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COLG

Colgate 10 at Buffalo 33

BUF
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadCOLG aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreCOLG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:29 · Alex Mathews run for 2 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+22.4Home team on offense+26.2Score differential+24.7Garbage-time factor+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Blowout margin+12.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:55: Chris Puzzi 22 yd FG GOOD — COLG win probability +1.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: COLG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:48: Emmanuel Reed run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:40: Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +2.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Adam Mitcheson 26 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:38: Malik Twyman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Puzzi KICK) — COLG win probability +1.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: COLG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 5COLG made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:01COLG 4th & 10 at COLG 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:55COLG 4th & 5 at BUF 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00COLG 4th & 9 at COLG 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:40COLG 4th & 3 at BUF 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:07COLG 4th & 6 at BUF 41, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:20BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 44, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:29COLG 4th & 1 at BUF 7, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 46, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:42COLG 4th & 13 at COLG 18, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:37BUF 4th & 2 at COLG 22, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:37BUF 4th & 1 at COLG 10, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:33BUF 4th & 4 at COLG 4, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4COLG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:05BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:58BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:48BUF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:40BUF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:38COLG Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5594% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
93.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 12 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
93.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 9 yds to the Colg 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
93.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Colg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
93.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 7 yds to the Colg 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+7
93.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 7 yds to the Colg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
93.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Colg 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+15
93.9%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN, KJ (Mimms,Cortney), PENALTY COLGATE pass interference (Mimms,Cortney) 15 yards to the COLGATE13, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 19
OPP 22
+8
93.9%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the Colg 14Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-9
93.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Colg 7 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Colg 22Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
93.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
93.2%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
93.2%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
93.3%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+54
93.3%
Josh Cerra punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUFFALO 35 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4093% → 94%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+58
93.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 58 yds to the Colg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
93.8%
Anthony Johnson 14 Yd pass from Tyree Jackson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 4FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:576% → 8%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
93.6%
Grant Breneman run for 4 yds to the Colg 30Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+7
93.6%
Carmine Scarfone run for 7 yds to the Colg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
93.6%
Grant Breneman run for 22 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
93.5%
Grant Breneman run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
93.4%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
93.5%
Malik Twyman run for 5 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.4%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
93.4%
James Holland Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+23
93.5%
Grant Breneman run for 23 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.4%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
93.4%
Grant Breneman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.5%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
92.3%
Chris Puzzi 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:0293% → 95%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
92.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+9
92.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 9 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+25
92.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 25 yds to the Colg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
92.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Colg 30Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
92.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Colg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
92.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds to the Colg 19Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
92.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Colg 16Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+6
92.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Colg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
94.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:436% → 6%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
93.9%
James Holland Jr. run for 8 yds to the Colg 37Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+4
93.7%
Alex Mathews run for 4 yds to the Colg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.1%
Grant Breneman pass incomplete to Alex MathewsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
94.2%
Malik Twyman run for 1 yd to the Colg 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
94.2%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
94.3%
Josh Cerra punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:1495% → 97%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
94.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 9 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+5
94.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
94.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
94.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
94.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
94.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 1
50
+3
94.7%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Colg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+46
94.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 46 yds to the Colg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Colg 1Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 8MISSED FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 5:424% → 4%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.3%
James Holland Jr. run for 14 yds to the Colg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
96.1%
Grant Breneman pass complete to Tre Caine for 8 yds to the Colg 47Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
96.0%
Grant Breneman run for 4 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
96.1%
Grant Breneman pass complete to Nick Martinsen for 15 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
95.9%
James Holland Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
95.8%
James Holland Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
95.8%
Alex Mathews run for 5 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
95.8%
Alex Mathews run for 2 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
96.0%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+6
96.0%
James Holland Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
95.8%
James Holland Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.8%
Grant Breneman pass incomplete to Alex MathewsSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.0%
Grant Breneman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 0
OPP 7
+25
96.2%
Chris Puzzi 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG
18 plays · 71 yds · 3:5897% → 99%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
97.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
97.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
97.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
97.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY COLGATE encroachment (Esarco,Jacob) 5 yards to the UB40, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
97.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
50
+8
97.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Colg 42Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
97.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Colg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Alec WisniewskiSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+22
97.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 22 yds to the Colg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
97.8%
TEAM pass incomplete, PENALTY COLGATE offside declined, PENALTY COLGATE substitution infraction 5 yards to the COLGATE9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 5
OPP 9
0
97.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Abu Daramy-SwaraySimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
97.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+26
99.2%
Adam Mitcheson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:441% → 1%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
98.7%
Grant Breneman pass complete to Nick Martinsen for 15 yds to the Colg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
98.6%
Grant Breneman run for 2 yds to the Colg 46Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Alex Mathews run for no gain to the Colg 46Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+9
98.7%
Grant Breneman pass complete to Alex Greenawalt for 9 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.6%
Grant Breneman pass complete to Alex Mathews for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
98.5%
Grant Breneman pass incomplete to Alex GreenawaltSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
99.3%
Grant Breneman pass incomplete to Nick MartinsenSimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
99.3%
Josh Cerra punt for 31 yds , Jacob Martinez returns for no gain to the Buff 5 Jacob Martinez fumbled, recovered by Buff Jacob Martinez , return for no gain to the Buff 41 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Matt Otwinowski) to the Buff 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+17
99.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 17 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
99.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
99.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Cortney MimmsSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
99.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
99.4%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Abu Daramy-Swaray at the Colg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 12TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:510% → 3%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.6%
[SGUN], Breneman,Grant pass incomplete to Rockett,Owen, PENALTY UB pass interference 15 yards to the COLGATE39, 1ST DOWN COLGATE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Grant Breneman pass incomplete to Owen RockettSimilar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.5%
Alex Mathews run for 3 yds to the Colg 42Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+9
99.5%
Grant Breneman run for 9 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
99.5%
Grant Breneman run for 12 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.5%
Grant Breneman run for no gain to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.5%
Malik Twyman run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
99.4%
Grant Breneman pass incomplete to Tre CaineSimilar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+15
99.2%
[SGUN], Breneman,Grant pass incomplete to Caine,Tre, PENALTY UB pass interference (ROBERTS, Tim) 15 yards to the UB16, 1ST DOWN COLGATE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
99.5%
Grant Breneman run for 7 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
99.4%
Malik Twyman run for no gain to the Buff 9Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+2
99.4%
Alex Mathews run for 2 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
99.1%
Alex Mathews run for 2 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.5%
Malik Twyman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Puzzi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3399% → 99%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
98.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+11
98.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 11 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
98.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
99.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+17
99.3%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 50 yds , Abu Daramy-Swaray returns for 17 yds to the Colg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
98.9%
Alex Mathews run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colg 19Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+3
98.9%
Alex Mathews run for 3 yds to the Colg 22Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+5
98.9%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB offside (ONWUKA, Chibuez) 5 yards to the COLGATE27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-9
98.9%
Grant Breneman sacked by Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 9 yards to the Colg 18Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+5
99.0%
Josh Cerra punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 42 , Jacob Martinez returns for 5 yds to the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15FG
17 plays · 54 yds · 9:04100% → 100%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 15 yds to the Colg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Colg 36Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+6
99.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the Colg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Colg 29Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+1
99.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the Colg 28Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+6
99.5%
Theo Anderson run for 6 yds to the Colg 22Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+3
99.5%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the Colg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.5%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the Colg 17Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-5
99.5%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (WEBB, Jacquis) 5 yards to the COLGATE22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+3
99.6%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the Colg 19Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+9
99.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 9 yds to the Colg 10Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+4
99.5%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the Colg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.5%
Theo Anderson run for 1 yd to the Colg 5Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.5%
Theo Anderson run for no gain to the Colg 5Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.5%
Theo Anderson run for 1 yd to the Colg 4Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
99.8%
Adam Mitcheson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 16END OF GAME
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
99.5%
Grant Breneman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colg 20Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+8
99.5%
Alex Mathews run for 8 yds to the Colg 28Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+5
99.4%
Grant Breneman pass complete to Brett Gasiorowski for 5 yds to the Colg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.4%
Alex Mathews run for 4 yds to the Colg 37Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Grant Breneman pass incomplete to Brett GasiorowskiSimilar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-9
99.4%
Grant Breneman sacked by Kennedy Emesibe for a loss of 9 yards to the Colg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:40
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+2
TD · Q1 0:48
Emmanuel Reed run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)
+1.8
TD · Q3 2:38
Malik Twyman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Puzzi KICK)
-1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com