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NMSU

New Mexico State 30 at New Mexico 28

UNM
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:44 · Peyton Theisler punt for 24 yds, downed at the NMex 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense−4.2Score differential−2.3Pregame prior+12.0Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:22: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 17 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +18.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:28: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 8 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:42: Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNM win probability +7.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:09: Jay Griffin IV run for 61 yds for a TD (Tevaka Tuioti pass to Richard McQuarley for Two-Point Conversion) — UNM win probability +12.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:11: Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 19 yds for a TD Timeout NEW MEXICO ST, clock 01:11 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNM win probability +36.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 11NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 14:15NMSU 4th & 3 at UNM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:56UNM 4th & 13 at NMSU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:28NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:43UNM 4th & 23 at UNM 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:25UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:44NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:02UNM 4th & 5 at NMSU 5, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:14NMSU 4th & 5 at UNM 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:14UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:08UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:30NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 35, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 4 at UNM 43, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−3.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:28UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.7%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:35NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:02UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 13, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:26UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 41, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 29, up 25
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:42NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:11UNM 4th & 4 at NMSU 4, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%−4.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−8.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:07NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 13, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−3.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:18UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 40, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−1.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:44NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:25NMSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:22NMSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:28NMSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:42UNM Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.0%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:09UNM Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.5%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:11UNM Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.8%−6.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
65.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 42 Tyrone Owens fumbled, forced by Jacob Nwangwa, recovered by NMxSt Shamad LomaxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:1934% → 35%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
65.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
65.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-1
65.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 14:15
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+5
65.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 5 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
65.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 30 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
65.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 8 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
65.5%
Daryl Chestnut run for 3 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.4%
Richard McQuarley run for no gain to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+18
65.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Daryl Chestnut for 18 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
65.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
65.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Richard McQuarley) to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
65.6%
Daryl Chestnut run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+1
65.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
65.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 8
OPP 44
-5
65.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
65.2%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Terrill Hanks at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
64.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Josh AganonSimilar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
64.5%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
64.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
64.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
64.2%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+26
64.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 26 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
64.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
64.8%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-5
64.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, SUB (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-11
64.3%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Terrill Hanks for a loss of 11 yards to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 23
OWN 42
0
63.8%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 51 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 93 yds · 1:1137% → 41%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
63.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+13
63.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 13 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
59.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 81 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.0%
Daryl Chestnut run for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
60.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
60.0%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Chris Davis Jr.Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+40
59.8%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 45 yds, downed at the NEWMEXICO 23 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal touching (Bijon Parker) to the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1242% → 43%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
58.1%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Austin Ocasio for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 14
OWN 24
-5
58.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+9
58.4%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+9
58.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 9 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
57.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 24 yds, downed at the NMex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:2757% → 56%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
57.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 5 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-5
57.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
56.7%
Daryl Chestnut run for 5 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+8
56.7%
Daryl Chestnut run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
57.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+9
57.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
58.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+18
58.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 18 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
58.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing passer (Terrill Hanks) to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
58.4%
Romell Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
58.4%
Richard McQuarley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.6%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
56.2%
Jason Sanders 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
54.0%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
54.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
50
+4
53.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
53.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 2 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+7
53.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds OJ Clark fumbled, forced by Jermane Conyers, recovered by NMex Jake Rothschiller , return for 7 yds to the NMex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 55%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
53.3%
Daryl Chestnut run for 9 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-6
54.8%
Richard McQuarley run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 42 Richard McQuarley fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Malik DembySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:5451% → 52%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
49.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
49.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-5
49.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+18
50.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 18 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
49.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 20
OPP 36
0
49.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 20
OPP 36
0
49.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 20
OPP 36
+15
50.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 15 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
48.4%
Dylan Brown 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
48.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-10
47.7%
McQUARLEY, R. rush for 8 yards to the NM41 (Laforce, Ron;Perkins, Austin), PENALTY NM holding (BAYLOR III, Ray) 10 yards to the NM23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
46.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
46.2%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 77 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:0953% → 73%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
47.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+18
47.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 18 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
46.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (D'Angelo Ross) to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
45.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
45.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Malik Demby for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+6
45.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 6 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
45.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Austin Ocasio) to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+19
45.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 19 yds Jason Huntley fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Jaleel Scott for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
26.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 17 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
31.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
31.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
31.2%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
26.5%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+11
26.3%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
26.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason Huntley, broken up by Alex HartSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
26.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
26.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
32.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Romell Jordan for 5 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
32.9%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Ron LaForce return for no gain to the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
24.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.1%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
24.9%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
24.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 7 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
23.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
24.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
23.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
23.7%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
24.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
25.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0024% → 27%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
24.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 3 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
24.2%
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
25.1%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+7
24.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 7 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
25.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 12 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
26.2%
Daryl Chestnut run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+9
26.5%
Daryl Chestnut run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
26.6%
Daryl Chestnut run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+29
26.5%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Ron LaForce return for 29 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
18.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
19.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+15
19.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 15 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
17.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Drew DanSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
17.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Jacob GirgleSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
18.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
19.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 44 yds, downed at the NMex 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
19.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyrone Owens) to the NMex 7Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 14
OWN 7
+7
19.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 7 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
19.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-4
19.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Richard McQuarley for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 13Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
19.6%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:0986% → 98%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
13.6%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
13.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 10 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
13.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
13.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
13.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Drew Dan, broken up by Elijah LillySimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+26
13.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 26 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
12.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
12.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
1.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 8 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
2.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
2.2%
Richard McQuarley run for no gain to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-5
2.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Avery Jordan) to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+3
2.1%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 3 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
2.1%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:0298% → 99%
Q3 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
1.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
1.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
1.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:561% → 9%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
1.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Chris Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+18
1.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 18 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
1.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 15 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
1.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 19 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
1.3%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
4.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Cedric Wilcots II for 4 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-4
5.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
5.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 48 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 15 yds to the NMex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 28TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
17.4%
Jay Griffin IV run for 61 yds for a TD (Tevaka Tuioti pass to Richard McQuarley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Malik Demby for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
14.8%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+10
14.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 10 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
14.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+17
14.7%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Tevaka Tuioti return for 17 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 30FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:0119% → 19%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
18.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+19
18.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 19 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
18.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Shamad Lomax) to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Chris Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
17.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
19.2%
Jason Sanders 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
11.7%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
11.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
12.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
13.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IVSimilar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
15.3%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 5 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
16.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Austin PerkinsSimilar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
14.4%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 33PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5290% → 92%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
10.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+3
10.7%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+5
10.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 5 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+2
11.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
8.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 34TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 1:2711% → 50%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
10.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete, broken up by Cedric Wilcots IISimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+27
10.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 27 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
13.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Austin PerkinsSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+20
13.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 20 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
17.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Ray Baylor III) to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
13.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Q' DrennanSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+13
12.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Rafael Hidalgo for 13 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+6
16.0%
Romell Jordan run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
50.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 19 yds for a TD Timeout NEW MEXICO ST, clock 01:11 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 35END OF GAME
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:4187% → 93%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
13.4%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
12.0%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+16
6.8%
Larry Rose III run for 16 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 19 yds for a TD Timeout NEW MEXICO ST, clock 01:11 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+36.4
TD · Q2 2:22
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 17 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
-18.9
TD · Q4 10:09
Jay Griffin IV run for 61 yds for a TD (Tevaka Tuioti pass to Richard McQuarley for Two-Point Conversion)
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com