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NIU

Northern Illinois 28 at San Diego State 34

SDSU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:20 · Matt Ference punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+11.6Home team on offense+9.5Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score differential+3.3Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:00: Daniel Santacaterina pass intercepted for a TD Tariq Thompson return for 83 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:12: Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 8 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:17: Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Spencer Tears for 81 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +7.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:39: Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +14.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 14:15: John Baron II 21 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 12NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:49SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:12SDSU 4th & 25 at SDSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:16NIU 4th & 22 at NIU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:53NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:24SDSU 4th & 1 at NIU 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:08SDSU 4th & 9 at NIU 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:02NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:21SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 13, up 10
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:20NIU 4th & 11 at SDSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:08SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.5
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:31SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 29, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:36NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:15SDSU 4th & 3 at NIU 4, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−14.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:15NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:29SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 14, up 6
    Close callPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:29NIU 4th & 9 at SDSU 43, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−1.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:43SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−2.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:04SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 39, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:49NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:55SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:18NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:00SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:12SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:17NIU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:39NIU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:5323% → 24%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
77.5%
Daniel Santacaterina sacked by Jay Henderson for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+22
77.5%
Jordan Huff run for 22 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
77.5%
Jordan Huff run for 10 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
77.5%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
77.5%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
77.5%
Marcus Jones run for 7 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
76.4%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 34 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
76.8%
PENNY, Rashaad rush for 1 yard to the SDSU36 (WILLIAMS, Mykel), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+1
76.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+5
76.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
76.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
76.1%
Andrew Parchment run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 33 Andrew Parchment fumbled, recovered by SDSt Andrew AlekiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
78.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 33 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 5:3123% → 27%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
77.5%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 6 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+4
77.4%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Jordan Huff for 4 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
77.4%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 3 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
77.4%
D.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+6
77.3%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 6 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
77.2%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Marcus ChildersSimilar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
77.3%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+10
77.4%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 10 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
77.1%
Jordan Huff run for 9 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+6
77.0%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
77.0%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 9 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+9
77.0%
Jordan Huff run for 9 yds to the SDSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
73.3%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 10 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
73.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
74.7%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-5
74.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 10 yds to the SDSt 35 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 16
OWN 20
-6
74.5%
Christian Chapman sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 22
OWN 14
-3
74.1%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 25
OWN 11
0
73.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Shawun Lurry at the NoIll 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0427% → 27%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
72.6%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 7
50
+6
72.4%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Spencer Tears for 6 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-10
72.4%
HUFF, Jordan rush for 2 yards to the SDSU42 (CASSIDY, Troy;HALL, Noble), PENALTY NIU holding 10 yards to the NIU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-3
73.4%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to D.J. Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
73.4%
Matt Ference punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
73.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 23 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
74.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-3
74.9%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
74.3%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
73.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Shawun Lurry at the NoIll 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10INT TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:5828% → 25%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
72.4%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+4
72.3%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+15
72.6%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Ron Smith for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
71.9%
Daniel Santacaterina run for 2 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
70.9%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 8
50
0
70.7%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 8
50
+12
71.2%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 12 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
70.6%
Jordan Huff run for 12 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
70.1%
Jordan Huff run for 6 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+83
74.9%
Daniel Santacaterina pass intercepted for a TD Tariq Thompson return for 83 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 1:4423% → 20%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
77.4%
Spencer Tears run for 5 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
76.9%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by Ron SmithSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+7
77.5%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 7 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
76.8%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-2
77.9%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to D.J. Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-12
78.8%
Daniel Santacaterina sacked by Jay Henderson for a loss of 12 yards to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 22
OWN 26
0
79.8%
Matt Ference punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:4580% → 87%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
79.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+27
79.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
80.7%
Christian Chapman run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-2
81.0%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+21
80.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 21 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
81.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
87.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 8 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 0
OWN 35
0
86.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1914% → 14%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.7%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
85.7%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to D.J. Brown for no gain to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
86.0%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
86.1%
Matt Ference punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:4287% → 89%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
87.0%
Christian Chapman run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 7
50
-10
87.7%
CHAPMAN, C. pass incomplete to TRUXTON, Quest, PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 17
OWN 40
0
87.4%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 17
OWN 40
+16
88.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 16 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+23
87.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 23 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
88.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
88.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+38
89.2%
John Baron II 38 yd FG GOOD NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:3712% → 19%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
88.5%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the NoIll 19Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+81
80.9%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Spencer Tears for 81 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
83.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-1
83.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
82.1%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
81.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Shawun Lurry at the NoIll 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
82.1%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+8
81.7%
Marcus Childers run for 8 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
81.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
82.0%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
82.3%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+63
82.9%
Matt Ference punt for 56 yds SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (7 Yards) to the SDSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
82.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 6Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+3
82.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+4
81.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 2
OWN 13
+13
81.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 41 yds , Shawun Lurry returns for 13 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-8
80.9%
Daniel Santacaterina sacked by Chibu Onyeukwu for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 18
OPP 49
+7
82.0%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
82.0%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
83.3%
Matt Ference punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
83.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
83.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Nick BawdenSimilar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+3
82.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Chaz Collins for 3 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
81.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Shawun Lurry at the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:3618% → 34%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+50
82.2%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 50 yds to the SDSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
79.8%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Spencer Tears for 5 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
79.8%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.7%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
71.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest Truxton, broken up by Jawuan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
71.2%
Juwan Washington run for 8 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
71.0%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+7
70.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 49 yds , Ezra Saffold returns for 7 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
68.8%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
68.8%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
69.3%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+3
70.6%
Matt Ference punt for 37 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 4:0171% → 81%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
71.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 25 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
74.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+11
74.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Collin Andrews for 11 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
75.2%
Juwan Washington run for 15 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
75.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
75.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the NoIll 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-2
73.5%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 4Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
80.8%
John Baron II 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26PUNT
15 plays · 22 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
74.2%
SANTACATERINA D pass incomplete to TEARS, Spencer (KELLY, Kameron), PENALTY NIU pass interference 12 yards to the NIU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+4
74.5%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+3
74.8%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
76.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+11
76.1%
Daniel Santacaterina sacked by Jay Henderson for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
74.0%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 2 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
73.8%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+3
73.7%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Shane Wimann for 3 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
72.9%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
72.3%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Spencer Tears for 9 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
70.7%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
71.8%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
73.2%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
75.6%
Matt Ference punt for 47 yds, downed at the SDSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
84.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+3
84.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 2
OWN 14
0
83.9%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+12
83.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 42 yds , Shawun Lurry returns for 12 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0027% → 22%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
73.0%
Spencer Tears run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+4
76.0%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 4 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+2
76.0%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to D.J. Brown for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+35
77.6%
Matt Ference punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 17 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the SDSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0088% → 85%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
87.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to David WellsSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
87.4%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 8Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+5
86.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
85.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Shawun Lurry at the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 30INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
74.4%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+6
73.1%
Jordan Huff run for 6 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
72.5%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+5
71.3%
Marcus Jones run for 5 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+59
71.9%
Daniel Santacaterina pass intercepted Kameron Kelly return for 44 yds to the SDSt 0 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 31PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:1993% → 94%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
92.8%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+4
93.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+6
94.1%
Christian Chapman run for 6 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
94.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Shawun Lurry at the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 32INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
89.5%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
89.8%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Spencer Tears for 4 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+15
90.0%
Daniel Santacaterina pass intercepted Tariq Thompson return for no gain to the NoIll 19 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 33END OF GAME
3 plays · -21 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-3
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-2
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:39
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q3 14:17
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Spencer Tears for 81 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-7.6
FG · Q4 14:15
John Baron II 21 yd FG GOOD
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com