Try the model
TROY

Troy 27 at New Mexico State 24

NMSU
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:49 · Tyler Sumpter punt for 46 yds , Larry Rose III returns for no gain to the NMxSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior−4.6Home team on offense−8.3Score differential−4.2Garbage-time factor−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:27: Jamarius Henderson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bratcher Underwood KICK) — TROY win probability +10.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:53: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 46 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown PAT MISSED) — NMSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:44: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 0:17: Brandon Silvers run for 32 yds for a TD, (Bratcher Underwood KICK) — TROY win probability +12.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:49: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rogers pass to Jaleel Scott for Two-Point Conversion) — NMSU win probability +20.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 13, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48NMSU 4th & 5 at TROY 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:27NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:40TROY 4th & 11 at NMSU 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:40NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:21TROY 4th & 5 at NMSU 22, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:33NMSU 4th & 26 at NMSU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02TROY 4th & 16 at NMSU 40, up 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    74.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:53TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:17TROY 4th & 1 at NMSU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−5.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 34, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:15TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:49TROY 4th & 20 at TROY 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−9.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:11NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 45, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:38TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:27TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:27TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:53NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:44NMSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:17TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:49NMSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
24.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+4
24.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 4 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+1
24.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 1 yd to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 13
+10
24.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 47 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 3:2276% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+10
24.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
24.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+4
24.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
24.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+21
24.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 21 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
24.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 9 yds for a TD, (Bratcher Underwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:5025% → 27%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
24.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 8 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
24.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+18
24.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xander Yarberough for 18 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
25.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+2
25.1%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+23
25.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 23 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
25.3%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
25.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-3
25.3%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+8
25.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
27.3%
Dylan Brown 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:1473% → 75%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
27.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Jared PhippsSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+20
27.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 20 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
26.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 7
50
+15
26.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 15 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
26.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
26.3%
Jamarius Henderson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-5
26.5%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+30
26.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 30 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bratcher Underwood PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.1%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
25.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
25.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Kris WeatherspoonSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
25.3%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+5
24.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+3
24.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 39 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 3 yds to the Troy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6MISSED FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 5:2775% → 74%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
25.4%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
25.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Josh AndersonSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+14
25.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 14 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
24.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
24.8%
Josh Anderson run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
24.7%
Josh Anderson run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
24.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
-4
24.9%
Silvers, B. rush for 6 yards to the NMSU15 (Demby, Malik), PENALTY TROY holding 4 yards to the NMSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+7
25.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 7 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-6
25.4%
TROY Penalty, false start (-6 Yards) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+15
26.1%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Douglas, D. (Lomax, Shamad), PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Lomax, Shamad) 15 yards to the NMSU9, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
25.2%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
25.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 3 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
25.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Andre Flakes, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+27
25.9%
Bratcher Underwood 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
25.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 19 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
25.7%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-4
26.3%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
25.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
25.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:5674% → 76%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
26.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 9 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+10
25.8%
Jamarius Henderson run for 10 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
25.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 11 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
25.3%
Josh Anderson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+17
25.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 17 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
25.1%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
25.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan Chunn, broken up by Dalton HerringtonSimilar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+1
23.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 5
OPP 22
0
23.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
23.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Kamryn MeltonSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
23.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 4 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+14
23.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 14 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
24.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
25.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Drew Dan, broken up by Blace BrownSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-24
24.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 26
OWN 24
0
22.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10DOWNS
16 plays · 19 yds · 2:5477% → 78%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
23.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
23.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
22.9%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Drew Dan and Dalton Herrington for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+7
22.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 7 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+12
22.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 12 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-11
21.2%
Silvers, B. pass complete to Thompson, E. for 8 yards to the NMSU26 (Lomax, Shamad;Laforce, Ron), PENALTY TROY personal foul 11 yards to the NMSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 21
OPP 45
0
21.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 21
OPP 45
-5
21.8%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 26
50
+9
22.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 17
OPP 41
-5
22.8%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 22
OPP 46
+6
22.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
22.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Jared PhippsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:2577% → 88%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+22
23.2%
Henderson, J. rush for 7 yards to the TROY42 (Owens, DeMarcus;Harrington, D.), PENALTY NMSU personal foul 22 yards to the NMSU43, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
22.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
22.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
21.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+21
22.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.1%
Jamarius Henderson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bratcher Underwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:2814% → 21%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
14.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
14.0%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
15.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
15.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 10 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
15.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
15.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+46
20.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 46 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
20.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 11 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
19.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
19.2%
Jamarius Henderson run for 1 yd to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
19.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan ChunnSimilar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+3
20.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 39 yds , Larry Rose III returns for 3 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:1020% → 38%
Q3 7:54
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
20.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 7 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
20.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 14 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
21.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Kris WeatherspoonSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
21.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xander YarberoughSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
22.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 9 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+4
23.2%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
23.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 8 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+15
23.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 15 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2769% → 84%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.6%
Jamarius Henderson run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
29.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 18 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
28.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
28.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel Thompson, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+11
29.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 11 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
27.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-4
27.7%
Jamarius Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+11
29.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 11 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+32
16.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 32 yds for a TD, (Bratcher Underwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1717% → 16%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
16.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
15.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
16.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
16.4%
John Johnson run for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
16.2%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
16.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan ChunnSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
17.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 55 yds , Larry Rose III returns for no gain to the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:0815% → 41%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
15.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xander YarberoughSimilar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+9
15.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+11
15.0%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
16.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 23 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+32
18.5%
Larry Rose III run for 32 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
20.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 4 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
20.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the Troy 9Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
41.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rogers pass to Jaleel Scott for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
30.9%
Silvers, B. pass complete to Thompson, E. for 9 yards to the TROY34 (Corley, Cassius), PENALTY TROY holding 10 yards to the TROY15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-5
31.3%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+5
31.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 5 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
32.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
34.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 46 yds , Larry Rose III returns for no gain to the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0041% → 37%
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
40.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+3
36.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
37.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 52 yds, downed at the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21END OF GAME
16 plays · 56 yds · 5:2371% → 93%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
28.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 11 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
28.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-10
28.0%
Smith, B.J. rush for 2 yards to the TROY21 (Lopez, Roy;Reese, Jassavia), PENALTY TROY holding 10 yards to the TROY9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+11
29.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 11 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+17
24.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 17 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
20.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
18.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 7 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
16.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
14.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
14.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
7.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
7.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:49
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rogers pass to Jaleel Scott for Two-Point Conversion)
+20.8
TD · Q3 3:44
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
+15.1
TD · Q3 0:17
Brandon Silvers run for 32 yds for a TD, (Bratcher Underwood KICK)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com