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USA

South Alabama 17 at New Mexico State 22

NMSU
2017 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2017 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:51 · Corliss Waitman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+20.5Home team on offense−2.9Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:50: Dallas Davis run for 11 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +4.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:08: Anthony Muse 9 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Dylan Brown Kick) — USA win probability +4.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q4 14:56: Dylan Brown 39 Yd Field Goal — USA win probability +10.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:49: Jordan McCray 17 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick) — USA win probability +4.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:32: Davidson, P. kickoff 45 yards to the USA20, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NMSU IP 5 yards to the NMSU30, NO PLAY. — USA win probability +19.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 3 at NMSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:37NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:33USA 4th & 17 at NMSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:42NMSU 4th & 8 at USA 29, tied
    Close callWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    76.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:50NMSU 4th & 10 at USA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:57NMSU 4th & 5 at USA 15, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:51USA 4th & 1 at USA 30, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:48NMSU 4th & 20 at NMSU 42, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−5.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:53USA 4th & 11 at USA 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−3.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:03NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 24, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−3.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:53USA 4th & 21 at USA 26, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−6.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:56NMSU 4th & 20 at USA 22, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−6.7
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−15.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:37NMSU 4th & 4 at USA 17, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−17.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:24USA 4th & 10 at NMSU 10, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−3.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−17.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:50USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
79.8%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
79.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
79.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
79.8%
Corliss Waitman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
79.5%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-10
79.4%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 19
OWN 1
+9
79.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 9 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
79.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 61 yds, downed at the SAlab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
78.9%
Carlos Robinson II run for 1 yd to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
78.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+11
79.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 11 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
78.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 8 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+11
78.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 11 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
78.6%
Cole Garvin run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-6
78.7%
Cole Garvin sacked by Leon McQuaker for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 17
OPP 47
0
78.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
79.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4DOWNS
14 plays · 58 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
77.7%
Huntley, Jason rush for 8 yards to the NMSU21 (McWilliams, Rcl), PENALTY NMSU holding (Scott, Jaleel) 3 yards to the NMSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 13
OWN 10
+3
77.7%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
77.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+19
77.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 19 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
77.9%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
78.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+13
77.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 13 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
78.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 5 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-5
78.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+20
78.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 20 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
78.5%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
78.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
78.3%
Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Scott, Jaleel for 17 yards to the USA12, PENALTY NMSU IT (Scott, Jaleel) 0 yards to the USA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 8
OPP 29
0
77.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Peyton TheislerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:2024% → 30%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
76.1%
Jalen Wayne run for 8 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+7
75.7%
Dallas Davis run for 7 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+30
75.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Malik Stanley for 30 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
75.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Andrew Reinkemeyer for 4 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
75.0%
Dallas Davis run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+9
75.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jamarius Way for 9 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
73.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
68.7%
Dallas Davis run for 11 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
70.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:5271% → 73%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
71.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 9 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
71.8%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
71.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 3 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+33
71.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 33 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
72.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
72.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
71.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
72.6%
Dylan Brown 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
71.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tra Minter for 20 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
71.3%
Dallas Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 33 Dallas Davis fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Shamad LomaxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0374% → 71%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
73.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
73.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+5
73.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+1
72.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 1 yd to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
70.6%
Dylan Brown 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
69.3%
Cole Garvin run for 4 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
69.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jahmmir Taylor for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
70.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:1069% → 67%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-12
68.9%
Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Hogan, Gregory for loss of 2 yards to the NMSU27 (Lawrence, Nigel), PENALTY NMSU holding 12 yards to the NMSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 22
OWN 17
+15
68.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 15 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
68.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+24
69.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 24 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
70.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 11 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
71.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+8
71.5%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+12
71.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
71.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 2 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
71.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
67.0%
Anthony Muse 9 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Dylan Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11INT
17 plays · 42 yds · 3:2337% → 41%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
63.2%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Andrew Reinkemeyer, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+17
63.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to David Gardner for 17 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.7%
David Gardner run for no gain to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+20
62.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to David Gardner for 20 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
60.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 11 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
60.4%
Cole Garvin run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
60.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to David Gardner, broken up by Roy LopezSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+3
61.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 18 yds to the NMxSt 2 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-9
60.4%
Jordan McCray run for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 19
OPP 26
-11
61.4%
Cole Garvin sacked by Terrill Hanks for a loss of 11 yards to the NMxSt 40 Cole Garvin fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 33
OPP 40
+15
63.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Terrill Hanks) to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
60.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Andrew Reinkemeyer for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-3
57.3%
Cole Garvin sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
59.3%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted Terrill Hanks return for no gain to the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
62.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13INT
12 plays · 75 yds · 0:0061% → 64%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
60.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 10 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
61.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
62.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 8 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-1
63.8%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+26
63.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 26 yds to the NEWMEXST 27 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
65.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 4 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-3
65.6%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Darrell Songy for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+13
63.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 13 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
65.6%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
65.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Malcolm BuggsSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
64.0%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Tobias Moss return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.2%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted DeMarcus Owens return for no gain to the SAlab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0059% → 53%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
59.2%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Bull Barge for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 20
OWN 42
0
55.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 20
OWN 42
0
54.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 20
OWN 42
0
53.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 32 yds, downed at the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
52.5%
Dallas Davis sacked by Terrill Hanks for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
53.0%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jahmmir Taylor, broken up by Ron LaForceSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
54.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to David Gardner, broken up by Ron LaForceSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
55.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 52 yds, downed at the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4454% → 48%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
53.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
53.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
51.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 9
OWN 24
-4
47.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 51 yds , Sa'Mory Collier returns for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 20 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (T'Qwan Robinson) to the SAlab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
49.7%
Cole Garvin run for 14 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
49.3%
Carlos Robinson II run for 3 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
48.7%
Carlos Robinson II run for no gain to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+10
50.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 10 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
47.6%
Cole Garvin sacked by Leon McQuaker for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
50.0%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 16
OWN 31
-5
51.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Carlos Robinson II for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 21
OWN 26
0
52.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0146% → 41%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
46.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 11 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
46.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 16 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+31
50.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 31 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
53.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Darian MillsSimilar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
53.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 11 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
53.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
53.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-12
51.2%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Wade Forde for a loss of 12 yards to the SAlab 22Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 20
OPP 22
+39
40.9%
Dylan Brown 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0760% → 71%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.1%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
39.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 11 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
36.8%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
37.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+14
39.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 14 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
36.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 27 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
33.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sterrling FisherSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
29.2%
Jordan McCray 17 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 58 yds · 3:1240% → 39%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+22
42.6%
Larry Rose III run for 22 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
45.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Malik Demby for 12 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
47.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-5
47.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
47.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Darian MillsSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+10
44.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Malik Demby for 10 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
47.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
45.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for no gain to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+6
42.1%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 4
OPP 17
0
39.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22FG
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:0870% → 78%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
30.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 10 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
29.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 3 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+19
28.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 19 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+42
25.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 42 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
24.0%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q4 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
24.0%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
25.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik Stanley, broken up by Cassius CorleySimilar
Q4 5:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
22.1%
Gavin Patterson 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
20 plays · 83 yds · 4:4725% → 10%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
25.0%
PENALTY NMSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY USA unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
26.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+20
25.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 20 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
28.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
28.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+14
26.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 14 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
32.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaden Wright for 6 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+11
32.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 11 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
35.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
31.0%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
29.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
31.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
31.4%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+1
24.9%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
27.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Darian MillsSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
26.1%
Conner Cramer 7 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
10.2%
Davidson, P. kickoff 45 yards to the USA20, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NMSU IP 5 yards to the NMSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24Uncategorized
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:1294% → 96%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
5.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to David Gardner for 11 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
5.2%
Cole Garvin run for 5 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
3.5%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
3.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Austin PerkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+96.4
TD · Q4 0:32
Davidson, P. kickoff 45 yards to the USA20, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NMSU IP 5 yards to the NMSU30, NO PLAY.
-19.5
FG · Q4 14:56
Dylan Brown 39 Yd Field Goal
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com