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ULM

UL Monroe 45 at Texas State 27

TXST
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:05 · Harrison Heim punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense−8.6Pregame prior−8.2Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:25: Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 34 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +8.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:32: Caleb Evans run for 10 yds for a TD, (Caleb Evans intercepted ) — ULM win probability +8.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:33: Craig Ford 35 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +6.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:29: Damian Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK) — TXST win probability +12.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:48: Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 67 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +12.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 3:16ULM 4th & 7 at TXST 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−2.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:41TXST 4th & 6 at ULM 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:25TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, down 6
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:35ULM 4th & 5 at TXST 19, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:10TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 49, down 6
    Close callPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:41ULM 4th & 13 at ULM 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:56TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:05ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:32TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 26, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:42TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:39ULM 4th & 1 at TXST 16, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−1.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−6.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:59ULM 4th & 1 at TXST 4, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−4.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:54TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:38ULM 4th & 4 at TXST 34, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:21ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:44ULM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:57TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:30TXST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:25ULM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:29TXST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:48ULM Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3968% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.9%
RJ Turner run for 9 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
31.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+29
31.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 29 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
31.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+18
31.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 18 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
31.9%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
31.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 2 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+20
31.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 20 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:1232% → 35%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
32.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+34
32.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 34 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
32.4%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 26 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
32.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 5 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
32.5%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
32.4%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
32.5%
Elijah King run for 6 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.3%
Damian Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Sherman intercepted )Similar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
34.5%
Caleb Tucker return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:1967% → 68%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+64
33.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 64 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.7%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:4132% → 36%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
32.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 18 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
32.4%
Damian Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+20
32.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Hutch White for 20 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
32.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Nic Foster) to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+4
32.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 4 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+16
32.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 16 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
32.9%
Jeremiah Haydel run for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
35.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 25 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:3666% → 67%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
34.5%
Ben Luckett run for 8 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+7
34.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 7 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
34.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Devin Jackson Jr.) to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+4
34.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ben Luckett for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+5
34.4%
Ben Luckett run for 5 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+35
34.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 35 yds to the TEXSTATE 24 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
33.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 14 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
33.6%
Duke Carter IV run for 3 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
33.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q1 6:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
33.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Ben Luckett, broken up by Gabe LoydSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
33.4%
Craig Ford 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:4034% → 40%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
34.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 10 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
34.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
34.4%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+13
34.9%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 13 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
35.6%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
35.5%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+47
39.5%
Anthony D. Taylor 47 Yd pass from Hutch White (Foster Hilborn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3061% → 60%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.2%
Marcus Green run for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
39.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+19
40.1%
Harrison Heim punt for 45 yds , Hutch White returns for 19 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
40.8%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 22 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
41.6%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+1
41.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
41.0%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Robert Brown Jr.Similar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 6
OPP 31
0
39.9%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:2660% → 69%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
40.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 8 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+4
39.1%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
39.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 6 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
38.7%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
38.8%
Kayin White run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian Williams, broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
38.7%
Kayin White run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+13
39.6%
Caleb Evans run for 13 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
31.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 34 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
34.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Elijah King) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
34.0%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+13
33.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Hutch White for 13 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
34.6%
Anthony J. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
33.6%
Marcus Ripley punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:0269% → 68%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
31.2%
Kayin White run for 7 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
30.4%
Kayin White run for 2 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+8
30.6%
Kayin White run for 8 yds to the TexSt 48 Kayin White fumbled, forced by Frankie Griffin, recovered by LaMon Kayin White for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
30.1%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+21
30.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 21 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
29.8%
Ben Luckett run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
29.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
30.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
31.9%
Craig Ford 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:2535% → 33%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
34.5%
Hutch White run for 8 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
35.8%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
34.9%
Damian Williams run for 13 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
36.3%
Damian Williams sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+6
34.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+7
34.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony J. Taylor for 7 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
33.0%
Marcus Ripley punt for 36 yds, downed at the LaMon 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0069% → 70%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
31.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 8 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+3
30.4%
Duke Carter IV run for 3 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
33.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
31.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
30.7%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
30.4%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-7
30.2%
Caleb Evans sacked by Easy Anyama for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 14:41
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+3
33.4%
Harrison Heim punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 21 , Hutch White returns for 3 yds to the TexSt 35 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Dila Rosemond) to the TexSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4733% → 30%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
33.4%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 17 Robert Brown Jr.Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 14
OWN 17
0
31.2%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by JJ DallasSimilar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+6
30.2%
Damian Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
29.6%
Marcus Ripley punt for 49 yds, downed at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
29.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 6 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+11
29.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 11 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
28.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
28.6%
Kayin White run for 3 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
28.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Darius RodrigueSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
30.0%
Harrison Heim punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
31.5%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
31.6%
Jaylin Nelson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+6
30.5%
Damian Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSt 13 Damian Williams fumbled, recovered by LaMon Wesley Thompson , return for 6 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:4075% → 83%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
25.5%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
17.4%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds for a TD, (Caleb Evans intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
21.3%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
20.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony J. Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+29
20.1%
Marcus Ripley punt for 35 yds , Marcus Green returns for 29 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21FG
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:5383% → 90%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
16.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 11 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
16.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 7 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
16.4%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+4
16.8%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
16.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
16.4%
Evans, Caleb rush over left end for 5 yards to the TXST1 (Mittie,Jordan;Dimery,Preston), PENALTY ULM illegal block (Ramsey, Noah) 15 yards to the TXST21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+3
16.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 3 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
0
17.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+35
10.5%
Craig Ford 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0413% → 27%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
13.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+15
14.1%
Williams, Damian deep out pass incomplete to King,Elijah, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Offray, Juwan) 15 yards to the ULM44, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
14.5%
Tyler Watts run for 24 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
15.3%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
14.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Anthony J. Taylor, broken up by Chase DaySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+7
14.1%
Williams, Damian SEAM ROUTE pass incomplete to King,Elijah (Offray, Juwan), PENALTY ULM pass interference (Offray, Juwan) 7 yards to the ULM12, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
14.9%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
27.1%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4180% → 92%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.0%
Ben Luckett run for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+67
7.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 67 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
11.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah Rogers for 8 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
12.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 4 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
11.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Dennis Johnson Jr., broken up by Juwan OffraySimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
11.6%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-5
11.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jacob Rowland) to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
11.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 12
OWN 32
+46
11.3%
Marcus Ripley punt for 46 yds , Marcus Green returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25FG
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:4093% → 98%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
6.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 10 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
6.6%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+20
6.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 20 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
6.0%
Ben Luckett run for 6 yds to the LaMon 43 UL MONROE Penalty, illegal block (Roland Jenkins) to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 14
OWN 47
+11
6.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 11 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
5.8%
Duke Carter IV run for no gain to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+17
6.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 17 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
5.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
6.0%
Duke Carter IV run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+1
5.8%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+5
7.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, roughing the kicker (5 Yards) to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
6.6%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
3.5%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
3.5%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
2.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by A.J. KrawczykSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+4
3.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (Sami Awad) to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 4:59
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+20
1.6%
Craig Ford 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
1.9%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
1.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Dennis Johnson Jr., broken up by JJ DallasSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-10
1.9%
Damian Williams sacked by Jarell Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
1.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:5999% → 99%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
1.4%
Kayin White run for 18 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
1.3%
Kayin White run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+3
1.4%
Kayin White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+2
1.4%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+2
0.9%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
1.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
1.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Dennis Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+1
1.4%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:48
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 67 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q4 14:29
Damian Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q2 9:25
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 34 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com