2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadUAPB aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreUAPB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:59 · Jamie Gillan 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:47: Warren Ball run for 12 yds for a TD (Tom O'Leary KICK) — UAPB win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 13:52: Tom O'Leary 34 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:35: Brandon Duncan pass intercepted for a TD Ulysees Gilbert III return for 30 yds for a TD (Tom O'Leary KICK) — AKR win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UAPB has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:59: Jamie Gillan 25 yd FG GOOD — UAPB win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UAPB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:00: Warren Ball run for 8 yds for a TD (Tom O'Leary KICK) — AKR win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UAPB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00UAPB 4th & 10 at UAPB 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 10:47UAPB 4th & 18 at UAPB 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 6:20UAPB 4th & 8 at UAPB 49, down 14Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%average punt
- Q2 13:52AKR 4th & 14 at UAPB 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.117% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%80% to makePunt98.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 7:59UAPB 4th & 8 at AKR 8, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%90% to makePunt0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:36AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 44, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 9:12UAPB 4th & 3 at AKR 48, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:39AKR 4th & 1 at UAPB 43, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goal99.7%−0.228% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 15:00UAPB 4th & 15 at UAPB 33, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:49AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 35, up 42Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 11:57AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 27, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 10:40UAPB 4th & 18 at UAPB 30, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:11UAPB 4th & 2 at UAPB 49, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 10:47AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:35AKR Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:00AKR Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:12AKR Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:44AKR Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:18AKR Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUAPBDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to KeShawn Williams for no gain to the ArkPB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2TD7 plays · 56 yds · 2:4399% → 99%
UAPBDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.3%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to KeShawn Williams for 15 yds to the ArkPB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 13
OWN 37
-5
99.3%
Brandon Duncan run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkPB 32 ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4TD8 plays · 80 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Brandon Junk for 10 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+45
99.3%
Warren Ball run for 32 yds to the AKRON 26 for a 1ST down ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, sideline interference (13 Yards) to the ArkPB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
99.3%
WOODSON, Thomas pass complete to CONEY, A.J. for 4 yards to the UAPB9 (White, Dave), PENALTY AKRON illegal block 15 yards to the UAPB28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 25
OPP 28
+16
99.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Anthony Young for 16 yds to the ArkPB 12Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+5
99.3%
WOODSON, Thomas pass incomplete to SMITH, Kwad., PENALTY UAPB offside 5 yards to the UAPB15, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 5DOWNS8 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
AKRDrive 6FG10 plays · 39 yds · 4:1599% → 99%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
99.2%
EDWARDS, Van rush for 2 yards to the UAPB30 (Odom, Jamal), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the UAPB42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+4
99.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 4 yds to the ArkPB 38Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+15
99.2%
WOODSON, Thomas rush for loss of 2 yards to the UAPB40, PENALTY UAPB face mask 15 yards to the UAPB23, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
99.2%
WOODSON, Thomas pass incomplete to CHAPMAN, T., PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the UAPB23, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 7INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+30
99.3%
Brandon Duncan pass intercepted for a TD Ulysees Gilbert III return for 30 yds for a TD (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 8FG15 plays · 67 yds · 5:321% → 1%
Q2 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
99.3%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for 18 yds to the ArkPB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.3%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to KeShawn Williams for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+11
99.3%
Duncan, Brandon pass incomplete to Jordan,Christia, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 11 yards to the AKRON38, 1ST DOWN UAPB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+13
99.3%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to Paris Mack for 13 yds to the Akron 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9TD8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5099% → 100%
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
99.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Anthony Young for 4 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+6
99.3%
Warren Ball run for 6 yds to the AKRON 46 for a 1ST down ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) to the ArkPB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
99.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 22 yds to the ArkPB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 4 yds to the ArkPB 20Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+12
99.4%
Warren Ball run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 15 for a 1ST down ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, personal foul (7 Yards) to the ArkPB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.8%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to Christian Jordan for 4 yds to the ArkPB 34Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+15
99.7%
Duncan, Brandon pass incomplete to McNeal,Kolby, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 15 yards to the UAPB49, 1ST DOWN UAPB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
99.7%
Duncan, Brandon pass complete to Ralph, Tyrin for 13 yards to the AKRON38 (LAKO, John;GEORGE, Jordan), PENALTY UAPB pass interference 15 yards to the UAPB34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 25
OWN 34
-9
99.8%
Brandon Duncan sacked by Jamal Davis II for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkPB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 6 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+12
99.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 12 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Nick Gasser punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Crayton at the ArkPB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
AKRDrive 13TD15 plays · 65 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-9
99.8%
BALL, Warren rush for 24 yards to the UAPB18 (Merriweather,Ri), PENALTY AKRON holding 9 yards to the AKRON49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 19
OWN 49
+14
99.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 14 yds to the ArkPB 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+6
99.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 6 yds to the ArkPB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
99.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 6 yds to the ArkPB 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
99.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 2 yds to the ArkPB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 14DOWNS6 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to KeShawn Williams for 4 yds to the ArkPB 49Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for 2 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Brandon Duncan pass incomplete to Paris Mack, broken up by Denzel ButlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15TD10 plays · 52 yds · 4:55100% → 100%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Anthony Young for 6 yds to the ArkPB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.9%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to Jeremy Brown for 5 yds to the ArkPB 19Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+19
99.9%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to Jeremy Brown for 19 yds to the ArkPB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.9%
Brandon Duncan pass complete to Pat Rowland Ii for 1 yd to the ArkPB 39Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-6
99.9%
Brandon Duncan sacked by Deon'Tae Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkPB 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Brandon Duncan pass incomplete to Tyrin Ralph, broken up by Mikee HayesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Jamie Gillan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Shawn Featherstone at the Akron 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
UAPBDrive 18INT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:49
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+14
99.9%
Duncan, Brandon pass incomplete to Collins, Jaelen (FEATHERSTONE, S), PENALTY AKRON pass interference 14 yards to the AKRON35, 1ST DOWN UAPB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Brandon Duncan pass intercepted John Lako return for no gain to the Akron 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Nick Gasser punt for 37 yds , Kevin Crayton returns for 2 yds to the ArkPB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
AKRDrive 21TD8 plays · 63 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
99.9%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Dustin Burkhart for 25 yds to the ArkPB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:11
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+15
100.0%
Patterson,LeEar pass incomplete to Smith,Orion, PENALTY AKRON roughing passer 15 yards to the UAPB41, 1ST DOWN UAPB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-15
100.0%
Patterson,LeEar pass complete to Rowland II, Pat for 22 yards to the AKRON34 (GILCHRIST, T.), PENALTY UAPB ineligible downfield on pass 15 yards to the UAPB29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 22
OWN 29
+15
100.0%
LaEarl Patterson pass complete to Cameron Colbert for 15 yds to the ArkPB 44Similar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-11
100.0%
LaEarl Patterson sacked by DeMarcus Lloyd and Devon Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkPB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23Uncategorized1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:00
Warren Ball run for 8 yds for a TD (Tom O'Leary KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 13:35
Brandon Duncan pass intercepted for a TD Ulysees Gilbert III return for 30 yds for a TD (Tom O'Leary KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 10:47
Warren Ball run for 12 yds for a TD (Tom O'Leary KICK)
-0.1