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APP

App State 45 at UL Monroe 52

ULM
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:39 · Xavier Subotsch punt for 55 yds, downed at the LaMon 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior−18.2Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:41: Caleb Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +21.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:39: Jalin Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +19.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:17: Derrick Gore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +32.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:53: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 20 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +43.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:23: Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 50 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +36.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 8 at APP 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:39APP 4th & 10 at APP 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51APP 4th & 8 at ULM 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−5.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:22ULM 4th & 5 at APP 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−1.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:31ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:22APP 4th & 3 at ULM 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    63.0%−0.7
    80% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−10.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:35ULM 4th & 3 at APP 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.4%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:49ULM 4th & 6 at APP 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−10.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:49APP 4th & 20 at APP 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−9.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:41ULM 4th & 1 at APP 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−6.6
    84% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−27.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:02APP 4th & 1 at ULM 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−6.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−8.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:59ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:59ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:39ULM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:22APP Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:57APP Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:29ULM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:16APP Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:31APP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:41ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:39APP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:17ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−2.0
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:53APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−2.9
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 0:23ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.9%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
30.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 5 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
30.9%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
30.9%
Derrick Gore run for 7 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+13
30.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 13 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
30.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 7 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
30.9%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
-5
30.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
30.9%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
30.9%
Harrison Heim punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-9
32.4%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Roland Jenkins for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 2Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 19
OWN 2
+9
32.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
32.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
32.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 55 yds, downed at the LaMon 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:1033% → 38%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
33.2%
Derrick Gore run for 6 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
33.5%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+14
33.2%
Caleb Evans run for 14 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
33.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 12 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
33.7%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+8
33.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 8 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
33.8%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
38.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 21 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0063% → 64%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
36.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-7
36.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 39 Daetrich Harrington fumbled, recovered by LaMon David GriffithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5TD
1 play · 39 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
43.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 39 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:0859% → 56%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
41.4%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+8
41.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for 8 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
41.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+8
40.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 8 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
41.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 13 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
40.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 14 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
40.3%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-7
40.1%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Rashaad Harding for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+15
41.2%
Lamb,Taylor pass incomplete to Hennigan, Thomas, PENALTY ULM offside declined, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Offray, Juwan) 15 yards to the ULM20, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
40.1%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 19Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+1
40.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malik Williams for 1 yd to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
47.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike Lewis, broken up by David GriffithSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
44.5%
Chandler Staton 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1746% → 53%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.1%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
53.6%
Jalin Moore run for 16 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
53.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
52.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+8
53.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 8 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
52.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 28 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
52.0%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
47.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 7 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
51.7%
Derrick Gore run for 24 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
53.2%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-1
53.1%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-5
52.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+9
51.5%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
51.5%
Harrison Heim punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:4147% → 59%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.4%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+31
53.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 31 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
51.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 6 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+8
51.0%
Jalin Moore run for 8 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
40.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 31 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2846% → 65%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
46.4%
Derrick Gore run for 19 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
48.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 31 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
49.2%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-10
49.1%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Williams, Brian, PENALTY ULM holding (Thomas, Eastwood) 10 yards to the APP36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 21
OPP 36
+19
47.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 19 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
48.3%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
49.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 7 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
64.7%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
47.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalin Moore for 75 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13INT
8 plays · 62 yds · 0:2949% → 54%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+25
48.7%
Kayin White run for 25 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
51.1%
Kayin White run for 1 yd to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+15
52.0%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Turner, RJ, PENALTY APP roughing passer (Fuller,Caleb) 15 yards to the APP41, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
53.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Duke Carter IV for 12 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
53.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 9 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+6
53.5%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Desmond Franklin return for 6 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
48.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2951% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.2%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+24
48.5%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Cortez Sisco Jr.) to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
45.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
45.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+13
46.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 13 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
44.5%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+26
44.2%
Ike Lewis run for 26 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.6%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
38.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+1
41.4%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
40.3%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+35
38.9%
Harrison Heim punt for 43 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 35 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
50
+16
33.8%
Jalin Moore run for 16 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
32.8%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+6
32.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 6 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
32.5%
Taylor Lamb run for 6 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+1
32.5%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 17Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
33.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Levi Duffield, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 3
OPP 17
-3
35.8%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:5439% → 67%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
39.1%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+17
41.9%
Kayin White run for 17 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
41.0%
Kayin White run for 9 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-2
43.3%
Kayin White run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+19
41.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 19 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
45.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+18
44.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 18 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
45.4%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Williams, Brian, PENALTY APP pass interference (Duck,Clifton) 10 yards to the APP2, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
45.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian Williams, broken up by Clifton DuckSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.8%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0241% → 68%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+60
58.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 60 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
51.6%
Jalin Moore run for 8 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
31.9%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:5040% → 54%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
39.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 24 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
44.1%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+8
44.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 8 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
45.3%
Caleb Evans sacked by Antonious Sims for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+4
42.2%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+12
43.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 12 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
47.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Anthony FlorySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
47.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Desmond FranklinSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+4
44.2%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
54.1%
Craig Ford 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0052% → 48%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.9%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
48.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Colby Gossett) to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-9
49.9%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Ty Shelby for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 15Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+12
51.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 57 yds , Marcus Green returns for 12 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 6:2456% → 93%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
56.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Juwan Offray for 9 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
58.0%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
58.6%
Derrick Gore run for 7 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+16
58.7%
Derrick Gore run for 16 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
60.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
59.9%
Duke Carter IV run for 8 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
58.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 1 yd to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
55.5%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
60.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Frank Sutton Jr.) to the AppSt 17Similar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+1
59.8%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 16Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+14
58.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 14 yds to the AppSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.1%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 1Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.0%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
14 plays · 43 yds · 2:2418% → 62%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
82.5%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
81.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to T.J. Watkins, broken up by Jaylen VeasleySimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-5
82.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, illegal procedure (Noah Hannon) to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+10
84.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 10 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
83.8%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
79.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Jalin Moore) to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+8
83.6%
Jalin Moore run for 8 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
81.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+9
85.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalin Moore for 9 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
81.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Juwan OffraySimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
38.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 20 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 0:3058% → 96%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
57.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
60.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
50
+50
96.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 50 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:2012% → 14%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
88.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 11 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
86.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 5 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
86.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Dante JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:53
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 20 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-43
TD · Q4 0:23
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 50 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+36
TD · Q4 3:17
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+32.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com