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NMSU

New Mexico State 45 at Texas State 35

TXST
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:28 · Marcus Ripley punt for 43 yds , Larry Rose III returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior−6.3Home team on offense−6.4Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:48: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 29 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +13.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:00: Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 13 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK) — TXST win probability +21.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 9:44: Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +15.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:02: Jaylin Nelson pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 69 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK) — TXST win probability +23.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:22: Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 14 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 6:24NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:53TXST 4th & 8 at NMSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:47NMSU 4th & 5 at TXST 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:16TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 29, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:57NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:05TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:58NMSU 4th & 8 at TXST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:58TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:25TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:45TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:55NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.4
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:28TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−5.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:56NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−2.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:38TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 44, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:29TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:49NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:28TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:57NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:12TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:48NMSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:10NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:00TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:44NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:02TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:22NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3124% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
24.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 15 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
24.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 5 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+15
24.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 15 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
24.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+10
24.2%
Damian Williams run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
24.2%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
24.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 6 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+5
24.2%
Williams, Damian pass incomplete to Schrade,Gabe (Laforce, Ron), PENALTY NMSU offside (Lopez, Roy) 5 yards to the NMSU10, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
26.4%
Hutch White pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 10 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3874% → 74%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.2%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
26.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
26.1%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
26.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+23
26.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 23 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+36
25.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 36 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:2127% → 32%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Quinn Tiggs for 11 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
26.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 9 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
27.3%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+15
27.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Quinn Tiggs for 15 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
27.3%
Anthony Smith run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
27.3%
Anthony Smith run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+9
27.2%
Damian Williams run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
27.4%
Williams, Damian sideline pass complete to Tiggs,Quinn for 13 yards to the NMSU11 (Perkins, Austin), PENALTY TXST illegal block (White,Hutch) 10 yards to the NMSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+20
27.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 20 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
27.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 3 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
27.4%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
31.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 11 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+18
31.3%
Larry Rose III run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
31.1%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+11
31.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 11 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
30.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for no gain to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
30.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+7
31.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
31.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
33.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
33.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+13
34.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 13 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
34.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+15
34.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 15 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
34.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Dalton HerringtonSimilar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
34.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-2
34.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
33.5%
James Sherman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5665% → 63%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
35.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-2
35.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+3
36.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 3 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
37.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
37.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 21 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
38.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 11 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
38.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
38.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 13 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
38.4%
Anthony Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-8
38.4%
Damian Williams sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 19
OPP 28
+19
37.2%
James Sherman sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for 0 yards to the NMxSt 47 James Sherman fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Lui Fa'amasino , return for 0 yards , return for 19 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
37.0%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
37.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+5
38.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
38.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 46 yds, downed at the TexSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
39.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+16
39.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 16 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
39.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 9 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
40.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by Ron LaForceSimilar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
39.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
38.4%
Marcus Ripley punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:0159% → 68%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
41.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+31
40.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 31 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
31.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 44 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:3936% → 45%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
35.5%
Willie Jones III run for 11 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
44.6%
Tyler Watts run for 76 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
43.8%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
43.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+18
44.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
42.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
43.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
44.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -18 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 0
-7
46.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (-7 Yards) to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
46.4%
Jaylin Nelson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
46.4%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
45.5%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 6
OWN 11
+17
44.6%
Marcus Ripley punt for 53 yds , Larry Rose III returns for 17 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2256% → 59%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
43.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 13 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
42.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
42.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 11 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
42.2%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
42.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
44.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+35
41.1%
Dylan Brown 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Eric Luna for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
44.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Eric Luna for 5 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
44.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Eric Luna for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
45.2%
Anthony J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
43.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+1
42.2%
Marcus Ripley punt for 54 yds , Larry Rose III returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16END OF HALF
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:4255% → 57%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
44.7%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+5
45.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+8
45.3%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
43.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 20 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
44.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
42.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-7
43.5%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Gabe Loyd for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.2%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
44.4%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
45.5%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
47.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 12 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
48.3%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
48.2%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
48.1%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
46.0%
Marcus Ripley punt for 38 yds, downed at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 2:0453% → 71%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
47.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 26 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
44.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 14 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
43.3%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
43.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
29.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 29 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:4936% → 34%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
35.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 9 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
38.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Quinn Tiggs, broken up by Roy LopezSimilar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
37.6%
Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
37.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
35.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
34.2%
Damian Williams sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 13 yards to the TexSt 16 Damian Williams fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Malik Demby , return for 0 yards , return for 8 yds to the TexSt 16 Shane Jackson fumbled, recovered by TexSt Robert Brown Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
34.1%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
33.9%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
32.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Dalton HerringtonSimilar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
31.8%
Marcus Ripley punt for 42 yds, downed at the NMxSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0069% → 70%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
30.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+8
30.4%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
29.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
30.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 6 yds Johnathan Boone fumbled, forced by Bryan London II, recovered by TexSt Sami AwadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23INT
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0038% → 40%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
38.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony J. Taylor for 21 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
39.7%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+7
39.6%
Damian Williams pass intercepted Dalton Herrington return for 7 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:4371% → 84%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
29.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
29.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 13 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
29.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 12 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
27.6%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
16.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 22 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:0519% → 44%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+23
18.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 23 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
20.3%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
19.9%
Taylor, Anthony D. rush over right tackle for 5 yards to the TXST46 (Laforce, Ron), PENALTY NMSU offside (Clark, OJ) 5 yards to the TXST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
20.6%
Anthony Smith run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
21.5%
Anthony Smith run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
21.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+12
20.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 12 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
22.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+10
22.7%
Anthony Smith run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
22.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
43.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 13 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
34.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
32.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
34.2%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
36.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0037% → 33%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-13
36.9%
Damian Williams sacked by Roy Lopez for a loss of 13 yards to the TexSt 19 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 23
OWN 19
+19
35.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 4 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, UR (Myles Vigne) to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
38.3%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 31 Damian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+2
35.7%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
34.0%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+1
33.2%
Marcus Ripley punt for 43 yds , Larry Rose III returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0668% → 89%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+68
32.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 68 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
26.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
26.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 10 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
26.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.2%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4213% → 36%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.8%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+69
36.3%
Jaylin Nelson pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 69 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0071% → 68%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
28.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
29.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for no gain to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+9
30.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-5
29.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, DOG (Peyton Theisler) to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
32.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
34.2%
Anthony Smith run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
35.7%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
35.3%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+7
32.9%
Willie Jones III run for 7 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
34.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:3375% → 95%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
24.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 11 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
24.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
23.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason Huntley, broken up by Frankie GriffinSimilar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+40
24.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 40 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
18.6%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+11
19.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 11 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
18.6%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
5.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 14 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 33FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
5.8%
Willie Jones III sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 20 Willie Jones III fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Myles Vigne , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 34Uncategorized
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:2295% → 96%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
5.3%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
5.2%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+11
4.1%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.3%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
4.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:02
Jaylin Nelson pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 69 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)
+23.4
TD · Q3 0:00
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 13 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)
+21
TD · Q4 9:44
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com