Try the model
UL

Louisiana 19 at South Alabama 14

USA
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:59 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:34: Levi Lewis pass complete to Chase Rogers for 13 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +13.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:06: Jordan Wright run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23 — UL win probability +9.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:38: Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 12 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +10.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:17: Levi Lewis run for no gain to the LaLaf 6 — UL win probability +10.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:59: Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 18 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +9.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 9 at USA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:06UL 4th & 4 at USA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:59USA 4th & 20 at USA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:17UL 4th & 7 at USA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:17USA 4th & 10 at USA 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:34USA 4th & 26 at USA 9, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:34USA 4th & 16 at USA 40, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:10UL 4th & 3 at USA 3, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−12.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UL 4th & 10 at UL 35, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:03UL 4th & 1 at UL 47, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−3.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:46USA 4th & 10 at USA 42, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UL 4th & 1 at USA 42, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−6.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UL 4th & 16 at USA 46, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−2.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:59UL 4th & 4 at UL 44, up 12
    Close callPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:52USA 4th & 11 at USA 20, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:32UL 4th & 1 at USA 11, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−1.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−4.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:59USA 4th & 13 at UL 18, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:34UL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:34UL Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38USA Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:59USA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
71.2%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
71.2%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
71.2%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
71.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
71.0%
Levi Lewis run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
71.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
71.0%
Levi Lewis run for 4 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
71.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
71.0%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
71.0%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
71.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.6%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
70.6%
Dallas Davis run for 10 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
70.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tra Minter for 7 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-1
70.9%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 41Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-15
70.7%
Davis, Dallas pass complete to Harris, Sam for 5 yards to the USA46 (Greenhouse, K.), PENALTY USA pass interference (Stanley, Malik) 15 yards to the USA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 19
OWN 26
-1
70.4%
Denzel Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 25Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+21
70.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 46 , Earnest Patterson returns for 21 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:5831% → 32%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
69.0%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
68.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Trey Ragas for 6 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
68.9%
Darius Hoggins run for 20 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
68.7%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
68.7%
Levi Lewis run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
68.9%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
68.1%
Stevie Artigue 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.9%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
68.6%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
68.3%
Dallas Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
68.2%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
67.8%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+3
67.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 51 yds , Earnest Patterson returns for 3 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 3:4133% → 39%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
67.3%
Darius Hoggins run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
67.3%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+18
67.8%
Levi Lewis run for 18 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
66.9%
Darius Hoggins run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
66.4%
Levi Lewis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+5
65.3%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
65.0%
Darius Hoggins run for 4 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-5
64.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
65.3%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+54
60.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 54 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.3%
Sa'Mory Collier run for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
60.7%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Sa'Mory CollierSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-22
60.1%
Dallas Davis sacked by T.J. Posey for a loss of 22 yards to the SAlab 9 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, intentional grounding (Dallas Davis) to the SAlab 9Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 26
OWN 9
+19
59.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 46 , Earnest Patterson returns for 19 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:1941% → 54%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
59.5%
Levi Lewis run for 12 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
59.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 3 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+1
59.2%
Levi Lewis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+17
59.7%
Trey Ragas run for 17 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
45.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chase Rogers for 13 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
50.9%
Denzel Foster run for 7 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+11
51.2%
Denzel Foster run for 11 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
51.2%
Carlos Robinson II run for 4 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
52.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 5 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
52.4%
Carlos Robinson II run for 3 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
52.5%
Garvin, Cole pass complete to Reinkemeyer, A for 2 yards to the USA48 (Mitchell, D.), PENALTY USA illegal touching (Reinkemeyer, A) 5 yards to the USA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-1
51.7%
Denzel Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
51.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to David GardnerSimilar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 16
OWN 40
0
50.9%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
50.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10FG
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:5659% → 71%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
40.9%
Jordan Wright run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+34
40.8%
Trey Ragas run for 34 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
39.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+32
39.5%
Levi Lewis run for 32 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
39.3%
Jordan Wright run for 5 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
39.3%
Jordan Wright run for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.8%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Michael JacquetSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
29.0%
Stevie Artigue 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 2:3236% → 47%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
36.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 9 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
37.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 6 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
36.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
50
+3
38.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 3 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
38.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+8
38.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 8 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
38.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 13 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
40.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 6 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+8
36.3%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
46.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 12 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
40.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
42.8%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+3
43.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+13
43.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 13 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Michael JacquetSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
42.5%
Darius Hoggins run for no gain to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
43.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Keenan Barnes, broken up by Darian MillsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
43.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14INT
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0039% → 41%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
39.0%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+3
39.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 3 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
39.5%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
39.0%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+9
38.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 9 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
40.3%
Carlos Robinson II run for 25 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
42.7%
Carlos Robinson II run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+22
40.6%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted Corey Turner return for 22 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
31.0%
Darius Hoggins run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
30.9%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
31.2%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
32.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
32.0%
Jamarius Way run for 12 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
32.7%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+2
33.9%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
33.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-11
32.9%
Cole Garvin sacked by T.J. Posey for a loss of 11 yards to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 21
OWN 31
-10
30.8%
Robinson,Carlos rush for 7 yards to the USA38 (Boudreaux, J.), PENALTY USA holding (Francis, Mseiah) 10 yards to the USA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 31
OWN 21
+21
30.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 21 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+7
31.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 43 yds , Earnest Patterson returns for 7 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 2:3876% → 79%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
24.2%
Levi Lewis run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
23.6%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
23.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 15 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
22.3%
Levi Lewis run for 3 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
22.2%
Levi Lewis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
18.2%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
20.2%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
18.3%
Lewis, Levi pass complete to Ford, Raynard for 6 yards to the USA34 (Cole, Riley), PENALTY LA holding (Prudhomme, C.) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
50
+5
18.6%
Darius Hoggins run for 5 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-1
18.6%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 46 LOUISIANA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
19.0%
Darius Hoggins run for no gain to the SAlab 46 Darius Hoggins fumbled, forced by Chris Henderson, recovered by LaLaf D'Aquin WithrowSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
20.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 31 yds, downed at the SAlab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18INT
5 plays · 73 yds · 0:2020% → 23%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+81
19.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 81 yds to the LaLaf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
23.5%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
23.5%
Minter, Tra rush for loss of 1 yard to the LA3 (Kidd, LaDarrius;Walker, Tracy), PENALTY USA holding (Fisher, Noah) 10 yards to the LA12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
23.0%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted T.J. Posey return for 3 yds to the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:1887% → 91%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
12.7%
Levi Lewis run for no gain to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
12.9%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+32
13.3%
Levi Lewis run for 32 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
11.7%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
11.7%
Levi Lewis run for no gain to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+1
11.8%
Levi Lewis run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+47
8.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sam Harris at the SOUTHALA 18 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalin Buie) to the SAlab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
9.7%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 9Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+6
9.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 6 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+6
9.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 6 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
10.1%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Andrew Reinkemeyer, broken up by T.J. PoseySimilar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
9.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-1
9.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 20Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
9.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1594% → 97%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
6.1%
Levi Lewis run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
6.2%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+6
6.4%
Levi Lewis run for 6 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
3.4%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the SAlab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 1:274% → 13%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
4.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 11 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
4.3%
Garvin, Cole pass incomplete to Harris, Sam, PENALTY LA roughing passer (Mitchell, M.) 15 yards to the USA37, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
4.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 6 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
4.4%
Garvin, Cole pass incomplete to Francis, Mseiah, PENALTY LA pass interference (Walker, Tracy) 5 yards to the USA48, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
4.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik Stanley, broken up by Kamar GreenhouseSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
4.5%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Simeon ThomasSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+21
4.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 21 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
6.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
6.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 16 yds to the LaLaf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
6.5%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Maaseiah Francis, broken up by Corey TurnerSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-3
6.5%
Cole Garvin sacked by Tracy Walker and Kevon Perry for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 13
OPP 18
0
3.0%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+18
12.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 18 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-1
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:34
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chase Rogers for 13 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q2 0:38
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 12 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
+10.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:17
Levi Lewis run for no gain to the LaLaf 6
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com