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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadHAMP aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreHAMP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:39 · Julian Ross run for 6 yds to the Hampt 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:23: Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 16 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:51: Nathan Rourke run for 8 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos PAT MISSED) — OHIO win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:26: Julian Ross run for 1 yd for a TD HAMPTON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:26: Dorian Brown run for 10 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:53: Julian Ross run for 2 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7HAMP made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 11:22OHIO 4th & 7 at HAMP 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q1 10:38HAMP 4th & 6 at HAMP 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q1 9:15HAMP 4th & 15 at HAMP 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 7:49OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q1 4:48HAMP 4th & 4 at HAMP 10, down 7Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00HAMP 4th & 15 at OHIO 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.117% to convertField goal3.7%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q2 6:43HAMP 4th & 6 at HAMP 11, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 5:39OHIO 4th & 3 at HAMP 27, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.4%52% to convertField goal96.2%−0.262% to makePunt95.2%−1.2average punt
- Q2 2:19HAMP 4th & 11 at HAMP 34, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 14:54HAMP 4th & 12 at HAMP 15, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 11:56OHIO 4th & 1 at HAMP 3, up 29Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%63% to convertField goal99.4%−0.293% to makePunt98.9%−0.7average punt
- Q3 6:42HAMP 4th & 3 at HAMP 18, down 43Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:06OHIO 4th & 7 at HAMP 21, up 43Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%74% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:06HAMP 4th & 23 at HAMP 23, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:40HAMP 4th & 9 at HAMP 19, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:17OHIO 4th & 3 at HAMP 44, up 52Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:07HAMP 4th & 11 at OHIO 37, down 59Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.0%40% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:17OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 26, up 59Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 9:23OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:51OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:26OHIO Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:26OHIO Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:53OHIO Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:46OHIO Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:43OHIO Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:26OHIO Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1PUNT12 plays · 32 yds · 3:3898% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
98.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Brendan Cope for 8 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-11
98.0%
Ouellette, A.J. rush for 4 yards to the HAM48 (CARR Dereon), PENALTY OHIO illegal block 11 yards to the OHIO37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 22
OWN 36
+15
97.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Cameron Odom for 15 yds to the Hampt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD2 plays · 31 yds · 0:1197% → 98%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
97.4%
Maxwell, Quinto pass incomplete to Odom, Cameron, PENALTY HAM pass interference 15 yards to the HAM16, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
97.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 16 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:003% → 3%
OHIODrive 5PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
HAMPDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
OHIODrive 7INT3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
96.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass intercepted, touchback. Scott Robert return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 2:124% → 4%
Q1 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+27
96.5%
Williams Delmon pass complete to Wolfolk Wesley for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+7
96.3%
Williams Delmon pass complete to Wolfolk Wesley for 7 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
95.9%
Williams Delmon pass incomplete to Wolfolk Wesley, broken up by Javon HaganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9TD16 plays · 82 yds · 7:3896% → 97%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
96.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 6 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
95.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 10 yds to the Ohio 49 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ohio 39Similar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
96.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for a loss of 2 yards to the Hampt 23Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+10
96.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Dorian Brown for 10 yds to the Hampt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
OHIODrive 11TD7 plays · 34 yds · 3:1396% → 99%
HAMPDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 2:19
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
98.0%
Williams Delmon pass complete to Bell Ronald for 4 yds to the Hampt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
98.1%
Williams Delmon sacked by Evan Croutch for a loss of 1 yard to the Hampt 34Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Williams Delmon pass incomplete to Wolfolk Wesley, broken up by Bradd EllisSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Brown Adam punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-9
98.4%
Williams Delmon sacked by Kevin Robbins and Tony Porter for a loss of 9 yards to the Hampt 10Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 12
OWN 15
+20
98.4%
Brown Adam punt for 30 yds , Papi White returns for 20 yds to the Hampt 35 HAMPTON Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Hampt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD2 plays · 20 yds · 0:1199% → 100%
HAMPDrive 16SF6 plays · -21 yds · 0:170% → 0%
OHIODrive 17TD8 plays · 60 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+48
99.7%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Cameron Odom for 48 yds to the Hampt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+6
99.7%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Cameron Odom for 6 yds to the Hampt 3Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
Quinton Maxwell run for no gain to the Hampt 4 Quinton Maxwell fumbled, recovered by Ohio Quinton MaxwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 18FUMBLE4 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:48
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-3
99.8%
Williams Delmon sacked by Evan Croutch for a loss of 3 yards to the Hampt 13 Williams Delmon fumbled, recovered by Ohio Chukwudi Chukwu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19TD1 play · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 13 yds for a TD HAMPTON Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:42
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+10
99.9%
Greene Brendan pass complete to Johnson Yahkee for 10 yds to the Hampt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21FG8 plays · 29 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q3 5:12
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Rourke, Nathan sacked for loss of 7 yards to the OHIO45 (OBASUYI Owen), PENALTY HAM offside 5 yards to the HAM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+19
99.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 19 yds to the Hampt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 22PUNT10 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OHIODrive 23TD7 plays · 42 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
99.9%
Wears, Dylan rush for 2 yards to the HAM40 (DAVIDSON Jayson;EDMONDS Zion), PENALTY OHIO holding 8 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+23
99.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Bryan Long Jr. for 23 yds to the Hampt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 21 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:40
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Brown Adam punt for 46 yds , DL Knock returns for no gain to the Ohio 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:17
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 34 yds , Bell Ronald returns for no gain to the Hampt 9 Bell Ronald fumbled, recovered by Ohio Jacob HaleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26TD1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 27PUNT10 plays · 39 yds · 3:130% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 28END OF GAME4 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:26
Julian Ross run for 1 yd for a TD HAMPTON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q3 12:26
Dorian Brown run for 10 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 6:51
Nathan Rourke run for 8 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos PAT MISSED)
+0.6