+9
45.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to Antwan Davis for 9 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
48.2%
Morgan Hagee 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
46.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-1
46.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
47.1%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Cameron ColeSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
47.8%
Jack Sheldon punt for 46 yds, downed at the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
48.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Nolan Givan for 5 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
49.3%
Markice Hurt run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
48.7%
Jack Milas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
47.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:4154% → 66%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
46.3%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+30
45.8%
Romello Ross run for 30 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
44.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
44.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Darwyn Kelly for 7 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
44.4%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
34.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 34 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
36.1%
Jack Milas sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 16Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 15
OWN 16
0
36.0%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
35.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Nolan GivanSimilar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
34.7%
Nathan Snyder punt for 47 yds, downed at the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:3465% → 76%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
35.0%
Romello Ross run for 14 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
33.9%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
33.9%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+9
34.2%
Tony Poljan run for 9 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
33.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
33.7%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+31
23.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 31 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
28.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
29.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to Riley Miller for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
29.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
50
0
29.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
50
0
29.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Markice HurtSimilar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 10
50
0
28.8%
Jack Milas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 10
50
+6
28.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Jerrod Davis blocked by Jerrod Davis Tee'ondre Harvey return for 6 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:1079% → 87%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
20.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 9 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
13.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15END OF HALF
12 plays · 26 yds · 1:0219% → 23%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
18.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Riley Miller for 15 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
20.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
20.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Nolan Givan for 8 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
20.4%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Nolan Givan, broken up by Alex BrionesSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+3
20.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Justin Hall for 3 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
20.3%
Jack Milas sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-2
19.6%
Jack Milas sacked by Nate Brisson-Fast for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 42Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+5
23.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Cody Rudy for 5 yds to the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 30 Jonathan Ward fumbled, forced by Anthony Winbush, recovered by BalSt Lamar AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17FG
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:5820% → 18%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
20.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+5
20.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
20.6%
Jack Milas run for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+2
20.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-8
20.3%
Jack Milas sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 26 Jack Milas fumbled, recovered by BalSt Caleb Huntley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+43
17.9%
Morgan Hagee 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.8%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
12.7%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
12.9%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
13.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 38 yds , Riley Miller returns for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
16.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+12
16.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Nolan Givan for 12 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
18.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 6
50
+4
18.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Antwan Davis for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+8
18.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 8 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
18.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+7
18.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to Keidren Davis for 7 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-2
18.7%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 4
OPP 32
-6
18.0%
Jack Milas sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:4592% → 98%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
8.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
8.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+63
2.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 63 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.7%
Markice Hurt run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.7%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Keidren Davis) to the BalSt 20Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
2.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Kyle Schrank for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
2.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+15
2.6%
Nathan Snyder punt for 43 yds , Mark Chapman returns for 15 yds to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0798% → 99%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
1.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Kumehnnu Gwilly for 9 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
1.6%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
1.6%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
1.7%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
1.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Eric CooperSimilar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+12
0.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 12 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
1.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
1.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
1.6%
Zack Blair run for 1 yd to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+2
1.5%
Zack Blair pass complete to Justin Hall for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
1.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 47 yds, downed at the CMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:4699% → 100%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
0.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 14 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
0.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 3 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+18
0.8%
Shane Morris run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (Lamar Anderson) to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.7%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
0.8%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 11
50
+15
0.8%
MORRIS, Shane pass incomplete to COLE, Cameron, PENALTY BALL pass interference (MILLER, Josh) 15 yards to the BALL35, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
0.7%
Tony Poljan run for 1 yd to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+30
0.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 30 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-27
0.3%
Alonzo McCoy 27 Yd Fumble Return (Michael Armstrong Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Trevor Conklin) to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.3%
Markice Hurt run for no gain to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
0.3%
Zack Blair pass complete to Antwan Davis for 7 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
0.3%
Markice Hurt run for 5 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.3%
Zack Blair pass incomplete to Devin ReeceSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
0.3%
Markice Hurt run for no gain to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-7
0.3%
Zack Blair sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Nathan Snyder punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
0.2%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+9
0.2%
Romello Ross run for 9 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
0.2%
Tony Poljan run for 4 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.2%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+21
0.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 6 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (Marc Walton) to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
0.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 4 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
0.2%
Romello Ross run for 10 yds to the BalSt 32 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
0.2%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+4
0.2%
Tony Poljan run for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+5
0.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
0.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28END OF GAME
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
0.1%
Zack Blair run for 8 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Alonzo McCoy) to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
0.1%
Markice Hurt run for 7 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+5
0.1%
Zack Blair run for 5 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.1%
Zack Blair pass incomplete to Keidren DavisSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
0.1%
Markice Hurt run for 3 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+2
0.1%
Zack Blair run for 2 yds to the CMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:39
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 34 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 3:00
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 31 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q2 1:15
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com