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CMU

Central Michigan 26 at Ohio 23

OHIO
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:01 · Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:59: Nathan Rourke run for 14 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +6.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: CENTRAL MICH Penalty, sideline interference (-15 Yards) to the Ohio 18 — CMU win probability +9.6 pts (now 38%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:12: Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 5 yds to the Ohio 48 — CMU win probability +13.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:16: Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +13.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:01: Nathan Rourke run for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +24.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 5:42OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:32CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:31CMU 4th & 16 at CMU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:49CMU 4th & 3 at OHIO 3, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    47.2%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−11.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:12CMU 4th & 5 at OHIO 48, up 6
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q4 15:00OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 30, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.8 ptsPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:35CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−4.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:11OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 37, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:48CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 13, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:59OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:46CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:59OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:16CMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    83.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:01OHIO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0175% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 8 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
75.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
75.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 5 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
75.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
75.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
75.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Troy Mangen for 11 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
75.2%
Rourke, Nathan pass intercepted by BUNTING, Sean at the CMU0, BUNTING, Sean return to the 50 yardline (Pruehs, Jake), PENALTY CMU pass interference 15 yards to the CMU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
75.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Troy Mangen for 10 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
75.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 9 yds to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:0825% → 28%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
75.3%
Shane Morris run for 4 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
75.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+7
75.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 7 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
75.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 7 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+9
75.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 9 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
75.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+5
75.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+19
75.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 19 yds to the Ohio 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
74.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 5 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
71.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
73.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Ohio 37Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
73.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
72.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
73.0%
Michael Farkas punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
72.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+18
72.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 18 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
72.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
71.7%
Tony Poljan run for 10 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
71.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
71.5%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+11
71.9%
Shane Morris pass intercepted Chad Moore return for 11 yds to the CMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:4973% → 73%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
73.2%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
73.1%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
50
+16
71.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 16 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
73.3%
Andrew Meyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
73.3%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete, broken up by Nate Brisson-FastSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+12
72.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 12 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
73.4%
Julian Ross run for 3 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
73.4%
Nathan Rourke run for no gain to the CMich 14 Nathan Rourke fumbled, forced by Joe Ostman, recovered by CMich Chris KantzavelosSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
70.2%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
70.3%
Shane Morris run for no gain to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+5
70.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 5 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
71.3%
Zach Oakley punt for 50 yds, downed at the Ohio 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:1871% → 79%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
70.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 22 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
72.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
72.4%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+9
72.1%
Dorian Brown run for 9 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
72.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
72.8%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+3
72.1%
Nathan Rourke run for 3 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
72.8%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
78.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 14 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:2824% → 23%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
76.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 24 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
74.6%
GWILLY, K. rush for 2 yards to the OHIO46 (Poling, Quentin;Moore, Chad), PENALTY CMU illegal formation 5 yards to the CMU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 15
OWN 47
-2
75.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 17
OWN 45
-5
76.2%
Shane Morris sacked by Cleon Aloese and Tony Porter for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 22
OWN 40
-5
76.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 27
OWN 35
+11
77.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 11 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
77.2%
Zach Oakley punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9MISSED FG TD
15 plays · 51 yds · 2:2477% → 72%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
76.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 9 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+2
77.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.8%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
76.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to A.J. OuelletteSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+11
75.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 11 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
77.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 7 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
78.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew MeyerSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+11
77.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 11 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
78.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 12 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
79.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to David Burroughs for 4 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-5
79.0%
Rourke, Nathan pass complete to Meyer, Andrew for 28 yards to the CMU0, clock 00:12, PENALTY OHIO illegal formation 5 yards to the CMU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
78.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+60
71.8%
Louie Zervos 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chris Kantzavelos Sean Bunting return for 60 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-15
62.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, sideline interference (-15 Yards) to the Ohio 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:3247% → 52%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
52.8%
Bailey Edwards run for 9 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
51.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 9 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
50.9%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+12
50.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 12 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
50.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Bradd EllisSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
50.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+17
51.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 17 yds to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
50.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 17 yds to the Ohio 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.5%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tony Poljan intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.1%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted Josh Cox return for no gain to the Ohio 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
47.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
48.0%
Tony Poljan run for 12 yds to the Ohio 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
47.7%
WARD, Jonathan rush for 1 yard to the OHIO11 (Porter, Tony), PENALTY CMU holding 10 yards to the OHIO22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+2
47.9%
Bailey Edwards run for 2 yds to the Ohio 20Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 18
OPP 20
+14
48.0%
Shane Morris run for 8 yds to the Ohio 12 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the Ohio 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
47.7%
Tony Poljan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 9Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
47.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the Ohio 8Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
48.5%
Bailey Edwards run for 5 yds to the Ohio 3Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
50.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan Ward, broken up by Javon Hagan CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14FUMBLE
13 plays · 50 yds · 0:0050% → 52%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
50.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 11 yds to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
50.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Troy Mangen for 5 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
50.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
50.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
50.9%
OHIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 20Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
50.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+30
50.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
50
0
54.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
50
0
54.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew MeyerSimilar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 10
50
+12
52.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Mason Morgan for 12 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
55.3%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
53.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew Meyer, broken up by Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-3
52.3%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 47 Nathan Rourke fumbled, recovered by CMich Trevor Apsey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
38.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 5 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
38.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 2 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-2
38.9%
Shane Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 48Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
40.9%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2045% → 42%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
44.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 5 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
45.2%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
44.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
41.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
37.5%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
38.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 9 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
36.3%
MORRIS, Shane pass incomplete to COOPER, Eric, PENALTY OHIO offside 5 yards to the CMU37, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
35.6%
WARD, Jonathan rush for 11 yards to the CMU48 (Porter, Tony;Shallman, Wyatt), PENALTY CMU holding 10 yards to the CMU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+4
37.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 4 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 16
OWN 31
-5
38.2%
Shane Morris sacked by Wyatt Shallman for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+9
39.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Kumehnnu Gwilly for 9 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 14:35
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
40.0%
Zach Oakley punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
40.0%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Brendan Cope, broken up by Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
39.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 3 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-7
38.8%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 35 Nathan Rourke fumbled, recovered by CMich Mike Danna , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:2174% → 88%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+25
25.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 25 yds to the Ohio 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
12.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.9%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the Ohio 37Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
17.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
16.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew Meyer, broken up by Darwyn KellySimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
16.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21SF
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:4288% → 83%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
12.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (-8 Yards) to the CMich 9Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
12.3%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 6Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+7
12.4%
Shane Morris run for 7 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
10.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Kylan Nelson CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
17.2%
Zach Oakley punt blocked by Tyler Gullett for a SAFETY blocked by Tyler Gullett for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4017% → 47%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
17.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 19 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
19.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+20
19.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 20 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
22.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 23 yds to the CMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
22.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 4Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the CMich 4Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
47.0%
Nathan Rourke run for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23END OF GAME
15 plays · 33 yds · 3:0069% → 85%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.2%
Tony Poljan run for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
30.3%
Tony Poljan run for 1 yd to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
31.5%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 7 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
29.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
21.3%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+7
20.8%
MORRIS, Shane pass incomplete to CONKLIN, Tyler (Ellis, Bradd), PENALTY OHIO pass interference 7 yards to the CMU47, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
18.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
19.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+11
17.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 11 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
15.0%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the Ohio 41Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
15.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:01
Nathan Rourke run for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+24.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-15.2
TD · Q4 10:16
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com