Try the model
SDAK

South Dakota 35 at Bowling Green 27

BGSU
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadSDAK aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreSDAK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:41 · Joseph Davidson punt for 43 yds, downed at the SDako 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 197Home team on offense−31.2Pregame prior+2.0Score differential−14.7Garbage-time factor−13.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:37: Chris Streveler pass complete to Kody Case for 72 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK) — SDAK win probability +4.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:44: Chris Streveler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK) — SDAK win probability +10.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:16: Chris Streveler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK) — SDAK win probability +16.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:31: James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:43: Michael Fredrick run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK) — SDAK win probability +15.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12SDAK made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00BGSU 4th & 3 at SDAK 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30BGSU 4th & 22 at BGSU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13SDAK 4th & 3 at BGSU 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:51BGSU 4th & 13 at SDAK 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:04BGSU 4th & 8 at SDAK 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:58SDAK 4th & 12 at SDAK 25, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:14BGSU 4th & 2 at SDAK 44, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−2.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:19SDAK 4th & 9 at SDAK 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:37BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:17SDAK 4th & 1 at SDAK 41, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:27BGSU 4th & 8 at SDAK 23, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:33SDAK 4th & 4 at BGSU 13, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−7.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:56SDAK 4th & 6 at BGSU 27, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−6.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:39BGSU 4th & 14 at BGSU 41, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−3.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:22SDAK 4th & 8 at BGSU 49, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:13BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 18, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−4.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:14BGSU 4th & 1 at SDAK 23, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−3.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−13.4
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:45SDAK 4th & 12 at SDAK 49, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:24BGSU 4th & 12 at SDAK 21, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−7.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:41BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 29, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:52SDAK 4th & 7 at BGSU 29, up 16
    Close callWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2SDAK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:37SDAK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:37SDAK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:44SDAK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:16SDAK Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:31BGSU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:43SDAK Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:04BGSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
64.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Matthew Wilcox Jr. for 4 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+1
64.0%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, offside defense (Kameron Cline) to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+11
64.0%
Donovan Wilson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
64.0%
Donovan Wilson run for no gain to the SDako 37 for a 1ST down SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDako 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
64.0%
Josh Cleveland run for 6 yds to the SDako 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
64.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
64.0%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the SDako 41 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
64.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 40 yds, downed at the SDako 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 2TD
9 plays · 99 yds · 2:1136% → 38%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
64.0%
Chris Streveler run for 5 yds to the SDako 6Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+8
64.0%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Levi Falck for 8 yds to the SDako 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
63.9%
Michael Fredrick run for 6 yds to the SDako 20Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+51
63.9%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Josh Hale for 51 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
63.6%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Levi FalckSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
63.6%
Streveler,Chris pass incomplete to Case,Kody, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (JACKSON, Robert) 15 yards to the BGSU14, 1ST DOWN USD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
63.6%
Chris Streveler run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+5
63.6%
Streveler,Chris pass incomplete to Brooks,Alonge, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (JEFFERIES, Cam) 5 yards to the BGSU2, 1ST DOWN USD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.7%
Chris Streveler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
62.1%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+9
62.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 9 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
62.2%
James Morgan sacked by Alex Coker for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 13
OWN 19
0
62.1%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Matthew Wilcox Jr.Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 13
OWN 19
-9
61.9%
James Morgan sacked by Joe Kordus and Brian Woodward for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 22
OWN 10
+7
61.8%
Joseph Davidson punt for 45 yds , Kody Case returns for 7 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
60.3%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, delay of game (Chris Streveler) to the SDako 47Similar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+10
60.6%
Chris Streveler run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
60.3%
Ben Klett run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-1
60.4%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Josh Hale for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
60.7%
Brady Schutt punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:4160% → 61%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
60.3%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+14
60.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 14 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST down SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
60.5%
Josh Cleveland run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+35
61.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 35 yds to the SDako 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
61.7%
Andrew Clair run for 7 yds to the SDako 9 for a 1ST down SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, personal foul (5 Yards) to the SDako 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
61.1%
CLAIR, Andrew rush for 4 yards to the USD0, clock 04:40, PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the USD14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
61.0%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the SDako 13Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
61.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Hunter FolkertsmaSimilar
Q1 4:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
60.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Matthew Wilcox Jr., broken up by Alex CokerSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
61.0%
Jake Suder 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 6TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
57.1%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Kody Case for 72 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 8TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4844% → 54%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
56.4%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Brandon Colpitts for 9 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+3
56.3%
Chris Streveler run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
56.3%
Kai Henry run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (5 Yards) to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.3%
Chris Streveler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
56.3%
Kai Henry run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.6%
Chris Streveler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:3348% → 50%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+42
48.2%
Josh Cleveland run for 42 yds to the SDako 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
49.4%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the SDako 34Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
50.1%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+22
49.7%
Andrew Clair run for 22 yds to the SDako 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
50.1%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the SDako 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+1
48.2%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the SDako 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
47.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin Guyton, broken up by Phillip PowellSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
49.9%
Jake Suder 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
47.6%
Michael Fredrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDako 25Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
47.8%
Chris Streveler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
48.3%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Trystn DuckerSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
48.6%
Brady Schutt punt for 37 yds, downed at the BwGrn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0048% → 49%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
48.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 10 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
48.8%
Matt Domer run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
50
+7
48.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the SDako 43Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-1
48.8%
Matt Domer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDako 44Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
48.5%
Donovan Wilson run for no gain to the SDako 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
43.8%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Levi FalckSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
44.0%
Michael Fredrick run for 1 yd to the SDako 45Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
44.3%
Chris Streveler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+5
45.1%
Brady Schutt punt for 35 yds , Marcus Milton returns for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.0%
Josh Cleveland run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-15
46.7%
MORGAN, James pass incomplete to MILLER, Scott, PENALTY BGSU personal foul 15 yards to the BGSU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
45.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+13
45.5%
Josh Cleveland run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
45.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDako 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
42.9%
Chris Streveler run for 5 yds to the SDako 27Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+5
42.7%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Aaron Ramsey for 5 yds to the SDako 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
42.7%
Kai Henry run for 1 yd to the SDako 33Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-4
42.7%
Chris Streveler sacked by Kyle Junior for a loss of 4 yards to the SDako 29Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+5
43.5%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the SDako 34Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+7
43.0%
Chris Streveler run for 7 yds to the SDako 41Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+11
42.9%
Brady Schutt punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 35 , Marcus Milton returns for 11 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15FG
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:3342% → 45%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
41.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 40 yds to the SDako 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
44.0%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDako 26Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
43.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+3
43.2%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the SDako 23Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
45.2%
Jake Suder 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 16MISSED FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 3:5055% → 63%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
45.4%
Chris Streveler run for 2 yds to the SDako 16Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+15
45.4%
Streveler,Chris pass incomplete to Case,Kody, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (JEFFERIES, Cam) 15 yards to the USD31, 1ST DOWN USD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
44.9%
Chris Streveler run for no gain to the SDako 31Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
45.1%
Chris Streveler run for 9 yds to the SDako 40Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-5
44.4%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDako 35Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+30
45.3%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Kody Case for 30 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
43.8%
Chris Streveler run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
43.7%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Trystn DuckerSimilar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+9
40.5%
Chris Streveler run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
40.1%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Trystn DuckerSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
40.3%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Michael Fredrick for 3 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+3
40.3%
Michael Fredrick run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
37.4%
Ryan Weese 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17INT
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
40.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 13 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
41.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo Redding, broken up by Danny RamboSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+23
40.9%
James Morgan run for 8 yds to the SDako 41 for a 1ST down SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, personal foul (Brian Woodward) to the SDako 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
42.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
42.6%
James Morgan run for 4 yds to the SDako 40Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+17
42.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 17 yds to the SDako 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
44.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin Guyton, broken up by Dale WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
44.2%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+25
42.4%
James Morgan pass intercepted Doug Lewis return for 25 yds to the SDako 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
35.9%
Michael Fredrick run for 15 yds to the SDako 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.4%
Chris Streveler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
34.8%
Michael Fredrick run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
38.3%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Michael Fredrick for 10 yds to the SDako 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
37.2%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Shamar Jackson for 7 yds to the SDako 48Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+8
37.2%
Michael Fredrick run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
37.2%
Chris Streveler run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+12
37.2%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Shamar Jackson for 12 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
37.1%
Chris Streveler run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OPP 23
-5
36.9%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, false start (Riley Donovan) to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-10
36.9%
Streveler,Chris pass incomplete, PENALTY USD holding (Scheidegger,M.) 10 yards to the BGSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 17
OPP 38
-2
37.5%
Chris Streveler sacked by Dirion Hutchins for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+13
38.1%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Levi Falck for 13 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+3
38.7%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Trystn Ducker for 3 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
35.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 21 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
36.5%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 14
OWN 41
0
35.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
34.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
34.1%
Joseph Davidson punt for 53 yds, downed at the SDako 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 45 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
32.6%
Klett,Ben rush for loss of 4 yards to the USD2 (KONOWALSKI, D), PENALTY BGSU face mask 15 yards to the USD21, 1ST DOWN USD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+28
32.4%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Kody Case for 28 yds to the SDako 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
30.5%
Ben Klett run for no gain to the SDako 49Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
30.6%
Michael Fredrick run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
30.6%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Riley Donovan, broken up by Cameron JefferiesSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+1
32.4%
Brady Schutt punt for 35 yds , Marcus Milton returns for 1 yd to the BwGrn 15 Marcus Milton fumbled, recovered by SDako Aaron RamseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 22TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:0973% → 89%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
27.5%
Chris Streveler run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
27.5%
Kai Henry run for no gain to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
10.9%
Chris Streveler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
18.7%
James Morgan sacked by John Wessel for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
18.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
18.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin Guyton, broken up by Dale WilliamsonSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
18.4%
Joseph Davidson punt for 49 yds , Kody Case returns for no gain to the SDako 32 Kody Case fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:4321% → 32%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
20.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
20.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Deric PhouthavongSimilar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+9
19.9%
Josh Cleveland run for 9 yds to the SDako 23Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
20.6%
James Morgan run for 2 yds to the SDako 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
21.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
20.8%
James Morgan run for 5 yds to the SDako 16Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+7
20.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Donovan Wilson for 7 yds to the SDako 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
32.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 25PUNT
14 plays · 24 yds · 2:3974% → 78%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.6%
Michael Fredrick run for 2 yds to the SDako 27Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
25.4%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Kody CaseSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
26.2%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Michael Fredrick for 12 yds to the SDako 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
23.8%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Shamar Jackson, broken up by Brandon HarrisSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
24.1%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Shamar Jackson for 5 yds to the SDako 44Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
23.8%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Levi Falck for 7 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
23.4%
Streveler,Chris pass complete to Jackson,Shamar for 5 yards to the BGSU44 (JEFFERIES, Cam), PENALTY BGSU offside defense 5 yards to the BGSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 5
OPP 44
-10
23.2%
Streveler,Chris rush for 3 yards to the BGSU41, out-of-bounds (BALLEW, Nilijah;LAUTANEN, Nico), PENALTY USD holding (Anderson,Tanner) 10 yards to the USD46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
23.8%
Chris Streveler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+3
24.2%
Michael Fredrick run for 3 yds to the SDako 49Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
19.8%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Kody CaseSimilar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
21.6%
Brady Schutt punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:0725% → 25%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
24.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Josh Cleveland for 6 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
25.2%
James Morgan run for 5 yds to the SDako 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
25.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-12
25.1%
James Morgan sacked by Taylor Lambert for a loss of 12 yards to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 39
+25
21.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Quintin Morris for 25 yds to the SDako 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
24.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
24.5%
Donovan Wilson run for 17 yds to the SDako 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
26.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
26.2%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the SDako 15Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 21
OPP 30
+9
21.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Donovan Wilson for 9 yds to the SDako 21Similar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
25.2%
Jake Suder 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 27TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:3675% → 94%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
25.1%
Kai Henry run for 1 yd to the SDako 27Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+25
25.4%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Aaron Ramsey for 25 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
22.0%
Chris Streveler sacked by Shannon Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the SDako 47Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+8
23.9%
Kai Henry run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+7
22.5%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Aaron Ramsey for 7 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
22.0%
Chris Streveler run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
21.0%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to Kai HenrySimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
6.0%
Michael Fredrick run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:567% → 7%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
7.3%
James Morgan run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+5
7.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Josh Cleveland for 5 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
7.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Josh ClevelandSimilar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
7.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
7.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
6.8%
Joseph Davidson punt for 43 yds, downed at the SDako 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 29DOWNS
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:4095% → 98%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
4.9%
Michael Fredrick run for 8 yds to the SDako 36Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
4.8%
Michael Fredrick run for 4 yds to the SDako 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
4.6%
Michael Fredrick run for no gain to the SDako 40Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
4.7%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDako 35Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+15
5.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Jefferies) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
50
+1
4.5%
Kai Henry run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+17
4.5%
Chris Streveler run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
4.4%
Kai Henry run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
4.4%
Chris Streveler run for no gain to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+1
2.2%
Michael Fredrick run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 7
OPP 29
-2
2.4%
Michael Fredrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 30TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:401% → 6%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
1.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Donovan Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+9
1.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 9 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
1.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 7 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
1.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+49
1.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 49 yds to the SDako 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
2.1%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Josh ClevelandSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
1.6%
MORGAN, James pass complete to POUGH, Janarvis for 5 yards to the USD0, clock 02:15, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (GREGORY, Montre) 15 yards to the USD20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
1.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q4 2:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
6.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 20 yds for a TD, (James Morgan pass to Teo Redding for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 31END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
4.3%
N/A run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDako 48Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-2
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDako 46Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 13
OWN 46
-2
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDako 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:16
Chris Streveler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK)
-16.5
TD · Q4 9:43
Michael Fredrick run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Weese KICK)
-15
TD · Q3 4:31
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com