Try the model
APP

App State 20 at Texas State 13

TXST
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 6 yds to the AppSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:29: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +9.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 46%).
  2. TD · Q3 2:08: Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +11.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:18: James Sherman 38 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +7.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:48: Michael Rubino 46 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +7.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:01: Terrence Upshaw run for 9 yds to the TexSt 5 — APP win probability +10.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:36APP 4th & 6 at APP 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:38TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:50APP 4th & 14 at APP 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:24APP 4th & 4 at APP 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:44APP 4th & 15 at APP 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:13TXST 4th & 11 at APP 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:13APP 4th & 9 at APP 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:19TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 29, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:50APP 4th & 10 at TXST 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−8.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:23TXST 4th & 13 at APP 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−9.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:48APP 4th & 14 at TXST 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−3.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−11.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:33TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:29APP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:08APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.9%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.9%
Mason Hays run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
7.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
7.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 6 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
7.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
8.4%
Jalin Moore run for 6 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
8.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-2
8.3%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 39 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+2
8.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 49 yds , Hutch White returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
8.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
8.7%
Damian Williams run for 8 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+3
8.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
8.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-8
8.8%
Damian Williams sacked by Anthony Flory for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
8.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 6 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
8.7%
Marcus Ripley punt for 38 yds, downed at the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
10.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+17
10.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 17 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
10.0%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 14
OWN 42
0
10.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 14
OWN 42
0
10.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
10.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:2711% → 14%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
11.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 20 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
11.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 8 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
11.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
13.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Mason Hays for 49 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0387% → 86%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
13.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 7 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-10
13.0%
Lamb,Taylor rush over right end for 11 yards to the APP48, out-of-bounds (Vinson,Hal), PENALTY APP holding (Johnson,Victor) 10 yards to the APP27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+2
14.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+7
14.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 7 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
14.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:0315% → 17%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
15.4%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-8
15.4%
Damian Williams sacked by Myquon Stout and Tae Hayes for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+14
15.1%
Damian Williams run for 14 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
15.5%
Damian Williams sacked by Caleb Fuller for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 29 Damian Williams fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+7
15.3%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
17.8%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+5
17.4%
Marcus Ripley punt for 45 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 5 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
18.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
18.2%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-7
18.5%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Gabe Loyd and Frankie Griffin for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
18.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds , Hutch White returns for no gain to the TexSt 43 Hutch White fumbled, recovered by TexSt Hutch WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:2421% → 27%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
21.0%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
20.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 1 yd to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
20.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 15 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
21.2%
Anthony J. Taylor run for no gain to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
21.2%
Jeremiah Haydel run for 9 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+23
20.9%
Damian Williams run for 13 yds to the AppSt 19 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the AppSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
21.4%
Anthony J. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 11Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
21.4%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the AppSt 11Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
20.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
26.6%
James Sherman 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
27.0%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
27.2%
Malik Williams run for no gain to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
27.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
28.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0129% → 31%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
29.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
29.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
28.7%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
30.5%
Marcus Ripley punt for 45 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for no gain to the AppSt 29 Thomas Hennigan fumbled, recovered by AppSt Thomas HenniganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 3:4167% → 74%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
32.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
33.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 3 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-5
33.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+13
34.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 13 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
31.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 21 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
30.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
30.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Dante JonesSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+11
31.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
29.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete, broken up by Caeveon PattonSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+22
29.7%
Jalin Moore run for 12 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (A.J. Krawczyk) to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
33.5%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
33.5%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the TexSt 6Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
28.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:0373% → 75%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
26.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malik Williams for 20 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
26.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
25.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malik Williams for 23 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
25.1%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 9Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 0
OPP 9
-10
24.5%
Lamb,Taylor rush over right end for 3 yards to the TXST6 (London II, Bryan), PENALTY APP holding 10 yards to the TXST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 0
OPP 19
0
24.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Zy LetmanSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 0
OPP 19
+9
25.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalin Moore for 9 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
25.3%
Michael Rubino 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:2729% → 33%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
28.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 22 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
31.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
31.2%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+14
30.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Mason Hays for 14 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
32.5%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+14
32.5%
Damian Williams run for 14 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
32.6%
Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-5
32.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete TEXAS STATE Penalty, intentional grounding (Damian Williams) to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
29.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+33
33.3%
James Sherman 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:1569% → 85%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
30.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
30.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+7
29.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
28.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Terrence UpshawSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
29.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Zy LetmanSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+28
30.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malik Williams for 28 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
26.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malik Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+15
27.2%
Lamb,Taylor deep out pass incomplete to Hennigan, Thomas, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Waddy,Jashon) 15 yards to the TXST16, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
26.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 8 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+7
26.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 7 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 5:4120% → 30%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
20.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 13 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
20.6%
Mason Hays run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 15
OWN 24
0
20.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony J. Taylor for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+55
18.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 55 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
24.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 7 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
24.5%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+5
23.0%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the AppSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
24.5%
Jeremiah Haydel run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-8
24.3%
Damian Williams sacked by Tee Sims and Caleb Fuller for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 0
OPP 21
0
22.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Mason Hays, broken up by A.J. HowardSimilar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+38
29.9%
James Sherman 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:2576% → 84%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
24.3%
Lamb,Taylor sideline pass intercepted by Johnson, Stephan at the APP41, Johnson, Stephan return to the APP30 (Reed,Collin), PENALTY TXST pass interference (Johnson, Stephan) 14 yards to the APP40, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
22.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+16
22.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 16 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
21.3%
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+7
19.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for 7 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
19.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for 6 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-10
19.9%
Harrington, Daetrich rush over right end for 2 yards to the TXST17 (Vinson,Hal), PENALTY APP holding 10 yards to the TXST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
21.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
23.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
16.2%
Michael Rubino 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19INT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
19.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 1 yd to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
19.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Mason Hays for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
18.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 7 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
21.5%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
22.1%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+41
20.4%
Damian Williams pass intercepted Clifton Duck return for 41 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
9.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for 9 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+2
9.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
9.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1 Taylor Lamb fumbled, forced by A.J. Krawczyk, recovered by TexSt Frankie GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21END OF GAME
17 plays · 98 yds · 2:1117% → 22%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
16.9%
Anthony J. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
16.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+12
15.6%
Williams, Damian sideline pass incomplete to King,Elijah, PENALTY APP pass interference (Hayes,Tae) 12 yards to the TXST13, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
17.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 15 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
18.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Mason Hays for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
15.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Thurman Morbley, broken up by A.J. HowardSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+15
14.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 15 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
17.2%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
16.8%
Damian Williams run for 5 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+10
18.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 10 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
19.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Thurman Morbley, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+16
19.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Mason Hays for 16 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
25.3%
Damian Williams run for 11 yds to the AppSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
21.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony J. Taylor for 2 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
21.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 6 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-21.5
TD · Q3 2:08
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
-11
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:01
Terrence Upshaw run for 9 yds to the TexSt 5
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com