Try the model
NMSU

New Mexico State 35 at Georgia Southern 27

GASO
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:05 · Tyler Rogers pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior−12.0Home team on offense−0.4Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:49: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:36: Dylan Brown kickoff for 35 yds , Dexter Carter Jr. return for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +11.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 10:50: Tyler Bass 41 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +8.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Conner Cramer pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 17 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +17.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:05: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — NMSU win probability +25.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 10NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:28GASO 4th & 1 at NMSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:21GASO 4th & 7 at NMSU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:15NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 17 at NMSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:28GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:03GASO 4th & 15 at NMSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:05NMSU 4th & 1 at GASO 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−2.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−7.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:22GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:50GASO 4th & 5 at NMSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−7.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:50NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 49, down 6
    Close callPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:39GASO 4th & 4 at midfield, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:45GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:54GASO 4th & 11 at NMSU 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−2.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:58GASO 4th & 16 at GASO 22, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:37NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:09GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:30NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:01GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:49NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:36GASO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54NMSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:05NMSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−3.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2371% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
29.4%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
29.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
29.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 23 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
29.4%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
29.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+15
29.4%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Tomarcio Reese) to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
29.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+26
29.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 26 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
29.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2TD
16 plays · 67 yds · 7:1930% → 35%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
29.8%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+15
29.8%
Wesley Fields run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
30.0%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
30.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
30.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
30.1%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
30.0%
Monteo Garrett run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+5
29.9%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
30.1%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+3
30.1%
Monteo Garrett run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
30.1%
Monteo Garrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+2
30.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+10
30.0%
Shai Werts run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
30.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3966% → 70%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.6%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
33.4%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
33.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
29.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 59 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
31.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Myles Campbell for 13 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
31.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for no gain to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
31.8%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
31.8%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
31.0%
Matt Flynn punt for 36 yds, downed at the NMxSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
30.6%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+6
30.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
31.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
31.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds , Myles Campbell returns for no gain to the NMxSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
38.0%
Wesley Fields run for 48 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0165% → 63%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
35.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
35.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for no gain to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
36.1%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Raymond Johnson III for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+1
36.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 51 yds , Myles Campbell returns for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
37.4%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
37.5%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-2
36.9%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+6
36.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 50 yds , Jaden Wright returns for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
37.0%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Monquavion Brinson return for no gain to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10FG
9 plays · 18 yds · 4:0641% → 44%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
40.8%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+8
40.8%
L.A. Ramsby run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
40.8%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+8
40.8%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
40.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Myles Campbell for no gain to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
40.8%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
43.3%
Shai Werts sacked by Javahn Fergurson for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
43.6%
Tyler Bass 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:1457% → 68%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Josh AganonSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
44.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 15 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
41.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+39
42.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 39 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
40.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Josh AganonSimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+17
40.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 11 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST down Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (RJ Murray) to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Kindle VildorSimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 4:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
32.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:3156% → 58%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
44.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
42.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
42.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+28
42.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 28 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
40.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
40.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+9
41.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
42.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
45.9%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
45.6%
Wesley Fields run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-4
45.2%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 23 Shai Werts fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Shai WertsSimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
43.8%
Matt Flynn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaden Wright at the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:0857% → 56%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
43.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 14 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
41.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
42.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 6 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
44.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
43.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
42.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+44
44.3%
Dylan Brown 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
48.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:1047% → 58%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
47.8%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+28
46.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to Myles Campbell for 28 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
50.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Demarcus Godfrey for 12 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
51.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
51.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+1
49.9%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
58.3%
Tyler Bass 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
52.5%
Jason Huntley run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
53.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+7
53.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
51.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
54.5%
Peyton Theisler punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
59.8%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
59.3%
Monteo Garrett run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+8
58.3%
Shai Werts run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
60.0%
Monteo Garrett run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+7
62.0%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
62.4%
Demarcus Godfrey run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+2
62.2%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+3
61.1%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 4
50
0
60.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4640% → 64%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
60.2%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Traver Vliem and Deshon Cooper for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+12
60.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+15
61.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 15 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
57.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 1 yd to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+25
58.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 25 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
53.9%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+12
53.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 12 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
53.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Gregory Hogan) to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+17
36.0%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 17 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 42%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
47.0%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+6
43.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Demarcus Godfrey for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
45.4%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Mark MichaudSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
41.9%
Matt Flynn punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:4557% → 60%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+14
42.6%
Jason Huntley run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
41.7%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+7
41.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
41.3%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
41.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Josh AganonSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+8
43.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+5
43.0%
Theisler, Payton punt 38 yards to the GS25, Campbell, Myles return to the GS25 (Hood, Johnathan), PENALTY GS roughing the kicker (Kennedy III, Wesley) 5 yards to the NMSU42, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
39.7%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Monquavion Brinson return for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 47%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
53.2%
L.A. Ramsby run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-12
52.7%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 44 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, player disqualification (Curtis Rainey) to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 25
OWN 41
+14
46.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 14 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
46.6%
Matt Flynn punt for 25 yds, downed at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:5359% → 96%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
40.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
39.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
39.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 17 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
35.9%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-1
35.8%
Jason Huntley run for 23 yds to the GeoSo 18 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Josh Aganon) to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+4
35.8%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
35.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-3
36.0%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Logan Hunt for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+20
35.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 20 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
29.5%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+9
29.5%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
29.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
29.5%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
4.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-7
8.1%
Shai Werts sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+1
7.5%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 16
OWN 22
0
7.0%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Obe Fortune, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+15
6.5%
Shai Werts run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 14
OPP 41
-5
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:05
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-25.2
TD · Q4 14:54
Conner Cramer pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 17 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q2 4:36
Dylan Brown kickoff for 35 yds , Dexter Carter Jr. return for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com