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NMSU

New Mexico State 34 at Louisiana 47

UL
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:15 · Dion Ray pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 10 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior−8.6Home team on offense+8.0Garbage-time factor+1.7Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:33: Jordan Davis run for 43 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +10.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:15: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 29 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:05: Stevie Artigue 28 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +10.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:25: Larry Rose III run for 7 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +16.4 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 10:21: Jordan Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 33 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +26.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:30UL 4th & 3 at NMSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:38NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:00UL 4th & 2 at NMSU 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%−0.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−5.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:00NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:07NMSU 4th & 7 at UL 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:23UL 4th & 3 at NMSU 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.6
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:15UL 4th & 5 at NMSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:05UL 4th & 3 at NMSU 11, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%−0.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−9.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:25UL 4th & 6 at UL 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:19NMSU 4th & 2 at UL 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−15.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:21NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:39UL 4th & 13 at UL 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−3.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:06UL 4th & 10 at UL 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:59NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:46UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:30NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:38UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:20UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:33UL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:36NMSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:15NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:25NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:21UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:31UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.1%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1432% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.4%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
32.4%
Davis, Jordan sideline pass complete to Bradley, Ja'Marcus for 5 yards to the LA33, PENALTY NMSU offside (Demby, Malik) 5 yards to the LA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
32.4%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 11 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
32.4%
Jordan Davis run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+14
32.4%
Trey Ragas run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
32.4%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
32.4%
Trey Ragas run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
32.4%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+30
32.4%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 30 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 33
0
32.4%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.2%
Dion Ray run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:5234% → 43%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
34.3%
Jordan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
34.3%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 12 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
34.5%
Jordan Davis run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
34.8%
Darius Hoggins run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
35.0%
Darius Hoggins run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 21
-5
35.0%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+4
34.8%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+7
34.6%
Sam Geraci pass complete to Trey Ragas for 7 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
35.0%
Jordan Davis run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+3
35.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
35.0%
Dion Ray run for no gain to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
35.0%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
42.8%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
41.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
41.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
42.1%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Kevon Perry for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+7
42.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 52 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for 7 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:4044% → 48%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
44.2%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
44.3%
Wright, Jordan rush up middle for 2 yards to the LA40 (Fergurson, Javahn), PENALTY NMSU offside (Bradley, Stody) 5 yards to the LA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
45.4%
Jordan Wright run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
45.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 17 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
45.6%
Jordan Wright run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
45.7%
Ryheem Malone run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+1
45.0%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 1 yd to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+11
44.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 11 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+35
47.5%
Stevie Artigue 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
46.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
47.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+9
48.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 38 yds , Earnest Patterson returns for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:1349% → 59%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
49.3%
Trey Ragas run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
49.4%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+31
58.6%
Trey Ragas run for 31 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 4:1345% → 45%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
54.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+20
54.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 20 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
53.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+2
53.0%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+5
53.1%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
52.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+12
52.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 12 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
52.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Tracy Walker) to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
52.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
52.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
53.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 0
OPP 3
-4
52.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, delay of game (Dylan Brown) to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
55.5%
Dylan Brown 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:3458% → 70%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
58.0%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 5 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+15
58.8%
Darius Hoggins run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
59.2%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem Malone, broken up by Austin PerkinsSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
70.1%
Jordan Davis run for 43 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5731% → 43%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
68.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
67.5%
Rogers, Tyler sideline pass incomplete to Clark, OJ, PENALTY LA pass interference (Varnado, Levarious) 15 yards to the LA48, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
65.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 7 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+29
65.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 29 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
64.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
64.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+10
66.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 10 yds to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 1:1363% → 71%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
62.9%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 13 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
64.2%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
63.8%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+19
62.6%
Jordan Davis run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
65.2%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 23 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
65.4%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
65.4%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 7 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
65.9%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
70.5%
Stevie Artigue 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
68.2%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4530% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
68.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
69.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 24 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
67.5%
Jason Huntley run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
52.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 29 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 6:1060% → 72%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for no gain to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
59.2%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Ken Marks) to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
58.9%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 16 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
60.5%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
61.9%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
60.8%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
61.9%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+15
62.0%
Ray, Dion deep sideline pass incomplete to Malone, Ryheem, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Nwangwa, Jacob) 15 yards to the NMSU33, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
62.4%
Darius Hoggins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
62.4%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Devin ScottSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
61.3%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete, broken up by Roy LopezSimilar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+10
59.5%
Dion Ray pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 10 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
62.4%
Dion Ray pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 6 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+1
62.4%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
61.3%
Dion Ray pass incomplete to Earnest PattersonSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
71.7%
Stevie Artigue 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:4029% → 51%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
70.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 13 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
70.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
70.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+9
71.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
69.2%
Jason Huntley run for 23 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
66.2%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
65.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+16
65.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 16 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
65.7%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
49.3%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
56.2%
Trey Ragas run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
56.9%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
56.6%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
55.1%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
54.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:3447% → 57%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
52.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Conner Cramer for 12 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
51.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+9
50.8%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
50.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 13 yds to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
49.4%
Nick Jeanty run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.5%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
51.5%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
43.1%
Dylan Brown 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:5852% → 85%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
51.5%
Darius Hoggins run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
53.9%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-5
53.3%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47 LOUISIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (Cole Prudhomme) to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
50.5%
Jordan Davis sacked by Malik Demby for a loss of 15 yards to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Javahn Fergurson) to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
52.6%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
52.6%
Dion Ray run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
56.3%
Trey Ragas run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
56.5%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
57.7%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+33
84.8%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 33 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
78.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Anthony Muse for 7 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+16
77.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to OJ Clark for 16 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
76.8%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
77.4%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-4
76.3%
Nick Jeanty sacked by Kevon Perry for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
80.5%
Peyton Theisler punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:3284% → 84%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
84.4%
Darius Hoggins run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-7
84.4%
Hoggins, Darius rush off left side for 11 yards to the LA26 (Fa'amasino, Lui;LaForce, Ron), PENALTY LA holding (Wade, Staten) 7 yards to the LA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-1
83.9%
Darius Hoggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 13
OWN 7
0
85.0%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 13
OWN 7
0
84.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaLaf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+50
79.8%
Nick Jeanty pass intercepted Jacques Boudreaux return for 50 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:3589% → 97%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
89.0%
Trey Ragas run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.8%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23INT
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
95.4%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 13 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Justin Middleton) to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.7%
Nick Jeanty pass intercepted Justin Middleton return for no gain to the LaLaf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5997% → 98%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
96.6%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
96.4%
Dion Ray run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-5
97.6%
Dion Ray run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
97.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.1%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
98.1%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-6
98.1%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+14
98.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 14 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
97.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 14 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
97.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+3
97.6%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Anthony Muse for 3 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+4
97.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Anthony Muse for 4 yds to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
97.6%
Nick Jeanty pass intercepted Koa Haynes return for no gain to the LaLaf 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 12
OWN 7
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:21
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 33 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+26.5
TD · Q3 3:25
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q3 13:15
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 29 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com