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TXST

Texas State 7 at Louisiana 24

UL
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2017 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:27 · Marcus Ripley punt for 38 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Pregame prior+19.6Home team on offense+6.5Score differential+2.4Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:46: Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK) — TXST win probability +12.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:46: LOUISIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trev Miller) to the 50 yard line — UL win probability +4.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:39: Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley — UL win probability +5.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:30: Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for no gain to the TexSt 17 — UL win probability +6.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:03: Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 8 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +6.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:50TXST 4th & 4 at UL 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:12TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:50UL 4th & 8 at UL 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:38TXST 4th & 1 at UL 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−1.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:45UL 4th & 8 at UL 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:27TXST 4th & 2 at UL 38, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−1.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:59UL 4th & 4 at UL 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:19UL 4th & 2 at TXST 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:20TXST 4th & 23 at TXST 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:00UL 4th & 3 at TXST 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:07UL 4th & 7 at UL 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:05UL 4th & 3 at TXST 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.8%−0.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−8.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:37TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:37TXST 4th & 15 at UL 40, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:56UL 4th & 2 at UL 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:28UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:48UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:46TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:03UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:0621% → 22%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah RogersSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
78.6%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
78.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 12 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
78.4%
Williams, Damian pass incomplete to King, Elijah, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE offside (Booker, Tra'Vontae) 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+1
78.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
78.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
77.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Chris FrenchSimilar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
77.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:0178% → 79%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
78.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 13 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+50
78.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 50 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
78.2%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
79.2%
Trey Ragas run for 11 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0921% → 21%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
78.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 10 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
78.6%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 40 Damian Williams fumbled, forced by Bennie Higgins, recovered by LaLaf Damar'ren MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:3779% → 82%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
79.3%
Andre Nunez run for 8 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+6
79.3%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
79.3%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
79.4%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+20
79.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 20 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.6%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:2719% → 19%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.7%
Damian Williams run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
80.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
80.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-15
81.0%
Damian Williams sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 15 yards to the TexSt 21 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Damian Williams) to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 25
OWN 21
0
81.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 25
OWN 21
+7
81.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
81.5%
Marcus Ripley punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryheem Malone at the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1082% → 82%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
82.0%
Darius Hoggins run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+7
82.5%
Raymond Calais run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
82.6%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
82.6%
Darius Hoggins run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+1
82.4%
Andre Nunez run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
82.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:0718% → 18%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
82.2%
Tyler Watts run for 4 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+8
81.7%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 8 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
81.7%
Willie Jones III run for 8 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+6
81.5%
Willie Jones III run for 6 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
81.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+14
81.9%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 14 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
81.4%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+3
81.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
81.7%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
81.7%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
81.7%
Willie Jones III run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
82.0%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4884% → 83%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
83.7%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
83.8%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
83.6%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
83.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 54 yds, downed at the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:0317% → 17%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
82.8%
Willie Jones III run for 20 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
82.6%
Willie Jones III run for 20 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
82.1%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Elijah King for 7 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
82.0%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+1
82.2%
Willie Jones III run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
82.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 4:1885% → 85%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
84.5%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
84.5%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
84.3%
Dion Ray run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
84.4%
Trey Ragas run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
85.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Raynard Ford for 9 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-2
85.3%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-1
85.0%
Jordan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11INT
13 plays · 82 yds · 3:3916% → 18%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
84.5%
Thurman Morbley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
84.7%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+18
84.9%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 18 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+40
84.4%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Elijah King for 40 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
82.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-1
81.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 21 Anthony D. Taylor fumbled, recovered by TexSt Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+14
82.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+4
80.9%
Taylor, Anthony D. rush for 1 yard to the ULLAFAYTTE6, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE offside (Davis, Jordan) 4 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
81.8%
Willie Jones III sacked by Taboris Lee for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
81.7%
Hutch White run for no gain to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+10
82.5%
Willie Jones III pass intercepted Tracy Walker return for 10 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:4088% → 87%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
87.5%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+1
87.1%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:3088% → 88%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.5%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Michael JacquetSimilar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
87.5%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
87.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Chase Rogers for 6 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
88.3%
Andre Nunez sacked by Jordan Mittie for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+18
88.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 18 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
88.5%
Andre Nunez run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
88.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-1
88.5%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
88.0%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:4013% → 11%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
87.0%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 11
OWN 32
-9
87.8%
Willie Jones III sacked by Taboris Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 20
OWN 23
-3
88.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 23
OWN 20
+5
88.6%
Marcus Ripley punt for 51 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for 5 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1089% → 90%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
89.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 10 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
90.2%
Andre Nunez sacked by Hal Vinson for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+2
89.9%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+7
90.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 7 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
90.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:0211% → 22%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
88.6%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 6 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+6
88.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 6 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+49
88.7%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 49 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
85.9%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 5 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+20
86.2%
Willie Jones III run for 20 yds to the LaLaf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
86.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
85.9%
Taylor, Anthony D. rush for no gain to the ULLAFAYTTE1, PENALTY TEXSTATE 12 men on the field 0 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
78.1%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trev Miller) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:3282% → 82%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jordan WrightSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
80.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 16 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.6%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
83.0%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+3
83.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Darius Hoggins for 3 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
82.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
78.7%
Willie Jones III sacked by Chaiziere Malbrue for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 17 Willie Jones III fumbled, forced by Chaiziere Malbrue, recovered by LaLaf Chaiziere Malbrue , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2586% → 87%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
85.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for no gain to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
87.0%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the TexSt 16Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+6
86.3%
Andre Nunez run for 6 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
86.8%
Stevie Artigue 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:5114% → 10%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
86.5%
Willie Jones III run for 4 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-2
86.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+10
87.6%
Jones III, Willie pass incomplete, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference (Mitchell, Damar'ren) 10 yards to the TEXSTATE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
85.1%
Willie Jones III sacked by Trev Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
86.0%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
88.8%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 11
OWN 38
+3
89.6%
Marcus Ripley punt for 48 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for 3 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:5789% → 97%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
89.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 11 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
89.4%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+9
89.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 9 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
89.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 29 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
90.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 18 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
91.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
97.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 8 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:013% → 3%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.6%
Anthony Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+24
96.7%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
50
-4
96.4%
Anthony Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+6
96.8%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 6 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+13
96.6%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 13 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.2%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
96.2%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-5
96.7%
Damian Williams sacked by Chaiziere Malbrue for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
97.1%
Marcus Ripley punt for 39 yds, downed at the LaLaf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 5:2498% → 99%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
97.6%
Andre Nunez run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
97.8%
Darius Hoggins run for no gain to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+10
97.9%
Darius Hoggins run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
98.2%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
98.2%
Darius Hoggins run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+12
98.3%
Darius Hoggins run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
98.5%
Darius Hoggins run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
98.6%
Darius Hoggins run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+1
98.9%
Andre Nunez run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
98.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:332% → 2%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
Anthony Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.1%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
98.3%
Anthony Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:46
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)
-12.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:30
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for no gain to the TexSt 17
+6.8
TD · Q4 10:03
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 8 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com