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HOW

Howard 31 at Kent State 38

KENT
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadHOW aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreHOW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:27 · Derek Adams punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Guy Lemonier Jr. at the Howrd 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+40.1Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.5Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:05: Anthony Philyaw run for 75 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK) — HOW win probability +4.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: HOW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:09: Caylin Newton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK) — HOW win probability +18.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: HOW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:35: Kesean Gamble run for 1 yd for a TD, (N. Holley Run For Two-point Conversion) — KENT win probability +20.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:56: Kesean Gamble run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) — KENT win probability +6.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:16: Caylin Newton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK) — HOW win probability +12.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: HOW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 7HOW made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00HOW 4th & 7 at HOW 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:29HOW 4th & 16 at HOW 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:27KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:03HOW 4th & 6 at HOW 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:07KENT 4th & 12 at HOW 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:26HOW 4th & 13 at HOW 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:07HOW 4th & 14 at KENT 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:41KENT 4th & 9 at HOW 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:45HOW 4th & 6 at HOW 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:02KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 31, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:48KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:52HOW 4th & 6 at KENT 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−5.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:45KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:46HOW 4th & 2 at KENT 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−1.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−8.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:52HOW 4th & 9 at KENT 14, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:45KENT 4th & 2 at HOW 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HOW made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:34KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:29KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:33HOW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:12KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:05HOW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:09HOW Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:35KENT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    80.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:56KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:16HOW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOWDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
93.1%
Dezmond Wortham run for no gain to the Howrd 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
93.1%
Caylin Newton run for 3 yds to the Howrd 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
93.1%
Caylin Newton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
93.1%
Damion Gillespie punt for 27 yds, downed at the Howrd 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
92.9%
Nick Holley run for 38 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 13:29
4TH & 16
OWN 12
+4
92.9%
Damion Gillespie punt for 30 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for 4 yds to the Howrd 38Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-10
92.8%
Anthony Philyaw rush for 23 yards to the HOW41, out-of-bounds (PARKER, Jamal), PENALTY HOW holding 10 yards to the HOW8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 20
OWN 8
-1
92.8%
Dezmond Wortham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Howrd 7Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 21
OWN 7
+5
92.9%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Da'Vaun Johnson for 5 yds to the Howrd 12Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 16
OWN 12
0
92.9%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete, broken up by Nick FaulknerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:2793% → 93%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
92.7%
Nick Holley pass complete to Justin Rankin for 8 yds to the Howrd 30Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
92.7%
Justin Rankin run for 1 yd to the Howrd 29Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
92.7%
Kesean Gamble run for 2 yds to the Howrd 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
92.7%
Nick Holley run for 2 yds to the Howrd 25Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
93.0%
Nick Holley pass complete to Justin Rankin for 25 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 5TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 0:497% → 8%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+75
92.8%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Jequez Ezzard for 75 yds to the KntSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.5%
Anthony Philyaw run for 1 yd to the KntSt 1Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
91.8%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Kyle Anthony for 16 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
92.2%
Myles Washington run for 6 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
92.3%
Nick Holley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+2
92.2%
Justin Rankin run for 2 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
92.1%
Derek Adams punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Guy Lemonier Jr. at the Howrd 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
91.8%
HOWARD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Howrd 5Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+8
91.8%
Anthony Philyaw run for 38 yds to the Howrd 43 HOWARD Penalty, Offensive holding (Jequez Ezzard) to the Howrd 13Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 7
OWN 13
-1
91.8%
Dezmond Wortham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Howrd 12Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
91.9%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Anthony PhilyawSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+2
91.9%
Caylin Newton run for 2 yds to the Howrd 14Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+6
92.0%
Damion Gillespie punt for 36 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for 6 yds to the Howrd 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.8%
Nick Holley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-4
91.8%
Nick Holley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Howrd 48Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+7
91.5%
Nick Holley run for 7 yds to the Howrd 41Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-5
91.5%
ADAMS, Derek punt 33 yards to the HOW8, fair catch by . Lemonier Jr., PENALTY KENT illegal formation 5 yards to the HOW46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
91.4%
Derek Adams punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Guy Lemonier Jr. at the Howrd 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
91.2%
Anthony Philyaw run for 2 yds to the Howrd 15Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+20
91.2%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Kyle Anthony for 20 yds to the Howrd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.0%
Caylin Newton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
91.1%
Anthony Philyaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Howrd 32Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
91.3%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Kyle AnthonySimilar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+6
91.4%
Damion Gillespie punt for 26 yds , Kavious Price returns for 6 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:3491% → 93%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
91.2%
Nick Holley run for 5 yds to the Howrd 47Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+11
91.2%
Nick Holley run for 11 yds to the Howrd 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
91.3%
PRICE, Kavious rush for 27 yards to the HOW9, out-of-bounds (Marcel. Allison), PENALTY KENT illegal formation (MARINELLI, Mike) 5 yards to the HOW41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+9
90.8%
Will Matthews run for 9 yds to the Howrd 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+1
91.0%
Will Matthews run for 1 yd to the Howrd 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
90.8%
Nick Holley run for 6 yds to the Howrd 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
91.0%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Howrd 30Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+5
91.0%
Nick Holley run for 5 yds to the Howrd 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
91.0%
Nick Holley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
92.6%
Nick Holley pass complete to Raekwon James for 25 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.6%
Anthony Philyaw run for no gain to the Howrd 30Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
91.8%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Kyle AnthonySimilar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+12
91.9%
Caylin Newton run for 12 yds to the Howrd 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
91.5%
Dezmond Wortham run for 3 yds to the Howrd 45Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+11
91.4%
Anthony Philyaw run for 11 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.2%
Dezmond Wortham run for no gain to the KntSt 44Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
91.3%
Kalen Johnson run for no gain to the KntSt 44Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+1
91.5%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Dezmond Wortham for 1 yd to the KntSt 43Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 9
OPP 43
-5
91.6%
HOWARD Penalty, delay of game (Dakota Lebofsky) to the KntSt 48Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
91.9%
Dakota Lebofsky punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kavious Price at the KntSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:5692% → 92%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.1%
Kesean Gamble run for no gain to the KntSt 17Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+9
92.0%
Nick Holley run for 9 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
91.9%
Nick Holley run for 2 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
92.1%
Nick Holley pass complete to Chalfonte Butler for 11 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
92.5%
Justin Rankin run for 2 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+38
92.5%
Mike Carrigan run for 38 yds to the Howrd 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
92.6%
Justin Rankin run for 6 yds to the Howrd 15Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+5
92.6%
Nick Holley run for 5 yds to the Howrd 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
92.6%
Nick Holley pass incomplete to Kris White, broken up by Tye FreelandSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
92.6%
Justin Rankin run for 3 yds to the Howrd 7Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
92.4%
Justin Rankin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Howrd 9Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
91.6%
Shane Hynes 26 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Richard Johnson N/A return for 13 yds to the Howrd 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 13TD
2 plays · 97 yds · 0:369% → 13%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
91.5%
Caylin Newton run for 9 yds to the Howrd 25Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+75
87.0%
Anthony Philyaw run for 75 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
89.3%
Nick Holley pass incomplete to Mike Carrigan, broken up by Tye FreelandSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
89.2%
Nick Holley pass complete to Johnny Woods for 7 yds Johnny Woods fumbled, forced by Bryan Cook, recovered by Howrd Tye FreelandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4813% → 12%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.2%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Anthony PhilyawSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
87.6%
Amir Lewis run for 1 yd to the Howrd 29Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+3
87.9%
Caylin Newton run for 3 yds to the Howrd 32Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+5
87.8%
Dakota Lebofsky punt for 40 yds , Kavious Price returns for 5 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:3488% → 87%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
87.6%
HOLLEY, Nick pass complete to PRICE, Kavious for 1 yard to the KENT34 (David Hudson), PENALTY KENT holding (72) 10 yards to the KENT23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+7
87.4%
Nick Holley run for 7 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
87.2%
Nick Holley pass incomplete to Raekwon James, broken up by Tye FreelandSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+1
86.6%
Nick Holley run for 1 yd to the KntSt 31Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+4
86.9%
Nick Holley run for 4 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
87.3%
Myles Washington run for no gain to the KntSt 13Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
87.1%
Myles Washington run for 3 yds to the KntSt 16Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+1
86.7%
Nick Holley run for 1 yd to the KntSt 17Similar
Q3 14:48
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
86.2%
Derek Adams punt for 35 yds, downed at the Howrd 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 18FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:5415% → 19%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.0%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Jequez EzzardSimilar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-3
85.5%
Anthony Philyaw run for 7 yds to the KENTST 45 HOWARD Penalty, Offensive holding (Marcellus Allison) to the Howrd 45Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+2
86.2%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Jequez Ezzard for 2 yds to the Howrd 47Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 11
OWN 47
-5
86.2%
HOWARD Penalty, false start (Aaron Hutchins) to the Howrd 42Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+50
86.8%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Jequez Ezzard for 43 yds to the KENTST 15 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (7 Yards) to the KntSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
83.5%
Anthony Philyaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 11Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
83.8%
Dezmond Wortham run for 4 yds to the KntSt 7Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
84.5%
Jequez Ezzard run for 1 yd to the KntSt 6Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
80.8%
Dakota Lebofsky 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
84.1%
Nick Holley pass complete to Justin Rankin for 3 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-2
84.7%
Nick Holley run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 35Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
83.4%
Nick Holley pass incomplete to Raekwon James, broken up by Bryan CookSimilar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 9
OWN 35
-6
82.6%
Derek Adams punt for 54 yds , Guy Lemonier Jr. returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Howrd 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 20SF
7 plays · -5 yds · 2:0918% → 16%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
82.4%
Dezmond Wortham run for 8 yds to the Howrd 13Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+4
82.1%
Dezmond Wortham run for 4 yds to the Howrd 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
81.9%
Anthony Philyaw run for 2 yds to the Howrd 19 HOWARD Penalty, personal foul (-9 Yards) to the Howrd 10Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 16
OWN 10
0
82.1%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Anthony PhilyawSimilar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+2
82.3%
Anthony Philyaw run for 2 yds to the Howrd 12Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 14
OWN 12
-7
83.1%
Caylin Newton sacked by Jim Jones and Jordan Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the Howrd 5Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 21
OWN 5
0
84.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by Howrd for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
85.9%
Kavious Price run for 8 yds to the Howrd 40 Kavious Price fumbled, forced by Tye Freeland, recovered by Howrd David LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 22TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:3719% → 41%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
80.6%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Kyle Anthony for 13 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
79.3%
Anthony Philyaw run for 18 yds to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
77.6%
Caylin Newton run for no gain to the KntSt 29Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
78.2%
Anthony Philyaw run for 1 yd to the KntSt 28Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+5
79.6%
KENT ST Penalty, offside defense (Nick Faulkner) to the KntSt 23Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+2
78.9%
Dezmond Wortham run for 2 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+5
80.2%
Caylin Newton run for 5 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.6%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Kyle AnthonySimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
77.6%
Anthony Philyaw run for 6 yds to the KntSt 10Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+9
78.9%
Dezmond Wortham run for 9 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.6%
Caylin Newton run for no gain to the KntSt 1Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.8%
Caylin Newton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:2169% → 91%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
69.3%
Justin Rankin run for 9 yds to the Howrd 49Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
70.5%
Nick Holley run for 3 yds to the Howrd 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
70.6%
Kesean Gamble run for 3 yds to the Howrd 43Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
70.4%
Nick Holley pass incomplete to Johnny WoodsSimilar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+15
69.5%
Nick Holley pass complete to Trey Harrell for 15 yds to the Howrd 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
71.9%
Nick Holley pass complete to Justin Rankin for 11 yds to the Howrd 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
70.1%
Will Matthews run for 7 yds to the Howrd 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
70.1%
Will Matthews run for 2 yds to the Howrd 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
68.2%
Nick Holley run for 2 yds to the Howrd 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
70.1%
Nick Holley run for 5 yds to the Howrd 1Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.7%
Kesean Gamble run for 1 yd for a TD, (N. Holley Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0014% → 16%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.6%
Anthony Philyaw run for no gain to the Howrd 20Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
85.9%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Kyle Anthony, PENALTY KENT pass interference (PARKER, Jamal) 15 yards to the HOW35, 1ST DOWN HOW, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
84.7%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Dezmond Wortham, PENALTY HOW pass interference (Jequez Ezzard) 15 yards to the HOW20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+1
85.8%
Anthony Philyaw run for 1 yd to the Howrd 21Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 24
OWN 21
+15
86.1%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Kyle Anthony, PENALTY KENT pass interference (PARKER, Jamal) 15 yards to the HOW36, 1ST DOWN HOW, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
84.5%
Caylin Newton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Howrd 34 Caylin Newton fumbled, forced by Nick Faulkner, recovered by KntSt Theo EboigbeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 25TD
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:5691% → 98%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
90.9%
Myles Washington run for 3 yds to the Howrd 31Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
90.8%
Myles Washington run for 2 yds to the Howrd 29Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+6
90.8%
Nick Holley run for 6 yds to the Howrd 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
91.3%
Will Matthews run for 1 yd to the Howrd 22 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Nate Warnock) to the Howrd 32Similar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 19
OPP 32
+3
91.1%
Myles Washington run for 3 yds to the Howrd 29Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+10
90.9%
Justin Rankin run for 10 yds to the Howrd 19Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+10
90.8%
Will Matthews run for 10 yds to the Howrd 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
91.3%
Nick Holley run for 6 yds to the Howrd 3Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.6%
Kesean Gamble run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 26TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 2:363% → 16%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
96.6%
Anthony Philyaw run for no gain to the Howrd 21 HOWARD Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+56
96.7%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Kyle Anthony for 41 yds to the KENTST 48 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, targeting (Jon Cunningham) to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.8%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Kyle Anthony, broken up by Erik SimpsonSimilar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 0
0
95.6%
PENALTY KENT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY HOW unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
95.9%
Anthony Philyaw run for 3 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+15
96.3%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Jequez Ezzard, PENALTY KENT roughing passer (FAULKNER, Nick) 15 yards to the KENT15, 1ST DOWN HOW, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
95.6%
Anthony Philyaw run for 6 yds to the KntSt 9Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-5
95.6%
HOWARD Penalty, false start (Howard Warren) to the KntSt 14Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
95.6%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Dezmond WorthamSimilar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
96.3%
Anthony Philyaw run for no gain to the KntSt 14Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+10
96.4%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Kyle Anthony for 10 yds to the KntSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.7%
Caylin Newton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:2394% → 97%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
93.6%
Will Matthews run for 6 yds to the KntSt 24Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+21
93.8%
Will Matthews run for 21 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
94.5%
Will Matthews run for 7 yds to the Howrd 48Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+1
96.1%
Kesean Gamble run for 1 yd to the Howrd 47Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
96.1%
Will Matthews run for no gain to the Howrd 47Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
96.6%
Derek Adams punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Howrd 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 28INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
93.9%
Caylin Newton run for 4 yds to the Howrd 12Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 6
OWN 12
-5
93.7%
Caylin Newton pass complete to . Lemonier Jr. for 21 yards to the HOW33, out-of-bounds (LAWRENCE-BURKE), PENALTY HOW ineligible downfield on pass (Tyrone Ramsey) 5 yards to the HOW7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 11
OWN 7
0
94.0%
Caylin Newton sacked by Theo Eboigbe for 0 yards to the Howrd 7Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+15
94.3%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete, PENALTY KENT personal foul (MONDAY, D.) 15 yards to the HOW22, 1ST DOWN HOW, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
93.4%
Caylin Newton pass intercepted Demetrius Monday return for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:35
Kesean Gamble run for 1 yd for a TD, (N. Holley Run For Two-point Conversion)
+20.6
TD · Q3 2:09
Caylin Newton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)
-18.7
TD · Q4 3:16
Caylin Newton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)
-12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com