2017 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2017 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:21 · Arthur Hart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:03: Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 21 yds for a TD EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Nigel Macauley KICK) — CLT win probability +1.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 9:26: Timeout CHARLOTTE, clock 09:26 — EMU win probability +1.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:54: Robert Washington run for no gain to the EMich 49 — CLT win probability +1.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 11:32: Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 27 — EMU win probability +2.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:58: Ian Eriksen run for 5 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +7.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CLT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 2:30CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it17.6%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q2 9:26CLT 4th & 25 at EMU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snapGo for it17.3%−1.67% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.9%average punt
- Q2 2:02EMU 4th & 8 at CLT 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snapGo for it80.6%−0.432% to convertField goalTheir call81.0%77% to makePunt77.4%−3.5average punt
- Q2 0:21CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.3%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q3 11:32EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 40, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snapGo for it83.9%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.3%average punt
- Q3 8:05EMU 4th & 2 at CLT 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.3%57% to convertField goal84.1%−1.149% to makePunt83.5%−1.7average punt
- Q3 6:27CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 38, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it14.3%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q3 3:53CLT 4th & 14 at CLT 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it4.6%−1.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q4 14:56EMU 4th & 5 at CLT 43, up 17Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.7%42% to convertField goal95.1%−0.628% to makePuntTheir call95.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 14:49CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 26, down 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it5.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%−1.1average punt
- Q4 13:05EMU 4th & 19 at EMU 11, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.0%−1.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%average punt
- Q4 9:51CLT 4th & 12 at EMU 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.523% to convertField goalTheir call3.4%51% to makePunt2.9%−0.5average punt
- Q4 9:51EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 34, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q4 7:23CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q4 5:57CLT 4th & 28 at EMU 41, down 17Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.57% to convertField goal2.5%32% to makePuntTheir call2.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:58EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 13, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
- Q4 1:27CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 45, down 17Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:44EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:03CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.6%97% to makeGo for two19.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:35EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two81.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:58EMU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1FUMBLE10 plays · 56 yds · 2:2783% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
83.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the EMich 15Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
83.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 8 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
83.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 21 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
83.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 37Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+12
82.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 12 yds Antoine Porter fumbled, forced by Juwan Foggie, recovered by Charl Juwan FoggieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2INT TD6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4118% → 18%
CLTDrive 3TD5 plays · 73 yds · 1:3618% → 20%
Q1 8:03
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+21
80.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 21 yds for a TD EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Nigel Macauley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4TD13 plays · 80 yds · 5:2281% → 82%
Q1 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+20
80.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 20 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+15
81.3%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to PORTER, Antoine, PENALTY CHA personal foul (KING, K.) 15 yards to the CHA20, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
81.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 5 yds to the Charl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
81.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 9 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 28
-8
81.2%
Hasaan Klugh run for 7 yds to the Charl 35 CHARLOTTE Penalty, IB (-15 Yards) to the Charl 20Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+9
82.2%
Arthur Hart punt for 40 yds , Blake Banham returns for 9 yds to the EMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6INT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:2182% → 83%
CLTDrive 7PUNT15 plays · 45 yds · 3:4219% → 18%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
81.2%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Charl 23Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+15
80.8%
KLUGH, Hasaan pass incomplete to FORD II, T.L. (PHELPS, Jalen), PENALTY EMU pass interference (PHELPS, Jalen) 15 yards to the CHA38, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-5
80.2%
KLUGH, Hasaan rush for 8 yards to the EMU47 (HARRIS, J.), PENALTY CHA illegal formation 5 yards to the CHA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+26
80.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 26 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-8
79.3%
Hasaan Klugh run for 7 yds to the EMich 25 CHARLOTTE Penalty, UR (-15 Yards) to the EMich 40Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 16
OPP 40
-9
81.6%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Jeremiah Harris and Maxx Crosby for a loss of 9 yards to the EMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8FG16 plays · 74 yds · 6:3081% → 84%
Q2 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+7
81.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 7 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+8
81.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 8 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+16
81.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 16 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
82.5%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to John Niupalau, broken up by Markevis DavisSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+18
81.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 18 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
82.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 8 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
82.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Anthony CovingtonSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+3
82.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 3 yds to the Charl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 1:3317% → 16%
Q2 1:54
2ND & 14
OWN 39
-10
84.1%
KLUGH, Hasaan pass complete to KOFA, Workpeh for 32 yards to the EMU29, out-of-bounds (MOODY, Justin), PENALTY CHA holding (GERMAN, Eugene) 10 yards to the CHA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
84.0%
Arthur Hart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11INT10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 14 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
82.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 12 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
81.6%
LEMAY, Benny rush for 8 yards to the EMU28 (SPEARMAN, Ike), PENALTY CHA holding 8 yards to the EMU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+5
82.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 5 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
82.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass intercepted Jason Beck return for no gain to the EMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
84.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 10 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+37
84.0%
Ivan Oraha punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the EASTMICH 18 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Charl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
EMUDrive 14DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
86.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 9 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-10
86.7%
VANN, Shaq rush for 2 yards to the CHA30 (FOGGIE, Juwan), PENALTY EMU holding (TALLMAN, D.) 10 yards to the CHA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+9
86.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for 9 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
85.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to John Niupalau, broken up by Juwan FoggieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 6:27
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
85.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16TD5 plays · 76 yds · 1:4386% → 95%
CLTDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
EMUDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 47 yds · 2:1795% → 95%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
94.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 11 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
95.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Ian Eriksen) to the EMich 16Similar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+23
94.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 23 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
95.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 13 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
95.3%
Ivan Oraha punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the Charl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+2
95.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Nate Mullen for 2 yds to the Charl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 13:05
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-11
96.3%
Brogan Roback sacked by Jeff Gemmell for a loss of 11 yards to the EMich 11Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
95.9%
Ivan Oraha punt for 31 yds , Nate Mullen returns for no gain to the EMich 43 Nate Mullen fumbled, recovered by Charl Anthony CovingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21MISSED FG7 plays · 11 yds · 1:194% → 4%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to T.L. Ford II, broken up by Ross WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 9:51
4TH & 3
OWN 39
-5
96.6%
ORAHA, Ivan punt 37 yards to the CHA24, MULLEN, Nate return to the CHA24, fumble by MULLEN, Nate recovered by CHA TEAM at CHA21, PENALTY EMU illegal formation 5 yards to the EMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
96.5%
Ivan Oraha punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the Charl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
EMUDrive 24PUNT2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
CLTDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+8
97.1%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 8 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-3
97.1%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 40Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
97.2%
KLUGH, Hasaan pass complete to TYLER, R.J. for 2 yards to the CHA42 (CALDERON, Ikie), PENALTY CHA illegal use of hands (TYLER, R.J.) 0 yards to the CHA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 9
OWN 40
-19
97.3%
KLUGH, Hasaan pass complete to FORD II, T.L. for 19 yards to the EMU41 (MOODY, Justin), PENALTY CHA holding 19 yards to the EMU41, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5798% → 99%
Q4 1:58
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
98.6%
Ivan Oraha punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the Charl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27DOWNS5 plays · 0 yds · 0:242% → 1%
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
98.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Nate Mullen for 7 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-7
98.2%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Kyle Rachwal for a loss of 7 yards to the Charl 45Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Uriah LeMay, broken up by Anthony BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:58
Ian Eriksen run for 5 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
+7.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:32
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 27
+2.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:54
Robert Washington run for no gain to the EMich 49
-1.8