Try the model
WMU

Western Michigan 71 at Buffalo 68

BUF
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · UB Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:04 · Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsScore differential
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 121Pregame prior−6.8Home team on offense−15.6Time remaining−0.9Defense timeouts−0.2Offense timeouts−0.1Score differential−6.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 8:47: Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 54 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +33.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 4:45: Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 24 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK) — WMU win probability +37.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Anthony Johnson 25 Yd pass from Drew Anderson (Adam Mitcheson Kick) — BUF win probability +36.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Jarvion Franklin 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — WMU win probability +35.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Jarvion Franklin 12 Yd Run — WMU win probability +59.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 11:04WMU 4th & 5 at BUF 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 34, up 3
    Close callPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:40BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:19BUF 4th & 19 at BUF 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:59BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 42, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:31WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 10, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:38BUF 4th & 6 at WMU 34, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:56BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−2.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:04WMU 4th & 2 at BUF 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−1.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:34BUF 4th & 4 at WMU 45, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−2.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 28, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:54WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:34BUF 4th & 3 at WMU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−14.0
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−31.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:44WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:16BUF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:51BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:19WMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:03WMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:59BUF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:47BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:45WMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1668% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
32.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 12 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
32.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-5
32.2%
[SGUN], PENALTY WMU false start (CALIENDO, Mike) 5 yards to the WMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+66
32.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 66 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+72
32.4%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 72 yds Kamathi Holsey fumbled, forced by Sam Beal, recovered by WMich Stefan Claiborne , return for 53 yds to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2068% → 68%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
32.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+8
32.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 8 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+5
32.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
32.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
32.3%
Jon Wassink run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
32.3%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
32.3%
Josh Grant 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4232% → 34%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
32.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
34.0%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 64 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
33.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 1 yd to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-1
33.9%
Jon Wassink run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 26Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+8
34.1%
Jon Wassink run for 8 yds to the WMich 34 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+2
34.0%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 38 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 2 yds to the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:4334% → 39%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
34.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
34.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+10
34.0%
[SGUN], ANDERSON, Drew pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Anthon, PENALTY WMU holding (JACKSON, Obbie) 10 yards to the UB42, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
34.7%
Drew Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+19
34.4%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 19 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
34.9%
Drew Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+26
34.9%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 26 yds to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
35.2%
Drew Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
35.2%
Jamarl Eiland run for 8 yds to the WMich 5Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+3
34.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the WMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
35.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the WMich 1Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7INT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
37.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
38.3%
[SGUN], WASSINK, Jon pass complete to ESKRIDGE, D'Way for 15 yards to the WMU42, out-of-bounds (SLACK, Tatum), PENALTY WMU illegal formation 5 yards to the WMU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+18
38.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 18 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.3%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to D'Wayne Eskridge, broken up by Brandon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
37.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
50
+6
36.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 6 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
36.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 5 yds Giovanni Ricci fumbled, forced by Cameron Lewis, recovered by WMich Jamauri BoganSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 20
OWN 40
0
38.1%
Jon Wassink pass intercepted Khalil Hodge return for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.5%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.3%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
38.8%
Drew Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+63
38.5%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUFFALO 20 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Obbie Jackson) to the WMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 4:4560% → 65%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
39.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the WMich 15Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+4
39.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+6
40.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 7 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
39.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
39.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
39.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
39.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 2 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
39.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Anton Curtis for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
38.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+48
35.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 48 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.6%
Drew Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
37.4%
Anthony Johnson run for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-1
36.6%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+35
36.2%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 40 yds, downed at the BUFFALO 44 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the WMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
35.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 9 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
35.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 4 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
35.5%
[SGUN], WASSINK, Jon pass complete to ERNSBERGER, Don for 9 yards to the UB29 (HARGROVE, Ishma;HODGE, Khalil), PENALTY WMU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UB43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+20
35.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 20 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
34.8%
Jarvion Franklin pass intercepted, touchback. Ryan Williamson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.1%
Drew Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
37.0%
Theo Anderson run for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
36.6%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
37.4%
Theo Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
37.1%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
36.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 7 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
37.7%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 57 yds, downed at the WMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
37.7%
Jon Wassink run for 1 yd to the WMich 2Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+6
37.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 6 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+2
38.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+11
39.3%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 46 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 11 yds to the WMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 4 yds · 1:3841% → 40%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
41.4%
Drew Anderson run for 11 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
42.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (GOLDSBY, David) 5 yards to the WMU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-10
39.9%
[SGUN], ANDERSON, Theo rush for 1 yard to the WMU38 (BROWN, Asantay), PENALTY UB holding (LEFEBVRE, Zac) 10 yards to the WMU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 25
OPP 49
-9
39.5%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 1 yd to the Buff 48 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 34
OWN 42
0
38.8%
Theo Anderson run for no gain to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 34
OWN 42
+10
39.8%
Theo Anderson run for 10 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 24
OPP 48
+7
39.5%
Theo Anderson run for 7 yds to the WMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:2239% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
39.0%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 13 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
41.3%
Theo Anderson run for 10 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
42.2%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
41.8%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
40.4%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 5 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
41.2%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Stefan ClaiborneSimilar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
40.9%
Jamarl Eiland run for 4 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
40.6%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+51
38.7%
Adam Mitcheson 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:3564% → 78%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the WMich 35Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
36.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+12
35.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 12 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
34.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+20
33.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 20 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
32.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
22.0%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 20 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
22.9%
Theo Anderson run for no gain to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
22.8%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Jamarl Eiland, broken up by Stefan ClaiborneSimilar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-5
22.0%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (JACK-KURDYLA, T) 5 yards to the UB8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 15
OWN 8
0
21.4%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
21.2%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
22.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 20 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
21.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 6 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+7
21.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
21.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
21.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+1
22.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 22
-1
22.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
20.6%
Drew Anderson run for no gain to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
20.4%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Eric AssouaSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+26
19.6%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 26 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
23.1%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
22.6%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+3
22.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Theo Anderson for 3 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
21.5%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4880% → 79%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
20.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
20.3%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
21.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 5 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
21.0%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 4 , K.J. Osborn returns for no gain to the Buff 28 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (4 Yards) to the Buff 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 2:4718% → 45%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
18.1%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+19
18.0%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 19 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+53
19.0%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 53 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
23.7%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+11
23.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 11 yds to the WMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
23.7%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
45.4%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
33.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
33.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
32.3%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+1
34.5%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 49 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 1 yd to the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 1:4135% → 72%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
34.6%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 11 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
35.2%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 16 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
38.6%
Kameron Pickett run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+54
72.2%
Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 54 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:5338% → 82%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
61.8%
Jon Wassink run for 8 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-15
58.4%
[SGUN], FRANKLIN, Jarvi rush for 5 yards to the WMU48 (HARGROVE, Ishma), PENALTY WMU personal foul (MATICH, Nick) 15 yards to the WMU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+19
64.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 19 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
58.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+10
55.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 10 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
54.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Caleb Bailey for no gain to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
54.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Anton Curtis for 9 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
55.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
18.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 24 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:0533% → 59%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
32.5%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 12 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
33.2%
Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
35.1%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
34.3%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
36.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 26 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
41.9%
[SGUN], ANDERSON, Drew pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Anthon, PENALTY WMU holding (GINWRIGHT, Davo) 10 yards to the WMU24, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
41.9%
Theo Anderson run for no gain to the WMich 24Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
41.6%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+7
38.5%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the WMich 17Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
59.3%
Adam Mitcheson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26MISSED FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:2757% → 63%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
43.1%
Jon Wassink sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 38Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+16
47.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 16 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
41.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 11 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+52
37.4%
Josh Grant 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jarrett FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
64.5%
Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 14 yds to the WMich 11 for a 1ST down Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 14 yds to the WMich 11 for a 1ST down Drew Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
64.7%
Theo Anderson run for 1 yd to the WMich 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
64.7%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
62.4%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+5
58.4%
MITCHESON, Adam field goal attempt from 27 GOOD, clock 15:00, PENALTY WMU personal foul (ASSOUA, Eric) 5 yards to the WMU5, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.3%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 28TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
80.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the Buff 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
79.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the Buff 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
83.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
40.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 14 yds for a TD Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 14 yds for a TD Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 14 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 29TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 84%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 13 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 13Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
16.5%
Keishawn Watson pass complete to Jon Wassink for 13 yds for a TD Keishawn Watson pass complete to Jon Wassink for 13 yds for a TD Keishawn Watson pass complete to Jon Wassink for 13 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 30TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.1%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
64.5%
Anthony Johnson 25 Yd pass from Drew Anderson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 31FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0065% → 68%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
64.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Theo Anderson for 8 yds to the WMich 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+15
64.7%
[SGUN], ANDERSON, Drew pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Anthon, PENALTY WMU pass interference (JACKSON, Obbie) 15 yards to the WMU2, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 2
+19
67.9%
Theo Anderson run for no gain to the WMich 26 Theo Anderson fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by WMich Steven Clark , return for 19 yds to the WMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 32MISSED FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0060% → 49%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Buff 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the Buff 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+3
42.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Buff 13Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-2
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 15Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+3
43.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the Buff 12Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
51.5%
Josh Grant 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 33TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 85%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
40.5%
Keishawn Watson run for 4 yds to the Buff 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+13
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 13 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the Buff 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the Buff 2Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds for a TD, (K. Watson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 34TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0015% → 62%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
15.1%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+20
13.1%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 20 yds to the WMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
15.1%
Kameron Pickett run for 1 yd to the WMich 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
15.1%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.4%
Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 4 yds for a TD Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 4 yds for a TD Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 4 yds for a TD, (Anthony Johnson pass to Drew Anderson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 35TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
64.7%
Kameron Pickett run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 27Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
64.3%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+27
84.1%
Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-15
88.1%
ANDERSON, Drew pass attempt to OSBORN, KJ good, PENALTY UB pass interference 15 yards to the WMU18, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 36TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0024% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
75.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
78.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 11 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
75.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the Buff 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 37TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
40.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 19 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
40.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
40.5%
Jon Wassink run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
10.1%
Keishawn Watson 5 Yd pass from Jon Wassink (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 38TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0032% → 62%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
31.5%
[SGUN], ANDERSON, Drew pass incomplete to HOLSEY, Kamathi, PENALTY WMU pass interference (PHILLIPS, Dariu) 15 yards to the WMU10, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
31.5%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Kameron Pickett for 8 yds to the WMich 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
31.5%
Kameron Pickett run for no gain to the WMich 2Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.3%
Drew Anderson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 39FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
64.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 9 yds to the WMich 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+5
64.7%
Kameron Pickett run for 5 yds to the WMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
64.7%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
64.7%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 3 yds to the WMich 8Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
62.4%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Malik RuckerSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
79.3%
Adam Mitcheson 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 40TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
70.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the Buff 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+13
72.1%
Jon Wassink run for 13 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
70.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
11.0%
Jarvion Franklin 12 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Jarvion Franklin 12 Yd Run
-59.9
TD · Q4 4:45
Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 24 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)
-37.5
TD · OT 0:00
Anthony Johnson 25 Yd pass from Drew Anderson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)
+36.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com