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EMU

Eastern Michigan 15 at Toledo 20

TOL
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameTD+6.8TOL 79.1%Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD,(Jameson Vest KICK)AWAY 6 - HOME 10 · Q2 2:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:19 · Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+18.3Home team on offense+5.4Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score differential+0.2Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:19: Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +6.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:51: Art Thompkins run for 18 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +9.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:14: Antoine Porter 12 Yd pass from Brogan Roback (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — EMU win probability +22.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:27: Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds to the EMich 15 — TOL win probability +11.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:58: Jameson Vest 20 Yd Field Goal — TOL win probability +11.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 10EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:51TOL 4th & 10 at EMU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54EMU 4th & 10 at TOL 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:53TOL 4th & 3 at EMU 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:42EMU 4th & 8 at TOL 34, up 3
    Close callPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    25.2%−<0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:10TOL 4th & 12 at EMU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:18EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:19TOL 4th & 1 at EMU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:19EMU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 4
    Close callPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:55EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:41TOL 4th & 1 at EMU 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:25EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:08EMU 4th & 10 at TOL 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:01TOL 4th & 14 at EMU 35, up 8
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:36EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−1.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 27, up 8
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:10TOL 4th & 8 at EMU 48, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:58TOL 4th & 3 at EMU 3, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%−4.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−28.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:12EMU 4th & 9 at TOL 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:12EMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:19TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:51TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:14EMU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0982% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 22 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 5 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
81.9%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+4
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 4 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 32 yds to the EMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
81.9%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the EMich 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-11
81.9%
Logan Woodside sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 11 yards to the EMich 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+8
81.9%
Art Thompkins run for 8 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
81.2%
Jameson Vest 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5219% → 19%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
80.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 14 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
80.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+7
80.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 7 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
80.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 13
OPP 36
0
80.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+3
80.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
80.6%
Paul Fricano 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3MISSED FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 5:0180% → 80%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
80.4%
Art Thompkins run for 26 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
80.9%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+15
80.9%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea, PENALTY EMU pass interference (McGILL, Kevin) 15 yards to the EMU22, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
81.0%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 23Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-5
81.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the EMich 28Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 16
OPP 28
-15
80.8%
SEYMOUR, Shakif rush for loss of 2 yards to the EMU30 (CROSBY, Maxx), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal block (NKANSAH, Elijah) 15 yards to the EMU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 31
OPP 43
-5
80.6%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to THOMPKINS, Art for 7 yards to the EMU36 (CALHOUN, Vince), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation (WEISS, Brant) 5 yards to the EMU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 36
OPP 48
+13
80.5%
Art Thompkins run for 13 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 23
OPP 35
+12
80.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 12 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+12
79.8%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Di., PENALTY EMU roughing passer (CROSBY, Maxx) 12 yards to the EMU11, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
80.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the EMich 6Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
80.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the EMich 4Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
80.5%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the EMich 4Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
79.8%
TEAM 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:4120% → 25%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
79.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 6 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
79.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 6 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
79.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the EMich 37Similar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+6
79.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 6 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
78.9%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to BAILEY, Sergio, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (CLARK, Justin) 15 yards to the TOLEDO42, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
78.7%
Isaac Holder pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 27 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
78.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
76.9%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
74.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 11 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:1275% → 76%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
76.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
75.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 7 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
76.1%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
75.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 7 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
74.0%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.2%
Brogan Roback run for no gain to the EMich 35Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+29
74.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 29 yds to the TOLEDO 36 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.4%
Shaq Vann run for no gain to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
73.5%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
73.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Mathew SextonSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
74.5%
Paul Fricano punt for 30 yds, downed at the Toled 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:2973% → 69%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+31
72.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 31 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
73.3%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
74.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 10 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
74.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 23 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
75.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
75.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 5 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+7
74.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Rhett Blackman for 7 yds to the EMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
75.6%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 1 yd to the EMich 15Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-3
75.6%
Nevone McCrimmon run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 18Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
74.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+35
69.3%
Jameson Vest 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5231% → 28%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Mathew SextonSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-4
69.6%
Breck Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 16Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
71.3%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
71.9%
Jake Julien punt for 36 yds, downed at the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:4472% → 79%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
72.2%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 44 Art Thompkins fumbled, forced by Maxx Crosby, recovered by Toled Art ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
70.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jordan FisherSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+15
69.7%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Di., PENALTY EMU pass interference (McGILL, Kevin) 15 yards to the EMU41, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
72.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 20 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
73.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 13 yds to the EMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
73.5%
Logan Woodside run for 6 yds to the EMich 2Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
73.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the EMich 1Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.2%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the EMich 1Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
79.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 21 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
77.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
78.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 6
50
0
77.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Jaron JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 6
50
0
79.3%
Brogan Roback punt for 42 yds, downed at the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
77.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+12
77.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 12 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
77.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
77.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
75.5%
Ian Eriksen run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 22Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+6
75.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 6 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-14
75.9%
ROBACK, Brogan pass complete to PORTER, Antoine for 11 yards to the EMU39, out-of-bounds (HOLLMAN, Kadar;ROBINSON,Kahlil), PENALTY EMU pass interference (NIUPALAU, J.) 14 yards to the EMU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+10
76.7%
Ian Eriksen run for 10 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
77.1%
Jake Julien punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
50
+12
77.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 12 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
77.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 18 yds to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
78.1%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the EMich 17Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
78.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea Johnson, broken up by Ross WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+10
77.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 10 yds to the EMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
78.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Brandon Heidecker) to the EMich 12Similar
Q3 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
78.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
78.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Darryl Richards for 4 yds to the EMich 8Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
77.2%
Logan Woodside run for 7 yds to the EMich 1Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.0%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the EMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
76.2%
Brogan Roback run for 1 yd to the EMich 2Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
76.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+1
77.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 3Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+15
78.0%
Ivan Oraha punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 23 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal formation (Jason Beck) to the EMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
87.5%
Art Thompkins run for 18 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:4015% → 17%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+28
85.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 28 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
83.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
82.4%
Shaq Vann run for 4 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
82.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
82.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Shaq VannSimilar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
83.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
83.2%
Paul Fricano 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
85.3%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Luke Maclean) to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
86.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 6 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+11
86.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 11 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
87.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 11 yds to the EMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
87.2%
Logan Woodside sacked by Brody Hoying for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 36Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+2
86.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 13
OPP 34
-1
85.8%
Logan Woodside sacked by Luke Maclean for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 35Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 14
OPP 35
0
84.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 7 yds, downed at the EMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 13%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
85.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 2 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
85.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for 6 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-4
84.9%
Brogan Roback run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 32Similar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+46
86.6%
Jake Julien punt for 46 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
87.4%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
87.3%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+3
86.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 3 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
86.0%
Michael Julian punt for 50 yds, downed at the EMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:3914% → 40%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
86.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 7 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+23
85.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 23 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
83.5%
Shaq Vann run for 10 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
83.5%
Shaq Vann run for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+7
81.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 7 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
81.7%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+10
81.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 10 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
81.7%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the Toled 12Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
59.6%
Antoine Porter 12 Yd pass from Brogan Roback (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
70.0%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
71.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+16
68.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
50
+7
73.6%
Art Thompkins run for 7 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
74.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Rhett BlackmanSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-5
73.3%
Logan Woodside sacked by Desmond Kelly and Tyler LaBarbera for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 48Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
68.8%
Michael Julian punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
66.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+23
67.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 8 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Ja'Wuan Woodley) to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
64.5%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Jaron JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
65.3%
Brogan Roback run for 2 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+20
66.7%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Kahlil Robinson return for 20 yds to the EMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2978% → 88%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
78.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds to the EMich 15Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+7
78.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the EMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
78.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the EMich 5Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
78.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the EMich 3Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Jalen PhelpsSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
88.3%
Jameson Vest 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24INT
11 plays · 28 yds · 1:4622% → 17%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.8%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to BAILEY, Sergio (MATHIS, Trevon), PENALTY TOLEDO offside defense (ADENIYI, O.) 5 yards to the EMU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+8
74.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 8 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
74.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 13 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
70.9%
Shaq Vann run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 48Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
75.3%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Olasunkanmi AdeniyiSimilar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+4
77.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+11
84.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 11 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
80.2%
ERIKSEN, Ian rush for 5 yards to the TOLEDO32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY EMU holding (PORTER, Antoine) 10 yards to the TOLEDO47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
82.7%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Kahlil Robinson return for no gain to the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 14
OWN 27
-4
93.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:14
Antoine Porter 12 Yd pass from Brogan Roback (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-22.1
FG · Q4 2:58
Jameson Vest 20 Yd Field Goal
+11.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:27
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds to the EMich 15
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com