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IDHO

Idaho 10 at New Mexico State 17

NMSU
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreIDHO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+9.1NMSU 86.3%Dylan Brown 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 17 · Q4 12:29
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:29 · Dylan Brown 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Pregame prior+5.9Home team on offense+14.9Garbage-time factor+8.9Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:46: Colton Richardson pass complete to David Ungerer for 25 yds for a TD, (Cade Coffey KICK) — IDHO win probability +8.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 12:29: Dylan Brown 24 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:29: Colton Richardson pass incomplete to David Ungerer — IDHO win probability +4.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:02: Nick Jeanty pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 7 yds to the Idaho 23 — NMSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:10: Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34 — NMSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10IDHO made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00IDHO 4th & 1 at NMSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:24NMSU 4th & 1 at IDHO 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.2%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:24IDHO 4th & 12 at IDHO 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:14NMSU 4th & 6 at IDHO 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00IDHO 4th & 10 at NMSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:06NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:16IDHO 4th & 12 at NMSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:20NMSU 4th & 19 at IDHO 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:23NMSU 4th & 6 at IDHO 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:23IDHO 4th & 16 at NMSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−1.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:27NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:00IDHO 4th & 4 at NMSU 17, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−8.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:00NMSU 4th & 23 at NMSU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−4.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:09IDHO 4th & 16 at IDHO 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:29NMSU 4th & 3 at IDHO 6, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%−1.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−15.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:29IDHO 4th & 23 at IDHO 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−4.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:55NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:58IDHO 4th & 13 at IDHO 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:24IDHO 4th & 1 at NMSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−4.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−6.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:52IDHO 4th & 3 at NMSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−1.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−7.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:16NMSU 4th & 5 at IDHO 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IDHO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:19NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:24NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:46IDHO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IDHODrive 1INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
77.1%
Mason Petrino run for 10 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
77.1%
Mason Petrino pass complete to David Ungerer for 7 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
77.1%
Mason Petrino run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
77.1%
Isaiah Saunders run for no gain to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
77.1%
Isaiah Saunders run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
77.1%
Mason Petrino pass intercepted Leon McQuaker return for 12 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:3677% → 78%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
76.6%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
76.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to OJ Clark for 7 yds to the Idaho 38Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-1
76.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 39Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+7
76.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Conner Cramer for 7 yds to the Idaho 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
76.8%
Nick Jeanty run for 7 yds to the Idaho 25Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+25
77.7%
Larry Rose III run for 25 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2823% → 23%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
77.1%
Mason Petrino sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 23Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
77.3%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to Alfonso OnunworSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
77.4%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 6 yds Alfonso Onunwor fumbled, forced by Shamad Lomax, recovered by NMxSt Shamad LomaxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1278% → 80%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
78.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 11 yds to the Idaho 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
78.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
78.0%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the Idaho 10Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+7
77.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to OJ Clark for 7 yds to the Idaho 3Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
79.9%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Derek Watson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.3%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
79.2%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Aaron Duckworth for 4 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
79.2%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 5 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
79.2%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Kaden Elliss for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 35Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
79.3%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to David UngererSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-1
79.3%
Colton Richardson sacked by Jassavia Reese for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 34Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
79.4%
Cade Coffey punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6MISSED FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 4:5881% → 83%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
81.1%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-1
81.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
80.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Conner Cramer for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
81.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
81.1%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Armond HawkinsSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+14
81.0%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
81.3%
Nick Jeanty run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
81.4%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
81.3%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+11
81.1%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Conner Cramer for 11 yds to the Idaho 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
81.6%
Nick Jeanty run for 17 yds to the Idaho 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
81.6%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jason Huntley for no gain to the Idaho 31Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
81.5%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 16 yds to the Idaho 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
81.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the Idaho 14Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
81.6%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+3
81.4%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 3 yds to the Idaho 11Similar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+9
82.8%
Dylan Brown 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Armond Hawkins N/A return for 9 yds to the Idaho 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 44 yds · 0:1418% → 18%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
81.6%
Aaron Duckworth run for 8 yds to the Idaho 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
81.5%
Aaron Duckworth run for 4 yds to the Idaho 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
81.6%
Aaron Duckworth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
81.7%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to Kaden EllissSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
81.9%
IDAHO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+12
81.9%
Colton Richardson pass complete to David Ungerer for 12 yds to the Idaho 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
81.4%
Aaron Duckworth run for 6 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
81.1%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
81.1%
Colton Richardson pass complete to J.J. Wills for 4 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.0%
Isaiah Saunders run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
81.3%
Colton Richardson sacked by Shamad Lomax for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 45 Colton Richardson fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
81.6%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to David UngererSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
81.8%
Cade Coffey punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Conner Cramer for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
84.3%
Jason Huntley run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
84.5%
Nick Jeanty sacked by Aikeem Coleman for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+1
84.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 1 yd to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+5
83.9%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
83.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the Idaho 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:1916% → 15%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+29
83.8%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 29 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
83.0%
Isaiah Saunders run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
83.0%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to Alfonso OnunworSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+4
83.2%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+15
83.6%
Richardson, C pass incomplete to Elliss, Kaden, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Lomax, Shamad) 15 yards to the NMSU22, 1ST DOWN UI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
82.7%
Aaron Duckworth run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-1
82.7%
Colton Richardson sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 7
OPP 19
-5
83.3%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
84.1%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to David UngererSimilar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+41
85.1%
Cade Coffey 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
85.6%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Kaden EllissSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
85.6%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+8
85.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
85.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Gregory Hogan for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-1
85.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+3
85.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 3 yds Jaleel Scott fumbled, forced by Jacob Sannon, recovered by Idaho Jalen HooverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:4116% → 24%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
84.4%
Isaiah Saunders run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
83.9%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 8 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+25
75.8%
Colton Richardson pass complete to David Ungerer for 25 yds for a TD, (Cade Coffey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 1:2679% → 78%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.1%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
79.2%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
79.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
80.2%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+26
79.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 26 yds to the Idaho 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
81.5%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
81.4%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-4
80.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Idaho 38Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 14
OPP 38
-5
78.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Idaho 43Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
78.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 39 yds, downed at the Idaho 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
81.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:3179% → 79%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
78.6%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
78.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 10 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
79.2%
Nick Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
79.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+20
79.3%
Nick Jeanty run for 20 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
80.3%
Larry Rose III run for 16 yds to the Idaho 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
80.4%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the Idaho 15Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-6
80.4%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 6 yards to the Idaho 21Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+5
79.6%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jason Huntley for 5 yds to the Idaho 16Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
78.9%
Dylan Brown 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Jalen Hoover return for 21 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0025% → 21%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
75.2%
Aaron Duckworth run for no gain to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
75.2%
Colton Richardson run for no gain to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-6
76.4%
Colton Richardson sacked by Myles Vigne and Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
78.7%
Cade Coffey punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
79.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Anthony Muse for 6 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
80.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
79.2%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Arie AndersonSimilar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+23
78.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the NEWMEXST 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4525% → 29%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
75.1%
Aaron Duckworth run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+15
75.1%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 15 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
73.3%
Colton Richardson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
73.3%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to David UngererSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
74.9%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to David UngererSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
70.8%
Cade Coffey 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 0:0075% → 72%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.5%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
75.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Conner Cramer for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
74.9%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
76.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Izaiah Lottie) to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-9
75.1%
Nick Jeanty sacked by Arie Anderson for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 24
OWN 29
+1
74.1%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 23
OWN 30
0
72.9%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 23
OWN 30
+3
72.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 56 yds , David Ungerer returns for 3 yds to the Idaho 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 25%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
72.1%
Aaron Duckworth run for 4 yds to the Idaho 21Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
72.2%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for no gain to the Idaho 21Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-5
73.5%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Conner Vrba) to the Idaho 16Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+14
73.9%
Colton Richardson run for 14 yds to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
71.7%
Isaiah Saunders run for 2 yds to the Idaho 32Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-8
71.3%
Colton Richardson sacked by Leon McQuaker and Terrill Hanks for a loss of 8 yards to the Idaho 24Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 16
OWN 24
-5
73.8%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Colton Richardson) to the Idaho 19Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 21
OWN 19
+5
73.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for 5 yds to the Idaho 24Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
74.6%
Cade Coffey punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 2:4175% → 86%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
74.9%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
74.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+14
72.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 14 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
76.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 8 yds to the Idaho 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+16
77.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 16 yds to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
78.5%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 9 yds to the Idaho 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+8
78.5%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the Idaho 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
78.5%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
78.5%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 7 yds to the Idaho 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
77.2%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Armond HawkinsSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
86.3%
Dylan Brown 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to David UngererSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.4%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
83.3%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Sean Tulette) to the Idaho 22Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-10
83.7%
Colton Richardson sacked by Dalton Herrington for a loss of 10 yards to the Idaho 12Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+7
84.4%
Cade Coffey punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 35 , Larry Rose III returns for 7 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
86.8%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Sedrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
86.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
82.6%
Colton Richardson sacked by Cedric Wilcots II and Terrill Hanks for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 15Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+5
83.1%
Colton Richardson pass complete to David Ungerer for 5 yds to the Idaho 20Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-3
84.1%
Colton Richardson sacked by Cedric Wilcots II and Malik Demby for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 17Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
84.8%
Cade Coffey punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Idaho 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:2590% → 91%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
89.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 7 yds to the Idaho 23Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-2
89.7%
Nick Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 25Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+14
89.0%
Nick Jeanty run for 14 yds to the Idaho 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
90.8%
Nick Jeanty pass intercepted, touchback. Armond Hawkins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:3214% → 15%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.1%
Dylan Thigpen run for 2 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+31
86.3%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 31 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.0%
Dylan Thigpen run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
82.6%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Dylan Thigpen for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
81.9%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to Reuben Mwehla, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
83.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.0%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to Kaden EllissSimilar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
82.0%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to Alfonso Onunwor, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+7
84.2%
Colton Richardson pass complete to David Ungerer for 7 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 3
OPP 29
-4
84.6%
Colton Richardson sacked by Terrill Hanks and Leon McQuaker for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 1:5493% → 96%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
93.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
93.2%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Sedrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+14
92.9%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
95.4%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
95.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+2
95.7%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
96.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 35 yds, fair catch by David Ungerer at the Idaho 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 27INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:047% → 7%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
92.8%
Colton Richardson pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 9 yds to the Idaho 21Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+1
92.1%
Colton Richardson pass complete to David Ungerer for 1 yd to the Idaho 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.6%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to Jacob SannonSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-8
92.8%
Colton Richardson sacked by Terrill Hanks for a loss of 8 yards to the Idaho 14Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 18
OWN 14
0
93.3%
Colton Richardson pass incomplete to Kaden Elliss, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 18
OWN 14
+15
93.5%
Richardson, C pass incomplete to Onunwor, A, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Lomax, Shamad) 15 yards to the UI29, 1ST DOWN UI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
92.6%
Colton Richardson pass intercepted Jaden Wright return for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 12:29
Dylan Brown 24 yd FG GOOD
+9.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:10
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34
+8.7
TD · Q2 1:46
Colton Richardson pass complete to David Ungerer for 25 yds for a TD, (Cade Coffey KICK)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com