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NIU

Northern Illinois 14 at Buffalo 13

BUF
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:55 · Kyle DeWeen punt for 39 yds, downed at the NoIll 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingOne-score game
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Pregame prior−16.2Home team on offense−1.6Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3One-score game−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:09: Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 34 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +6.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:14: Drew Anderson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +7.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:15: Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears — NIU win probability +13.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:18: [SGUN], REED, Emmanuel rush for 1 yard to the UB29 (JOHNSON, Jawuan), PENALTY UB holding (JACK-KURDYLA, T) 10 yards to the UB18, NO PLAY. — BUF win probability +12.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:31: Christian Blake run for 14 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST down — NIU win probability +11.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 12NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:02NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:54BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:46NIU 4th & 8 at BUF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:57BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:36NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:47BUF 4th & 4 at NIU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:55BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:51BUF 4th & 5 at NIU 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:16NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:04BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 27, down 1
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:28BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 44, down 1
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:01BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:10NIU 4th & 6 at BUF 26, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−9.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:10BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 35, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−2.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:44NIU 4th & 5 at BUF 35, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−1.4
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−3.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:42BUF 4th & 16 at NIU 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−6.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−16.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:42NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−6.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:04NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 47, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.7%−7.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:18NIU 4th & 1 at BUF 27, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%−8.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−28.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:18BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−4.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:00NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:09NIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:14BUF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
28.8%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Emmanuel ReedSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
28.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
28.8%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+5
28.8%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 54 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 5 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
29.3%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+3
29.3%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
29.3%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
29.4%
Matt Ference punt for 43 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
29.9%
Drew Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
29.8%
[SGUN], ANDERSON, Drew pass incomplete to MARTINEZ, Jacob, PENALTY NIU offside (JOHNSON, Jawuan) 5 yards to the UB37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
29.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
29.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
29.8%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
30.3%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
30.3%
Marcus Childers run for 8 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
30.3%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
30.3%
[SGUN], CHILDERS, Marcu pass incomplete to TEARS, Spencer (LEWIS, Cameron), PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the NIU40, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
30.1%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
30.1%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+5
30.1%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
50
+2
30.0%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
30.0%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
30.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
30.3%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
31.6%
Drew Anderson run for 13 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
31.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 4 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
31.9%
Theo Anderson run for 1 yd to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+2
31.7%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
31.4%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
32.5%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
32.6%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
32.8%
Marcus Childers sacked by Khalil Hodge for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
33.1%
Matt Ference punt for 45 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:2734% → 36%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+36
33.8%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 21 yds to the BUFFALO 39 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Mykelti Williams) to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
34.5%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 6 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+6
34.5%
Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
34.5%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
34.5%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
34.2%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
36.0%
Adam Mitcheson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4264% → 68%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
35.7%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
35.7%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
34.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 4 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
34.9%
D.J. Brown run for 7 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
34.6%
D.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
34.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 1 yd to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
34.7%
D.J. Brown run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+11
36.0%
D.J. Brown run for 11 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
35.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+18
35.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 18 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
31.7%
Marcus Childers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
33.4%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 5 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
33.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-4
33.0%
Drew Anderson sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
32.4%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 39 yds, downed at the NoIll 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:5467% → 74%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
33.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 9 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+9
32.3%
Jordan Huff run for 9 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
32.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
32.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 7 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
25.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 34 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:5027% → 37%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+27
27.3%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 27 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+40
28.3%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 40 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
29.6%
[SGUN], ANDERSON, Drew pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Anthon, PENALTY UB holding (NOSWORTHY, Paul) 10 yards to the NIU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+3
29.3%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 3 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 17
OPP 21
+21
36.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0066% → 68%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
34.0%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+4
33.8%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
33.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tommy Mister for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
33.5%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+4
34.1%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
33.4%
Tommy Mister run for 10 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
32.3%
Tommy Mister run for no gain to the NoIll 38 Tommy Mister fumbled, forced by Cameron Lewis, recovered by Buff Demone HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:5537% → 40%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
37.2%
[SGUN], NUNN, Antonio rush for 5 yards to the NIU33 (JONES, Bobby), PENALTY UB holding (KSIEZARCYK, Evi) 10 yards to the NIU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+12
35.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 27 yds to the NoIll 21 BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
37.2%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+9
38.1%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 9 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
38.1%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 19 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
38.1%
Drew Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
38.1%
Theo Anderson run for no gain to the NoIll 5Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
37.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
39.5%
Adam Mitcheson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3064% → 62%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
35.9%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
34.7%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+2
35.8%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 32 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
37.9%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0539% → 34%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
38.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
38.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
37.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+5
34.2%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 38 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.5%
D.J. Brown run for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
36.1%
D.J. Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
37.5%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+13
38.3%
Matt Ference punt for 44 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 13 yds to the Buff 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
41.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
43.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Mykelti WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+5
40.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 5 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
41.1%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 81 yds · 0:0061% → 65%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+24
39.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tre Harbison for 24 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
37.9%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+13
36.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 13 yds Daniel Crawford fumbled, forced by Tim Roberts, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
36.0%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+10
36.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 10 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
36.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Chad Beebe for 27 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
34.7%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the Buff 7 Marcus Childers fumbled, forced by Cameron Lewis, recovered by Buff Myles NicholasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
40.6%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (KSIEZARCYK, Evi) 3 yards to the UB4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+1
40.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+5
40.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+8
39.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 8 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
41.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
41.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+6
39.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 6 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+13
39.0%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 54 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 13 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:3760% → 59%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
40.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 9 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+26
38.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 26 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
36.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 3 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
35.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+1
37.9%
D.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
40.7%
Christian Hagan 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
43.4%
Anthony Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
42.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+9
41.2%
Kyle Vantrease run for 9 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
42.2%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
41.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
40.0%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
38.3%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+15
38.6%
[SGUN], CHILDERS, Marcu pass intercepted by WILLIAMSON, Rya at the UB25, WILLIAMSON, Rya return to the UB25, PENALTY UB pass interference (GREEN, Kobe) 15 yards to the UB40, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
37.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 1 yd to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-1
37.6%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+5
38.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 5 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
40.7%
Matt Ference punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23MISSED FG
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:1442% → 42%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
41.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 2Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-1
41.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+47
39.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 47 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
47.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+43
44.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 43 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
50.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
50.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
-6
47.7%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Bobby Jones IV for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+34
41.6%
Adam Mitcheson 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
41.7%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
40.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
42.9%
Marcus Childers run for 7 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
40.6%
Marcus Childers run for 14 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
38.1%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
37.7%
D.J. Brown run for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-10
38.0%
Marcus Childers sacked by Kadofi Wright for a loss of 10 yards to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
44.4%
Matt Ference punt for 50 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0044% → 50%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
43.8%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (NUNN, Antonio) 4 yards to the UB4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+22
43.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 22 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
45.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 5 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
45.9%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Bobby Jones IV for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 23 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Mykelti Williams) to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
47.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 11 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
50.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Jawuan Johnson return for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26MISSED FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:5763% → 63%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
37.2%
Jordan Huff run for 9 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
36.0%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
38.4%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
50
+4
34.9%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+10
35.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 10 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
34.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
35.0%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+8
35.5%
D.J. Brown run for 8 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+44
36.6%
Christian Hagan 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0049% → 44%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
49.1%
[SGUN], REED, Emmanuel rush for 1 yard to the UB29 (JOHNSON, Jawuan), PENALTY UB holding (JACK-KURDYLA, T) 10 yards to the UB18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 20
OWN 18
-11
47.8%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Sutton Smith and Ben LeRoy for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 7 Kyle Vantrease fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 31
OWN 7
+17
46.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 17 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
45.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
43.5%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 31 yds, downed at the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:5268% → 80%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
32.4%
Christian Blake run for 14 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
31.5%
Tommy Mister run for 5 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+7
23.6%
Tommy Mister run for 7 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
19.6%
Adam Buirge run for 1 yd to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
20.0%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+9
21.7%
Tommy Mister run for 9 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
19.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:15
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears
-13.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:18
[SGUN], REED, Emmanuel rush for 1 yard to the UB29 (JOHNSON, Jawuan), PENALTY UB holding (JACK-KURDYLA, T) 10 yards to the UB18, NO PLAY.
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com