Try the model
USA

South Alabama 19 at Troy 8

TROY
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2017 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:25 · Corliss Waitman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+36.5Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:27: Malik Stanley 14 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick) — USA win probability +18.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:55: Denzel Foster run for no gain to the SAlab 1 — USA win probability +7.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. SACK · Q3 1:15: Dallas Davis sacked by Trevon Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 11 — USA win probability +5.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:16: Brandon Silvers 1 Yd Run (John Johnson Run for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +12.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:16: Bratcher Underwood on-side kick recovered by SOUTH ALABAMA at the Troy 48 — USA win probability +5.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 13:16USA 4th & 12 at USA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17TROY 4th & 1 at USA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:25USA 4th & 23 at USA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:34TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:27USA 4th & 16 at USA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:40TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:12USA 4th & 6 at USA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:06USA 4th & 11 at USA 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:32TROY 4th & 11 at USA 32, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:24USA 4th & 11 at USA 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:46USA 4th & 11 at USA 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00TROY 4th & 1 at USA 10, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%−2.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−10.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:31TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 30, down 9
    Close callPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:07TROY 4th & 6 at USA 46, down 16
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−2.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:46USA 4th & 13 at USA 11, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−4.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:27USA 4th & 7 at TROY 30, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:47TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 12, down 19
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:38USA 4th & 4 at TROY 19, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−4.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:30USA 4th & 1 at TROY 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%−2.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−2.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:01TROY 4th & 10 at USA 13, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:10USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:27USA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:16TROY Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3610% → 10%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
89.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
89.8%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Alexander) to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
89.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Maaseiah FrancisSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+6
89.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 49 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 6 yds to the Troy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3890% → 89%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
89.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+12
89.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 12 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
89.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 8 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+6
89.5%
Jamarius Henderson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
89.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
89.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+8
89.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
89.0%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the SAlab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:4111% → 12%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
88.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 11 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
88.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 17
OWN 26
-3
88.3%
Cole Garvin sacked by Jamal Stadom for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 20
OWN 23
-3
88.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 23
OWN 20
0
88.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:2788% → 87%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
87.9%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
87.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
87.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+4
87.3%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 51 yds , Sam Harris returns for 4 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5613% → 13%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
87.5%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 19Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-10
87.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SAlab 9Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 20
OWN 9
0
87.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+4
87.4%
Deonta Moore run for 4 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 16
OWN 13
+16
87.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 57 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 16 yds to the Troy 46 Marcus Jones fumbled, recovered by SAlab Collier SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:0614% → 17%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+37
86.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 37 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
85.8%
Garvin, Cole pass incomplete to Way, Jamarius, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Dunlap, Terence) 7 yards to the TROY2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUTHALA.Similar
Q1 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the Troy 1Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.2%
Xavier Johnson 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1084% → 83%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
84.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-2
83.9%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
83.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
82.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 32 yds, downed at the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1718% → 18%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
82.4%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-1
81.6%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
81.4%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
81.8%
Corliss Waitman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:1182% → 82%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
81.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 7 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
82.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+10
81.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 10 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
81.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 25 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
82.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
81.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 10 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
81.9%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 42 Jordan Chunn fumbled, forced by Tyree Turner, recovered by SAlab Zach BefortSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2321% → 22%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
78.8%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
78.5%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted Jamal Stadom return for 2 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11INT
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:2181% → 81%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
80.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 16 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
81.2%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Jeremy Reaves return for no gain to the SAlab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1721% → 21%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
79.1%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-1
78.8%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 11
OWN 2
0
78.7%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 11
OWN 2
+16
78.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 45 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 16 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1880% → 75%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
79.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 6 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-10
79.4%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 14
OPP 35
-8
78.0%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Rocel McWilliams for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 22
OPP 43
+11
75.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 11 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 11
OPP 32
0
74.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:5527% → 27%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
73.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 11 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
71.9%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+2
72.7%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
72.0%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
72.8%
Corliss Waitman punt for 54 yds , Marcus Jones returns for no gain to the Troy 4 TROY Penalty, Illegal Block (2 Yards) to the Troy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15SF
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:0072% → 69%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
72.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 3
-2
71.6%
Chunn, Jordan rush for 12 yards to the TROY15, PENALTY TROY holding 2 yards to the TROY1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 11
OWN 1
-1
69.3%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1732% → 33%
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
68.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jahmmir Taylor for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-16
67.8%
Dallas Davis sacked by Antione Barker for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 44 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 22
OWN 29
+11
69.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Denzel Foster for 11 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+6
67.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 52 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 6 yds to the Troy 14 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 61 yds · 2:4067% → 62%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
66.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-8
66.3%
Brandon Silvers sacked by TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+20
63.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 20 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
66.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+15
65.5%
Silvers, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY SOUTHALA pass interference 15 yards to the SOUTHALA38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
66.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 19 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
66.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
66.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+7
64.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 7 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+27
62.2%
Evan Legassey 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1764% → 61%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
63.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
62.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+9
61.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 9 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
61.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Sam Harris at the SAlab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:5541% → 70%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
59.4%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
58.2%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+8
57.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 8 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
56.1%
Denzel Foster run for 6 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
54.9%
Denzel Foster run for 6 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
54.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
53.7%
Deonta Moore run for 4 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+17
53.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 17 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
50.1%
Tra Minter run for 9 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-5
49.1%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
30.2%
Malik Stanley 14 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:1436% → 33%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
35.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Clark QuisenberrySimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
35.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 3 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
32.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 12 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
33.3%
Silvers, Brandon pass incomplete to Douglas, Deondre, PENALTY SOUTHALA pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
50
0
35.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Clark QuisenberrySimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
50
+4
34.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 4 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
33.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
33.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 45 yds, downed at the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 10 yds · 4:0975% → 85%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
25.5%
Denzel Foster run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+6
24.6%
Denzel Foster run for 6 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+7
23.5%
Denzel Foster run for 7 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
21.1%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+3
20.3%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 19
-8
15.2%
Dallas Davis sacked by Trevon Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 11Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 13
OWN 11
-2
15.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 37 yds , Marcus Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line Marcus Jones fumbled, recovered by SAlab Andrew Zink , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1388% → 93%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
50
+17
12.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Malik Stanley for 17 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
11.3%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
11.5%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+7
11.3%
Dallas Davis run for 7 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
6.6%
Gavin Patterson 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:589% → 8%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
9.4%
Jamarius Henderson run for 3 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+5
8.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 2
OWN 12
0
8.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
8.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 49 yds, downed at the SAlab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:5995% → 97%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
4.6%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+49
4.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tra Minter for 49 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
3.6%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
3.5%
Denzel Foster run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
3.4%
Dallas Davis run for 7 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 4
OPP 19
-15
3.3%
Dallas Davis sacked by Andre Flakes for a loss of 15 yards to the Troy 19 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Troy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:076% → 18%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
6.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 4 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
6.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 22 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
6.4%
Silvers, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY SOUTHALA pass interference 15 yards to the SOUTHALA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
6.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
6.5%
Josh Anderson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+2
6.8%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
6.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+29
5.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 29 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.6%
Josh Anderson run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.7%
Brandon Silvers 1 Yd Run (John Johnson Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26FUMBLE
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3591% → 92%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
9.4%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
8.8%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
8.4%
Denzel Foster run for 5 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-2
8.1%
Denzel Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 41 Denzel Foster fumbled, recovered by SAlab Denzel FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 1:259% → 6%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
9.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
8.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Josh AndersonSimilar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+10
8.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 10 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
8.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 18 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
8.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+18
8.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 18 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
8.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
8.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
7.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
6.0%
Evan Legassey 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0795% → 96%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
5.4%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
5.4%
Dallas Davis run for 8 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
5.1%
Denzel Foster run for 5 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 12
OWN 31
-3
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:27
Malik Stanley 14 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)
-18.9
TD · Q4 6:16
Brandon Silvers 1 Yd Run (John Johnson Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+12.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:55
Denzel Foster run for no gain to the SAlab 1
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com