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BUF

Buffalo 14 at Miami (OH) 24

M-OH
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:03 · Kyle DeWeen punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense+8.6Pregame prior+7.0Score differential+2.7Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:23: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +7.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:23: Adam Mitcheson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — M-OH win probability +2.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 14:03: Kenny Young run for 35 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:43: Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:52: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 11 yds for a TD MIAMI OH Penalty, ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +3.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:09M-OH 4th & 7 at BUF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:09BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 45, down 10
    Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:53M-OH 4th & 1 at BUF 27, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%−1.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−6.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:53BUF 4th & 8 at M-OH 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:59M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:23M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:23BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:12M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:03BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:20M-OH 4th & 15 at BUF 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:06BUF 4th & 24 at BUF 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:52M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 37, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:25BUF 4th & 6 at M-OH 25, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:25BUF 4th & 7 at M-OH 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:16M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 15, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:20BUF 4th & 2 at M-OH 25, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:48BUF 4th & 21 at BUF 43, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:48M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:23BUF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:03M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:43M-OH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:52BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:5165% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+57
64.6%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 57 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
64.6%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+1
64.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the Buff 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
64.6%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
64.7%
Samuel Sloman 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
64.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-11
64.7%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Brad Koenig for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
64.8%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:2165% → 67%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
64.8%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 7 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+17
65.0%
Kenny Young run for 17 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+28
65.1%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 28 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
65.2%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
66.6%
Kenny Young run for 7 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
66.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+13
66.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 13 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
66.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Tony ReidSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
66.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 8 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
65.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
66.2%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 51 yds, downed at the MiaOh 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5MISSED FG
19 plays · 56 yds · 8:0168% → 70%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
67.6%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+2
67.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 2
OWN 12
0
67.7%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 2
OWN 12
+5
67.5%
KRAMER, Kyle punt 40 yards to the UB48, fair catch by OSBORN, KJ, PENALTY UB RU 5 yards to the MIAMI17, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
68.2%
BAHL, Billy pass complete to GARDNER, James for 28 yards to the MIAMI45 (WILLIAMS, Brand), PENALTY MIAMI illegal touching (GARDNER, James) 0 yards to the MIAMI17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
68.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+7
67.8%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 7 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
68.3%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
68.5%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 6 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
68.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+9
69.0%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 9 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
69.1%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
69.1%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
69.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
69.8%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
69.9%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 6 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
69.4%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+46
69.5%
Samuel Sloman 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
69.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Ishmael Hargrove, broken up by Cedric AssehSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
70.0%
REED, Emmanuel rush over left end for 4 yards to the UB31 (MCMULLEN, J.;ALLEN, Josh), PENALTY UB illegal procedure 5 yards to the UB22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+13
70.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 13 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+18
69.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 18 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Tony ReidSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
68.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
68.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
69.7%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
69.9%
BAHL, Billy pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMI holding (RIGG, Jordan) 7 yards to the MIAMI8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 17
OWN 8
-2
69.5%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 19
OWN 6
+10
69.3%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 10 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
69.1%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Kobe GreenSimilar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+10
68.6%
Kyle Kramer punt for 58 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 10 yds to the MiaOh 26 MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the MiaOh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:5231% → 39%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
69.5%
Theo Anderson run for no gain to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
69.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Deondre DanielsSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+37
70.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 37 yds to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
68.3%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
68.3%
Theo Anderson run for no gain to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
61.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.9%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
65.0%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
64.9%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
63.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
64.3%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass incomplete to HARGROVE, Ishma, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (DANIELS, D.) 15 yards to the UB33, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
63.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
63.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Cedric AssehSimilar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
64.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
65.7%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 43 yds, downed at the MiaOh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
64.5%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
64.2%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
63.3%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Ryan Smith, broken up by Jarrett FranklinSimilar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
62.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
63.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
63.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Buff 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.9%
Kyle Vantrease run for 8 yds to the Buff 35 Kyle Vantrease fumbled, forced by Ikeem Allen, recovered by MiaOh Joshua AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
78.5%
Kenny Young run for 35 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 5 yds Anthony Johnson fumbled, recovered by Buff Tyler MabrySimilar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
75.6%
Theo Anderson run for 1 yd to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
76.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Cedric AssehSimilar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
77.0%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0080% → 77%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
50
0
79.5%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
50
+2
79.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+10
78.4%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Kenny Young for 10 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
79.6%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-15
79.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Alonzo Smith) to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 28
OWN 44
+6
78.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 22
50
+7
77.6%
Kenny Young run for 7 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 15
OPP 43
+18
76.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 10 MIAMI OH Penalty, kick catching interference (Sam Martin) to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.9%
Theo Anderson run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
78.3%
Theo Anderson run for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
79.1%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Anthon, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (ALLEN, Josh) 15 yards to the UB46, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
77.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
77.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-15
77.9%
ANDERSON, Theo rush up middle for 16 yards to the MIAMI36 (ALLEN, Josh), PENALTY UB personal foul (JACK-KURDYLA, T) 15 yards to the UB33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 23
OWN 33
-1
80.1%
Theo Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 24
OWN 32
0
80.5%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:5482% → 94%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
81.5%
Kenny Young run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
82.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Collier) to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
82.9%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 15 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
83.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
83.0%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+11
82.2%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Kenny Young for 11 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.0%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the Buff 9Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
83.0%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Kenny Young for 8 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:437% → 7%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
92.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
92.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 15 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
93.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 15 yds Kamathi Holsey fumbled, forced by De'Andre Montgomery, recovered by Buff K.J. Osborn for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Tony Reid return for no gain to the MiaOh 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 5:2895% → 97%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
94.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+4
94.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+3
94.7%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
94.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
94.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+5
94.8%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
94.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
94.9%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+5
96.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 37 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 43 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for no gain to the Buff 37 MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 58 yds · 1:484% → 3%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
96.3%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Joshua Allen for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
96.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+20
96.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 20 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
96.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 6 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
96.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+13
96.2%
Theo Anderson run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
95.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
96.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 4 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
96.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+18
96.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 18 yds to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Cedric AssehSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Cedric AssehSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:1298% → 98%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
97.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+3
98.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+2
98.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
98.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 38 yds, downed at the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:281% → 5%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
98.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+13
99.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Kyle RowSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 8 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
98.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre, broken up by Deondre DanielsSimilar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+14
98.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 14 yds to the MiaOh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 11 yds for a TD MIAMI OH Penalty, ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · -11 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
96.0%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass complete to MARTINEZ, Jacob for 4 yards to the MIAMI42, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UB holding (KSIEZARCYK, Evi) 10 yards to the UB44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 20
OWN 44
0
96.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete, broken up by Doug CostinSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 20
OWN 44
0
96.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 20
OWN 44
+5
96.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 15
OWN 49
-6
96.8%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Doug Costin for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
97.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-1
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:03
Kenny Young run for 35 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q3 1:43
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 5:23
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com