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URI

Rhode Island 27 at Central Michigan 30

CMU
2017 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2017 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreURI score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:20 · Satchel Denton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the CMich 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 41Pregame prior+44.0Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.7Time remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 2:23: Aaron Parker 14 Yd pass from Tyler Harris (C.J. Carrick Kick) — URI win probability +35.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
  2. FG · OT 0:00: C.J. Carrick 42 Yd Field Goal — URI win probability +15.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
  3. FG · OT 0:00: Michael Armstrong 22 Yd Field Goal — CMU win probability +21.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: C.J. Carrick 36 Yd Field Goal — URI win probability +15.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Devon Spalding 4 Yd Run — CMU win probability +41.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13URI made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:57URI 4th & 3 at URI 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:42CMU 4th & 9 at URI 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:48URI 4th & 17 at URI 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:20URI 4th & 16 at URI 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:16CMU 4th & 4 at URI 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:41URI 4th & 5 at CMU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:31CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:24CMU 4th & 7 at URI 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:24URI 4th & 6 at URI 42, down 13
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:42CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:26CMU 4th & 10 at URI 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:06CMU 4th & 6 at URI 35, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:49URI 4th & 3 at URI 38, down 13
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:13CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00URI 4th & 2 at URI 13, down 6
    Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:45CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:43CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:39CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−2.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:58CMU 4th & 19 at CMU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−17.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:51URI 4th & 5 at CMU 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−7.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2URI made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 8:33CMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:13URI Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:59CMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:43URI Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:23URI Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.8%
Shane Morris run for 9 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
97.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Brandon Childress for 5 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
97.8%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
97.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 4 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon GinnettiSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Jack Sheldon punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
97.5%
Harold Cooper run for 6 yds to the RIsld 23Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
97.5%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Aaron Parker for 1 yd to the RIsld 24Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete, broken up by Josh CoxSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Satchel Denton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
97.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Brandon Childress for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
97.4%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
97.4%
MORRIS, Shane pass complete to WILLIS, Corey for 4 yards to the URI48 (D. Stewart), PENALTY URI substitution infraction 5 yards to the URI47, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
97.4%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the RIsld 46Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
97.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
97.4%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
97.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Aaron Parker at the RIsld 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:593% → 3%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+24
97.0%
Harold Cooper run for 24 yds to the RIsld 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Aaron Parker for no gain to the RIsld 37Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
97.0%
H. Cooper rush for 4 yards to the URI41, out-of-bounds (GOLDEN, Ray), PENALTY URI holding 10 yards to the URI27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+1
97.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Marven Beauvais for 1 yd to the RIsld 28Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+2
96.8%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Harold Cooper for 2 yds to the RIsld 30Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
96.8%
Satchel Denton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the CMich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5INT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
96.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for no gain to the CMich 33 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (-9 Yards) to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 19
OWN 24
0
96.6%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+19
96.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 19 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
96.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Brandon Childress for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 3
50
+3
96.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the RIsld 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
96.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the RIsld 44Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
96.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 6 yds to the RIsld 38Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
96.7%
RHODE ISLAND Penalty, Defensive offside (Brandon Ginnetti) to the RIsld 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.8%
Shane Morris pass intercepted Myles Ross return for no gain to the RIsld 33 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
96.1%
Harold Cooper run for 4 yds to the RIsld 10Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+4
96.0%
Harold Cooper run for 4 yds to the RIsld 14Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+7
96.1%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Harold Buckner III for 7 yds to the RIsld 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
96.0%
Harold Cooper run for 2 yds to the RIsld 23Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
96.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Harold Buckner III for 2 yds to the RIsld 25Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-10
96.0%
Tyler Harris sacked by Alex Briones for a loss of 10 yards to the RIsld 15Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 16
OWN 15
0
96.1%
Satchel Denton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the CMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:2996% → 95%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
95.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 34 yds to the RIsld 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
95.7%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the RIsld 15Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
95.7%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the RIsld 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+6
95.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Devon Spalding for 6 yds to the RIsld 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
95.5%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the RIsld 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.5%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the RIsld 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Devon Spalding, broken up by D.J. StewartSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
95.0%
Michael Armstrong 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 8INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.5%
JaJuan Lawson run for no gain to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
94.5%
Tyler Harris pass intercepted Amari Coleman return for no gain to the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:4995% → 96%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
94.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 15 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
94.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
95.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 5 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
95.0%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 13
OWN 46
0
94.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+14
94.6%
Shane Morris run for 14 yds to the RIsld 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
95.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 17 yds to the RIsld 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
95.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Logan Hessbrook for 13 yds to the RIsld 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
95.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 4 yds to the RIsld 6Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
95.1%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the RIsld 4Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Brandon Childress for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:435% → 5%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+34
95.3%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Aaron Parker for 34 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
94.9%
T. Harris pass incomplete to Aa. Parker, PENALTY CMU pass interference (KELLY, Darwyn) 15 yards to the CMU18, 1ST DOWN URI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
94.8%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Khayri Denny for 6 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-1
94.8%
Harold Cooper run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
95.0%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Aaron ParkerSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
95.2%
C.J. Carrick 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 4:1795% → 96%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Brandon ChildressSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
95.1%
MORRIS, Shane pass incomplete to HESSBROOK, L., PENALTY URI pass interference (Dickerson) 15 yards to the CMU35, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Logan HessbrookSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
95.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Devon Spalding for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+10
95.2%
Shane Morris run for 10 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+22
95.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Logan Hessbrook for 22 yds to the RIsld 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
95.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Logan Hessbrook for 6 yds to the RIsld 29Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+6
95.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the RIsld 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
95.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 6 yds to the RIsld 17Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 4
OPP 17
-3
95.4%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the RIsld 20Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
95.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+39
96.4%
Michael Armstrong 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
95.7%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Khayri Denny for 14 yds to the RIsld 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.5%
Tyler Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
95.6%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Harold Cooper for 4 yds to the RIsld 42Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
95.5%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Aaron ParkerSimilar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
95.6%
Satchel Denton punt for 56 yds, downed at the CMich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:2396% → 96%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+31
96.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 31 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
96.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
96.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
96.1%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
95.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds, downed at the RIsld 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the RIsld 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 15INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
95.2%
Harold Cooper run for 5 yds to the RIsld 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-5
95.1%
Tyler Harris pass intercepted Alex Briones return for a loss of 5 yards to the RIsld 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5196% → 96%
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.9%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Rashod DickersonSimilar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
95.9%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the RIsld 28Similar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
95.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
95.5%
Michael Armstrong 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 17INT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
95.0%
Harold Cooper run for a loss of 2 yards to the RIsld 26Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
95.1%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Aaron ParkerSimilar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+14
95.2%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Marven Beauvais for 14 yds to the RIsld 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
94.8%
Anderson rush for 5 yards to the URI45 (OSTMAN, Joe), PENALTY URI holding 10 yards to the URI30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+6
95.0%
T.J. Anderson run for 6 yds to the RIsld 36Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+6
95.1%
T.J. Anderson run for 6 yds to the RIsld 42Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+9
94.9%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Aaron Parker for 9 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
94.5%
Tyler Harris pass intercepted Josh Cox return for no gain to the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
95.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 7 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+23
95.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 23 yds to the RIsld 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
95.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the RIsld 35Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
95.9%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
95.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Logan Hessbrook, broken up by Momodou MbyeSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+45
95.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 35 yds for a touchback RHODE ISLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
95.2%
Harold Cooper run for 5 yds to the RIsld 15Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-5
95.2%
T. Harris pass incomplete to Beauvais (COLEMAN, Amari), PENALTY URI ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the URI10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+21
95.2%
Harold Cooper run for 21 yds to the RIsld 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
94.8%
Harold Cooper run for a loss of 2 yards to the RIsld 29Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+9
95.1%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Marven Beauvais for 9 yds to the RIsld 38Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
94.7%
Tyler Harris run for no gain to the RIsld 38Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
95.0%
Satchel Denton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 5:40
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+10
95.5%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Mark Chapman for 10 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
95.6%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Corey Willis for 13 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
95.6%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-7
95.5%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the CMich 36 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (J.P. Quinn) to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+11
95.5%
Tony Poljan run for 11 yds to the CMich 37 Tony Poljan fumbled, forced by Rashod Dickerson, recovered by CMich Tony PoljanSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
95.9%
Devon Spalding run for 14 yds to the RIsld 27 Devon Spalding fumbled, forced by Isaiah Hill, recovered by RIsld Momodou MbyeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 21TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:086% → 16%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
94.4%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Isaiah CoulterSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
94.7%
Harold Cooper run for 2 yds to the RIsld 29Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Aaron ParkerSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+15
94.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, roughing the kicker (Trevor Apsey) to the RIsld 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
84.2%
Isaiah Coulter 56 Yd pass from Tyler Harris (C.J. Carrick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.9%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Isaiah HillSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
88.7%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Eric CooperSimilar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+4
88.1%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Logan Hessbrook for 4 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
87.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 65 yds, downed at the RIsld 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0114% → 14%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
85.6%
T.J. Anderson run for 1 yd to the RIsld 6Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
85.8%
Harold Cooper run for 2 yds to the RIsld 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+5
86.1%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (Joe Ostman) to the RIsld 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
85.6%
Harold Cooper run for no gain to the RIsld 13Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
86.3%
Satchel Denton punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the RIsld 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:0790% → 97%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
90.0%
RHODE ISLAND Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the RIsld 36Similar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+36
96.9%
Jonathan Ward 36 Yd Run (Shane Morris Pass to Mark Chapman for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.3%
Tyler Harris pass intercepted Josh Cox return for no gain to the RIsld 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
96.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the RIsld 48Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
96.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Brandon Childress, broken up by Isaiah HillSimilar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 9
OPP 48
-5
96.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Trevor Thomas) to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
96.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 27TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
88.9%
Marven Beauvais 80 Yd pass from Tyler Harris (C.J. Carrick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
91.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Logan Hessbrook for 7 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
92.3%
Devon Spalding run for 5 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
92.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-15
92.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 18
OWN 34
+11
90.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Devon Spalding for 11 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
91.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Aaron Parker at the RIsld 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 29INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0012% → 14%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
88.2%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Joey Kenny for 18 yds to the RIsld 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.8%
Harold Cooper run for 6 yds to the RIsld 31 Harold Cooper fumbled, forced by Alex Briones, recovered by RIsld Harold CooperSimilar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
87.0%
Harold Cooper run for 4 yds to the RIsld 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.2%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Harold Buckner IIISimilar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
87.4%
T. Harris pass incomplete to Beauvais, PENALTY CMU pass interference (CHAPMAN, Mark) 13 yards to the URI48, 1ST DOWN URI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.8%
Tyler Harris pass intercepted Amari Coleman return for no gain to the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
90.7%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
90.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Logan Hessbrook, broken up by Ahkema EvansSimilar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 10
-1
90.0%
Shane Morris sacked by Jose Duncan for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 9Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
89.6%
Jack Sheldon punt for 22 yds, downed at the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 31INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
84.3%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Khayri DennySimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
84.3%
Harold Cooper run for 11 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
83.8%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Marven Beauvais for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
83.8%
Tyler Harris pass intercepted Darwyn Kelly return for no gain to the CMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 32FUMBLE
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:4692% → 94%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
92.0%
Devon Spalding run for 9 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+2
92.0%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
92.0%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
91.9%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+5
94.3%
Shane Morris run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 10 Shane Morris fumbled, forced by Brandon Ginnetti, recovered by RIsld Tez Wilson , return for 5 yds to the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 33TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:4014% → 49%
Q4 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
85.9%
Harold Cooper run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 14Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
87.2%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
51.5%
Aaron Parker 14 Yd pass from Tyler Harris (C.J. Carrick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 34PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:2562% → 57%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
62.0%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Logan HessbrookSimilar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
61.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-9
59.0%
Shane Morris sacked by Mike Ezirike for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 19
OWN 10
0
56.8%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 35PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
47.8%
Harold Cooper run for 2 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
46.9%
Harold Cooper run for 3 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
47.6%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Harold Buckner IIISimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
51.5%
Satchel Denton punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the CMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 36END OF GAME
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:1159% → 58%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
58.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+16
58.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 16 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
59.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
57.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 37FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Harold Cooper run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Harold Cooper for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
43.7%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Marven Beauvais, broken up by Ray GoldenSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
28.5%
C.J. Carrick 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 38FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0041% → 62%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
41.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the RIsld 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+13
41.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 13 yds to the RIsld 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
41.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the RIsld 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
41.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for a loss of 2 yards to the RIsld 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
37.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 2 yds to the RIsld 4Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
58.8%
Michael Armstrong 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 25
0
66.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 0
OPP 25
-2
62.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the RIsld 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by RIsld Justin HoganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 39FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 52%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
40.5%
RHODE ISLAND Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the CMich 30Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+6
42.0%
Harold Cooper run for 6 yds to the CMich 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
40.5%
T.J. Anderson run for 1 yd to the CMich 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+7
43.7%
T.J. Anderson run for 7 yds to the CMich 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+33
47.8%
C.J. Carrick 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 40POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES) TD
9 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+8
42.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Aaron Parker for 8 yds to the CMich 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
40.5%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Aaron Parker for 3 yds to the CMich 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
43.0%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Harold Buckner IIISimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
27.8%
C.J. Carrick 36 Yd Field GoalSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 25
+18
45.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Oakley Lavallii for 18 yds to the RIsld 7Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-9
41.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the RIsld 6 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Derek Edwards) to the RIsld 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 0
OPP 16
+9
45.2%
Shane Morris run for 9 yds to the RIsld 7Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
37.8%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the RIsld 4Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.4%
Devon Spalding 4 Yd RunSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 41MISSED FG
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+33
80.5%
C.J. Carrick 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 42FG
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
82.5%
C.J. Carrick 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 43TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.1%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Devon Spalding 4 Yd Run
+41.6
TD · Q4 2:23
Aaron Parker 14 Yd pass from Tyler Harris (C.J. Carrick Kick)
-35.7
FG · OT 0:00
Michael Armstrong 22 Yd Field Goal
+21
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com