Try the model
TOL

Toledo 37 at Nevada 24

NEV
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:33 · Quinton Conaway punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior−28.2Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:52: Daiyan Henley 19 Yd pass from Ty Gangi (Spencer Pettit Kick) — NEV win probability +5.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:41: Terry Swanson 1 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +9.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:11: Ty Gangi 1 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick) — NEV win probability +9.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:45: Cody Thompson 8 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +10.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:36: McLane Mannix 75 Yd pass from Ty Gangi (Spencer Pettit Kick) — NEV win probability +8.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51TOL 4th & 7 at NEV 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:54NEV 4th & 7 at TOL 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:50TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:33NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:21NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at NEV 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:56NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:59NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:17TOL 4th & 5 at NEV 8, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:49NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.0%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:54TOL 4th & 11 at NEV 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−8.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:20TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:31TOL 4th & 5 at NEV 5, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:25NEV 4th & 2 at TOL 18, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:21TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:59TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:52NEV Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:41TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:11NEV Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:45TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:36NEV Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-3
19.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
19.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 11 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
19.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+11
19.0%
Kelton Moore run for 11 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
19.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
19.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:1180% → 79%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
19.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
19.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 13 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
19.8%
Terry Swanson run for 10 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
19.7%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+4
19.7%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
19.7%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
19.7%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
19.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Travis WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
20.7%
Jameson Vest 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:5721% → 22%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive offside (Marquise Moore) to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
21.0%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
20.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 32 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
21.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
21.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Justin BrentSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+5
21.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 2
OPP 25
-5
20.9%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Anthony Palomares) to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
22.3%
Spencer Pettit 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
21.5%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Di., PENALTY TOLEDO holding (FISHER, Jordan) 10 yards to the TOLEDO44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+2
21.8%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 18
OWN 46
0
21.9%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 18
OWN 46
+2
22.0%
Logan Woodside run for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
22.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Vosean Crumbie at the Nevad 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3823% → 23%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
22.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
22.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
22.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
22.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:0678% → 80%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
50
+3
22.4%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
22.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jordan Fisher, broken up by Asauni RufusSimilar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+15
22.5%
NEVADA Penalty, targeting (Asauni Rufus) to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
22.2%
Art Thompkins run for 7 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+3
22.1%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
22.1%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+15
22.1%
Art Thompkins run for 15 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 0
OPP 6
-10
21.9%
THOMPKINS, Art rush for 1 yard to the NEV5 (RUSH, Korey), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (HARRIS, Bryce) 10 yards to the NEV16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 0
OPP 16
+4
22.0%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
20.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
21.4%
GANGI, Ty pass complete to KINCAIDE, J. for 18 yards to the NEV44 (TEACHEY, Josh), PENALTY NEV tripping (PALOMARES, A.) 13 yards to the NEV13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+3
21.3%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+9
21.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 9 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
20.8%
Quinton Conaway punt blocked by Reggie Gilliam blocked by Reggie GilliamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1180% → 79%
Q1 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
20.4%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.4%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
20.5%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.1%
Reggie Gilliam run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
21.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Nevad 6Similar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+2
21.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+1
21.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+4
21.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 4 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
21.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
21.7%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
21.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Justin Brent, broken up by Kahlil RobinsonSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
21.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:5379% → 83%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
20.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 14 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
20.7%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+12
20.7%
Terry Swanson run for 12 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
20.7%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.3%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
17.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 10:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
17.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 32Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
17.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 4:5683% → 87%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
16.7%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
16.8%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+17
16.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 17 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
16.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
16.2%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
16.3%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
16.2%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+4
16.2%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+15
15.6%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody, PENALTY NEV pass interference (BROWN, Daniel) 15 yards to the NEV13, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
15.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 5 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
15.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Marcus LucasSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
15.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
13.3%
Jameson Vest 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:2515% → 23%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.4%
Ty Gangi run for no gain to the Nevad 25 Ty Gangi fumbled, recovered by Nevad Ty GangiSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
15.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brandon Scott for 11 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Justin BrentSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
15.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
16.0%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to MANNIX, McLane, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (CLARK, Justin) 5 yards to the NEV45, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
16.5%
Ty Gangi run for 10 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
16.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
16.6%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+10
16.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 10 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
17.1%
Ty Gangi run for 6 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
17.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive offside (Justin Clark) to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
17.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
17.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 4 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
22.8%
Daiyan Henley 19 Yd pass from Ty Gangi (Spencer Pettit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1179% → 80%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
21.1%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
21.0%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+2
20.1%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:1979% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.7%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
20.2%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
19.7%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
19.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
20.1%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
19.6%
Logan Woodside run for no gain to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
19.6%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
19.9%
NEVADA Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+9
19.9%
Art Thompkins run for 9 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
19.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 27 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, roughing passer (2 Yards) to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
19.4%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.3%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Elijah Moody) to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.4%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.7%
Terry Swanson 1 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:3012% → 22%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
11.6%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt (HOLLMAN, Kadar), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (HOLLMAN, Kadar) 15 yards to the NEV40, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
12.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
12.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+9
11.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 9 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+4
12.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 4 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
12.8%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to MANNIX, McLane, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (DAVIS, Daniel) 15 yards to the TOLEDO32, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
13.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 31 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.3%
Ty Gangi 1 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2681% → 93%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
19.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
50
+7
17.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-1
17.5%
Desmond Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
18.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 6 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
17.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 9 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+21
17.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 12 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Lawson Hall) to the Nevad 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
7.2%
Cody Thompson 8 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
17.3%
McLane Mannix 75 Yd pass from Ty Gangi (Spencer Pettit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 5:4283% → 82%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
17.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 14 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
15.8%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
16.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 12 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
16.1%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea for 9 yards to the NEV40, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal touching (JOHNSON,Jon'Vea) 0 yards to the NEV49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
16.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+10
16.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 10 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
16.0%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-10
16.0%
WOODSIDE, Logan rush for loss of 1 yard to the NEV38, fumble by WOODSIDE, Logan recovered by TOLEDO WOODSIDE, Logan at NEV41, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (NORWOOD, Chris) 10 yards to the NEV47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 47
+34
16.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 34 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
15.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
15.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Nephi SewellSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 12
-2
15.9%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
18.3%
Jameson Vest 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:0016% → 20%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+50
16.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 50 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
20.4%
Ty Gangi sacked by Tuzar Skipper for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 30 Ty Gangi fumbled, recovered by Toled Nate Childress , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
15.4%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
15.3%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-2
15.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
16.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds , Vosean Crumbie returns for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0012% → 14%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
12.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
12.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
13.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
13.7%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Ja'Wuan Woodley return for 7 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:1889% → 96%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
10.6%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 13
OPP 39
0
10.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for no gain to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+17
11.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 17 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
10.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+9
10.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
10.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Nevad 6Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
7.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
7.3%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 5Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
4.1%
Jameson Vest 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 70 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
2.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, OF (Marquise Moore) to the Nevad 17Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 5
OWN 17
+25
2.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 10 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Josh Teachey) to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
3.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 11 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
3.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 10 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
3.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 11 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
4.4%
Kelton Moore run for 8 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 2
OPP 18
0
4.4%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
3.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Trevion ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 2
OPP 18
0
3.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
2.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
2.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 14
OWN 25
-3
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:45
Cody Thompson 8 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)
-10
TD · Q3 8:41
Terry Swanson 1 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)
-9.6
TD · Q3 7:11
Ty Gangi 1 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com