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TOL

Toledo 30 at Central Michigan 10

CMU
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:57 · Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Home team on offense−23.4Pregame prior−11.5Score differential−11.5Garbage-time factor−6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:08: Terry Swanson run for 48 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:19: Terry Swanson run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +10.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:57: Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 22 — TOL win probability +3.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:27: Michael Armstrong 23 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +0.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:11: Logan Woodside run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED) — TOL win probability +6.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at CMU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:43TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:38CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:08TOL 4th & 1 at CMU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:08CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 5:37TOL 4th & 5 at CMU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 9, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:40TOL 4th & 3 at CMU 33, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−0.6
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:37CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:49TOL 4th & 3 at CMU 24, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:19TOL 4th & 2 at CMU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:25CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00CMU 4th & 24 at TOL 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:57TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 37, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:53CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:28TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:27CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 4, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−7.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:27TOL 4th & 9 at CMU 36, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:32CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:08TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:19TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:11TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:55TOL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:06CMU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
24.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 12 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
24.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 6 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+8
24.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 8 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
24.8%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+2
24.8%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+6
24.8%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
24.8%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
26.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+12
26.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 12 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
26.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
26.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete, broken up by Ja'Wuan WoodleySimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
26.2%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
26.1%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
26.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete, broken up by Darwyn KellySimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
26.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+2
26.9%
Logan Woodside run for 2 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
27.0%
Michael Julian punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
27.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
27.4%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
27.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
27.1%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:3073% → 74%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
27.3%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
27.3%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+7
27.5%
Art Thompkins run for 7 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+48
25.7%
Terry Swanson run for 48 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
26.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 3 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+2
26.1%
Shane Morris run for 2 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
25.9%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
25.8%
Zach Oakley punt for 55 yds, downed at the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
26.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
25.8%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
25.8%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
25.7%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+7
25.7%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
25.6%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+4
25.6%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
25.7%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
26.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3327% → 26%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
26.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+5
26.9%
Tony Poljan run for 5 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 9
0
26.5%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Kumehnnu GwillySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 9
+9
26.3%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 40 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 9 yds to the CMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2874% → 73%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
25.7%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
25.6%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
25.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
27.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
27.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
27.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
27.3%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
27.1%
Zach Oakley punt for 41 yds, downed at the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:5973% → 73%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
26.7%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+9
26.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Drew Rosi for 9 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
26.4%
Art Thompkins run for 11 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
26.3%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
26.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 4 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+2
26.5%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
26.6%
Jameson Vest 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
25.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
25.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 3 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+11
25.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 11 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
26.7%
Tony Poljan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
26.5%
Shane Morris pass intercepted Jack Linch return for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:3576% → 87%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
24.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 9 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-1
24.0%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+4
24.3%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
24.0%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
24.0%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-5
24.2%
SWANSON, Terry rush for 8 yards to the CMU33 (BRIONES,Alex), PENALTY TOLEDO offside (FISHER, Jordan) 5 yards to the CMU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+16
24.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 16 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
24.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
23.9%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+5
24.2%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+22
13.2%
Terry Swanson run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5418% → 17%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
17.6%
Shane Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
17.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+9
17.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Kumehnnu Gwilly for 9 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
16.8%
Zach Oakley punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
15.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
15.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+7
16.4%
Shane Morris run for 7 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
16.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
50
+4
17.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
17.3%
Shane Morris run for 4 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
17.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+15
17.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 15 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
17.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-10
17.5%
MORRIS,Shane rush for 6 yards to the TOLEDO23 (MATHEWS, Edrick), PENALTY CMU holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OPP 39
-2
16.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 24
OPP 41
0
16.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by DeDarallo BlueSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 24
OPP 41
0
16.1%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 22 yds, downed at the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
12.6%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
12.6%
Terry Swanson run for 10 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
12.5%
Terry Swanson run for 34 yds to the CENTMICH 34 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Elijah Nkansah) to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 18
OWN 24
+11
12.7%
Terry Swanson run for 11 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
12.4%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
12.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
12.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
12.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 4 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
13.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for no gain to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
12.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan Ward, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+48
12.4%
Zach Oakley punt for 48 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
10.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+9
11.0%
Logan Woodside run for 9 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
10.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
10.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 6 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-5
11.0%
Logan Woodside sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
11.4%
Michael Julian punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:2812% → 14%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
12.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 33 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
13.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 9 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+2
13.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
13.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 11 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
13.6%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the Toled 4Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
13.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
13.2%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+23
14.0%
Michael Armstrong 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 4:1689% → 98%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
10.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+8
10.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+16
10.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 16 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
9.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+39
9.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 39 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
8.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.1%
Logan Woodside run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
2.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+16
2.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 16 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
2.8%
Shane Morris pass intercepted Justin Clark return for no gain to the Toled 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:3998% → 98%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
1.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 17 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
1.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Sami Kassem) to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+4
1.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-1
1.9%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+3
1.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Liam Allen for 3 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
1.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 25 yds , Jonathan Ward returns for no gain to the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
1.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 8Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 13
OWN 8
0
1.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 13
OWN 8
+11
1.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 11 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
1.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1399% → 100%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
1.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+7
1.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+9
1.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the CMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
0.9%
SEYMOUR, Shakif rush for 1 yard to the CMU0, clock 03:54, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (HARRIS, Bryce) 10 yards to the CMU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
0.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.9%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 1:490% → 1%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
0.1%
Shane Morris run for 7 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Kumehnnu GwillySimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
0.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 5 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.1%
Shane Morris run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
50
+16
0.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 16 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
0.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 8 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+26
0.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 26 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:14100% → 100%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
0.5%
Nevone McCrimmon run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+3
0.5%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+4
0.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:19
Terry Swanson run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q4 11:11
Logan Woodside run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED)
-6.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:57
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 22
-3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com