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TXST

Texas State 27 at Coastal Carolina 7

CCU
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFUMBLETDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:24 · Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−43.4Pregame prior+4.8Score differential−22.0Garbage-time factor−8.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:20: Damian Williams pass complete to Eric Luna for 7 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK) — TXST win probability +12.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:07: Malcolm Williams run for 4 yds to the CCaro 15 — TXST win probability +5.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:54: Foster Hilborn 37 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +10.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:22: Anthony Smith run for 11 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST down — TXST win probability +8.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:21: Anthony Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK) — TXST win probability +11.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:07CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54TXST 4th & 7 at CCU 27, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:23CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:11CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:54TXST 4th & 9 at CCU 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:07CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:08TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:35CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:54TXST 4th & 3 at CCU 19, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%−1.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−12.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:48CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:21CCU 4th & 14 at CCU 49, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:24TXST 4th & 1 at CCU 40, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−2.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:24TXST 4th & 17 at CCU 42, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:23CCU 4th & 15 at CCU 36, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:15TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:20TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:21TXST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
73.0%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 1 yd to the CCaro 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
73.0%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Malcolm Williams, broken up by Stephan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+2
73.0%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Osharmar Abercrombie for 2 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
73.0%
Evan Rabon punt for 50 yds , Hutch White returns for no gain to the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:0927% → 29%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
72.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 7 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
72.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
72.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 5 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
72.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 4 yds to the TexSt 47 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 16
OWN 37
-1
72.6%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+10
72.7%
Williams, D. pass incomplete to Watts,Tyler, PENALTY COASTAL pass interference (Wattley, Fitz) 10 yards to the TXST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
70.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 54 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
71.0%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Chris Jones for 9 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
71.3%
Tyler Keane run for no gain to the CCaro 32Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
71.1%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for no gain to the CCaro 32Similar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+43
70.9%
Evan Rabon punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the COASTALCAR 20 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4FUMBLE TD
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:0830% → 30%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
69.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
69.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
69.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 2 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
69.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 6 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
69.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Chris French for 7 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
69.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 18 yds to the CCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
69.3%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
69.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
69.5%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the CCaro 27Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+50
70.4%
Team run for a loss of 23 yards Team fumbled, recovered by CCaro Anthony Chesley , return for 50 yds, (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
70.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-1
70.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
70.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
71.3%
Marcus Ripley punt for 44 yds , Chris Jones returns for no gain to the CCaro 24 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the CCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
70.5%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Omar Black for 17 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
71.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Chris JonesSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
70.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 7 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+11
71.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chris Jones for 11 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.7%
Alex James run for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
71.6%
Kilton Anderson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+21
71.4%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Gabe Loyd for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 29 Kilton Anderson fumbled, recovered by TexSt Frankie Griffin , return for 0 yards , return for 21 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1233% → 32%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
67.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the CCaro 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+7
67.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 7 yds to the CCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
67.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the CCaro 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-8
67.2%
Damian Williams sacked by Tarron Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the CCaro 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 21
+5
68.5%
Damian Williams pass intercepted Fitz Wattley return for 5 yds to the CCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:0169% → 69%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
69.4%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 3 yds to the CCaro 8Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+23
69.3%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Chris Jones for 23 yds to the CCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
69.8%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 26Similar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+5
69.6%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Alex James for 5 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
69.7%
Tyler Keane run for 8 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
69.5%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 1 yd to the CCaro 40Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+7
68.6%
Evan Rabon punt for 52 yds , Hutch White returns for 7 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 5:3133% → 49%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
67.1%
Damian Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+13
67.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 13 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+47
66.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 33 yds to the COASTALCAR 38 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (Dontay Hears) to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
65.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 8
50
+6
65.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the CCaro 44Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+8
64.9%
Jaylin Nelson run for 8 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
64.9%
Jaylin Nelson sacked by Ja'ree Tolbert for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 41Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+20
65.8%
Damian Williams run for 5 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shane Johnson) to the CCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
64.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the CCaro 20Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
64.0%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+12
65.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Eric Luna for 12 yds to the CCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
64.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 3 yds to the CCaro 5Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
64.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 7Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
51.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Eric Luna for 7 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
54.8%
Jacqez Hairston run for 2 yds to the CCaro 32 Jacqez Hairston fumbled, forced by A.J. Krawczyk, recovered by CCaro Jacqez HairstonSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
54.8%
Ky'Jon Tyler run for 8 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.4%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
55.5%
Alex James run for no gain to the CCaro 40Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
54.5%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Omar Black, broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
53.1%
Evan Rabon punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 2:0949% → 58%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
50.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 8 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+4
49.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
50.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 9 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+8
49.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 8 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
48.1%
Damian Williams run for 11 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
47.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+19
47.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 19 yds to the CCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
46.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 6 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+13
46.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 13 yds to the CCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
46.0%
Williams, D. pass incomplete to Watts,Tyler, PENALTY TXST holding (Foster,Nic) 10 yards to the COASTAL20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
0
44.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 0
OPP 20
+37
42.2%
Foster Hilborn 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 40 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
47.0%
Anthony Smith run for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
46.1%
Anthony Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
46.4%
Anthony Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
45.8%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
46.1%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
45.3%
Williams, D. pass incomplete to King,Elijah, PENALTY COASTAL pass interference (Chesley, A.) 15 yards to the COASTAL41, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
45.2%
Williams, D. pass incomplete to Johnson,Dennis, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Johnson,Dennis) 15 yards to the TXST44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 25
OWN 44
+1
46.1%
Damian Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 24
OWN 45
+15
46.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 15 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
45.7%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the CCaro 35Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-5
45.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal procedure (Reece Jordan) to the CCaro 40Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
45.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
46.8%
Marcus Ripley punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Chris Jones at the CCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
41.2%
Malcolm Williams run for 4 yds to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+4
41.4%
Alex James run for 4 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 2
OWN 19
-4
40.5%
Malcolm Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+1
39.3%
Evan Rabon punt for 50 yds , Hutch White returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 16 TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
40.6%
Williams, D. pass incomplete to Watts,Tyler, PENALTY COASTAL roughing passer 15 yards to the TXST41, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
38.9%
Taylor,Anthony rush for 3 yards to the TXST44 (Paul, Laqavious), PENALTY TXST holding 10 yards to the TXST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+3
40.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 3 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+1
41.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+8
42.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 8 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
41.2%
Marcus Ripley punt for 49 yds, downed at the CCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
36.5%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Chris Jones for 10 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
37.0%
Alex James run for 4 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
37.4%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
35.6%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Alex JamesSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+18
34.9%
Evan Rabon punt for 41 yds , Hutch White returns for 18 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5769% → 79%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
30.8%
Anthony Smith run for 15 yds to the CCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
30.0%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
30.1%
Williams, D. pass incomplete to King,Elijah, PENALTY COASTAL pass interference (Chesley, A.) 4 yards to the COASTAL26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
29.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
30.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+4
30.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 4 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
20.9%
Foster Hilborn 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
27.0%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 8 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 2
OWN 25
-4
27.7%
Alex James run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 21Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
25.9%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Alex JamesSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+3
25.9%
Evan Rabon punt for 38 yds , Hutch White returns for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:0183% → 96%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
17.5%
Anthony Smith run for 11 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
17.4%
Tyler Watts run for 31 yds to the CCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
16.7%
Damian Williams run for 6 yds to the CCaro 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
15.6%
Anthony Smith run for 3 yds to the CCaro 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
16.0%
Anthony Smith run for 4 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.2%
Anthony Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
6.1%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Alex James for 28 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
6.6%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete, broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
6.6%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive offside (Ky'Jon Tyler) to the CCaro 48Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
6.3%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Larry Collins Jr.Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+6
6.2%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 6 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 9
OPP 46
-5
6.5%
Keane, Tyler pass complete to Jones, Chris for 15 yards to the TXST31 (Williams, D.), PENALTY COASTAL ineligible downfield on pass (Franklin. Jack) 5 yards to the COASTAL49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
6.2%
Evan Rabon punt for 36 yds, downed at the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
14 plays · 43 yds · 5:0096% → 98%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
4.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+5
4.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Chris French for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+11
4.3%
Damian Williams run for 11 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
4.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 11 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
3.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 10 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
3.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
3.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Hutch White for 5 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+5
4.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
3.6%
Anthony Smith run for no gain to the CCaro 35Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
3.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Eric Luna, broken up by Preston CareySimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-10
1.7%
Damian Williams sacked by Shane Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the CCaro 42 Damian Williams fumbled, recovered by TexSt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
1.7%
Marcus Ripley punt for 37 yds, downed at the CCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
1.6%
Jacqez Hairston run for 1 yd to the CCaro 6Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
1.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Chris JonesSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+11
1.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jacqez Hairston for 11 yds to the CCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
1.7%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Ky'Jon Tyler, broken up by Easy AnyamaSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-2
1.7%
Kilton Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 15Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+12
1.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chris Jones for 12 yds to the CCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
1.7%
Kilton Anderson run for 14 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
1.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
1.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Chris JonesSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
1.8%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Brock Hoffman) to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 15
OWN 36
0
1.7%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Alex JamesSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
1.7%
Evan Rabon punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 68 yds · 0:1399% → 99%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.9%
Anthony Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
0.8%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+18
0.9%
Anthony Smith run for 18 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
0.8%
Anthony Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+5
0.8%
Jaylin Nelson run for 5 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+9
0.8%
Jaylin Nelson run for 9 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
0.7%
Jaylin Nelson run for 2 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+33
0.7%
Jaylin Nelson run for 33 yds to the CCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:20
Damian Williams pass complete to Eric Luna for 7 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q4 14:21
Anthony Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)
-11.8
FG · Q3 2:54
Foster Hilborn 37 yd FG GOOD
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com