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NMSU

New Mexico State 31 at App State 45

APP
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:32 · TEAM punt for a loss of 6 yards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+11.5Home team on offense−1.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:44: Larry Rose III 1 Yd Run (Dylan Brown Kick) — NMSU win probability +27.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:31: Taylor Lamb run for 38 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +28.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:27: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 61 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +32.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:13: Terrence Upshaw run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +28.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:45: Malik Williams pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 27 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +24.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:55NMSU 4th & 15 at APP 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:55APP 4th & 6 at APP 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:36APP 4th & 8 at NMSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:59APP 4th & 6 at NMSU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 6 at APP 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53APP 4th & 13 at APP 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:50NMSU 4th & 18 at APP 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:55NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:59APP 4th & 6 at APP 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:37NMSU 4th & 9 at APP 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−8.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:25APP 4th & 2 at APP 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:32NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:35APP 4th & 12 at APP 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−2.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:45NMSU 4th & 6 at APP 26, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−8.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:40NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:15APP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:01APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:46NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:44NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:31APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:27NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:13APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−1.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:45APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−1.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:12APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -17 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
81.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for a loss of 6 yards Ike Lewis fumbled, forced by Terrill Hanks, recovered by NMxSt Lui Fa'amasinoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:4019% → 19%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
80.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
80.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 7 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 14:35
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
80.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
80.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
80.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 19Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
80.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 14:35
3RD & 15
OPP 19
0
81.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose III, broken up by Desmond FranklinSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+35
80.6%
Dylan Brown 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
80.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 2 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
80.5%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
80.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+37
80.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 40 yds , Larry Rose III returns for 37 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:5720% → 22%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
79.8%
Huntley, Jason rush for 17 yards to the APP10 (Howard,A.J.), PENALTY APP holding (Malone,Madison) 1 yards to the APP26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 9
OPP 26
+8
79.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 8 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+2
79.8%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
79.8%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 2
OPP 8
-2
79.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 10Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+6
79.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:5978% → 77%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
78.2%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+45
78.2%
Jalin Moore run for 45 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
78.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-5
78.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
78.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+4
78.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
76.6%
Michael Rubino 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6INT
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
76.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+11
76.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 11 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
75.8%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
75.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 2
50
-5
75.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+12
75.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 12 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
75.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 15 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+40
75.6%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Tae Hayes return for 52 yds to the NMxSt 0 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jason Huntley) to the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1876% → 76%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
75.8%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
75.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malik Williams for 2 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
75.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
75.9%
Michael Rubino 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:5925% → 26%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
75.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
75.7%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete to Clark, OJ, PENALTY APP targeting (Howard,A.J.) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
50
+7
74.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 7 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-5
74.4%
Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Hogan, Gregory for 14 yards to the APP29, out-of-bounds (Frizzell,Tim), PENALTY NMSU illegal block (Lottie, Izaiah) 5 yards to the APP48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
74.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 7 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
74.5%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-5
74.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
74.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
74.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
73.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
73.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 38 yds , Larry Rose III returns for no gain to the NMxSt 17 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
73.4%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Clifton Duck return for 15 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:1776% → 78%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
75.6%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
75.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
75.6%
Jalin Moore run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.3%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
77.0%
Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Dan, Drew for 10 yards to the NMSU36 (Duck,Clifton), PENALTY NMSU illegal touching (Dan, Drew) 0 yards to the NMSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
77.5%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Tae Hayes return for 6 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:2978% → 82%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
78.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
82.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
80.7%
Larry Rose III run for 13 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
80.1%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
80.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 3 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+3
80.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
80.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
80.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-11
80.3%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Clifton Duck for a loss of 11 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 18
OPP 47
+1
81.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 1 yd to the AppSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15INT
7 plays · 57 yds · 0:0082% → 83%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
81.5%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 8Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+29
81.4%
Jalin Moore run for 29 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
82.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 10 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
82.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+11
82.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
82.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+3
82.7%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Jaden Wright return for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:1018% → 29%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
82.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
82.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 13 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
81.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
81.3%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-13
80.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Eric Boggs for a loss of 13 yards to the NMxSt 35 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Tyler Rogers) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+48
82.2%
Jason Huntley run for 48 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
79.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
79.8%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+12
80.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds Johnathan Boone fumbled, forced by Desmond Franklin, recovered by NMxSt Johnathan Boone for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
79.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 2Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
74.9%
Jalin Moore run for 11 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 20Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
74.9%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
73.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-7
74.0%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Rashaad Townes for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 16 Tyler Rogers fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Tyler Rogers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 16
0
75.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for no gain to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 12
OWN 16
+7
75.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 46 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 7 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
76.3%
Upshaw,T. rush for no gain to the APP45 (Bradley, Stody;Herrington, D.), PENALTY APP holding (Johnson,Victor) 10 yards to the APP35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 20
OWN 35
0
74.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+4
74.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malik Williams for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+10
73.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 10 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
74.0%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:2727% → 36%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
72.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 33 yds to the APPALCHAN 47 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jason Huntley) to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
70.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 9 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-2
69.4%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 3
50
0
70.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 3
50
+5
71.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Anthony Flory) to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
69.7%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+30
69.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 30 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
68.4%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
68.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 3 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-5
69.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Dezmand Candelarie) to the AppSt 14Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
70.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
63.9%
Dylan Brown 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
68.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
68.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 7 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
70.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
68.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 36 yds, downed at the NMxSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0036% → 33%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
63.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+5
64.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+6
65.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
63.3%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-5
62.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Rashaad Townes for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
65.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Conner CramerSimilar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
66.8%
TEAM punt for a loss of 6 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
72.0%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
72.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+1
70.7%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Jaden Wright return for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:5940% → 72%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
60.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+15
57.8%
Jason Huntley run for 15 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
57.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+18
57.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 18 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
55.1%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+3
55.1%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
53.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 7 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
0
53.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+7
55.8%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.4%
Larry Rose III 1 Yd Run (Dylan Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 35%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
41.3%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
39.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
37.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
35.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 33 yds, downed at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26INT
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:0068% → 71%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
32.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
31.1%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
29.2%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
29.1%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Tae Hayes return for no gain to the AppSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:4938% → 68%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
38.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+13
39.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 13 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
67.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 38 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:5942% → 77%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
57.7%
Larry Rose III run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
55.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+61
23.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 61 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29TD
10 plays · 0 yds · 2:0932% → 48%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+41
32.0%
Jalin Moore run for 41 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
39.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Victor Johnson) to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+6
37.8%
Jalin Moore run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
39.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Stody BradleySimilar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+15
36.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 15 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
39.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
67.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
47.5%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+39
47.6%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Clifton Duck return for 39 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 30TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:4167% → 92%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
67.3%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
92.0%
Malik Williams pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 27 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31DOWNS
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:0014% → 16%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
86.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 45 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
80.8%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
80.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
82.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Drew Dan, broken up by Rashaad TownesSimilar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+5
84.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 5 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 32TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:1492% → 98%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
91.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the AppSt 21Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+19
91.8%
Jalin Moore run for 19 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
92.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
93.0%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
92.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Noah Hannon) to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
94.9%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
94.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Noah Hannon) to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+56
98.2%
Jalin Moore run for 56 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 33INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
97.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 22 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 10 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Clifton Duck return for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 34END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 12
OWN 22
-2
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:27
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 61 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-32.2
TD · Q4 10:31
Taylor Lamb run for 38 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
+28.2
TD · Q4 7:13
Terrence Upshaw run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
+28.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com