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Win probability · IDHO
modelIDHO aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playIDHO scoreUNLV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:00 · Xzaviar Campbell run for 9 yds to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 13:56: Lexington Thomas run for 60 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +12.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:17: Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +14.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:51: Matt Linehan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cade Coffey KICK) — IDHO win probability +10.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:36: Lexington Thomas run for 62 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +11.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:51: Matt Linehan pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 4 yds for a TD, (Cade Coffey PAT MISSED) — IDHO win probability +6.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IDHO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 14:47IDHO 4th & 1 at IDHO 30, tiedClose callPunted · 63.3% before the snapGo for it63.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 13:15UNLV 4th & 2 at IDHO 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.9%56% to convertField goal36.8%−0.177% to makePunt36.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:49IDHO 4th & 8 at IDHO 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snapGo for it59.5%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00UNLV 4th & 16 at IDHO 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snapGo for it43.5%−0.916% to convertField goal43.6%−0.823% to makePuntTheir call44.4%average punt
- Q2 14:44IDHO 4th & 4 at IDHO 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it55.5%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.6%average punt
- Q2 9:32UNLV 4th & 4 at IDHO 23, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snapGo for it47.7%47% to convertField goalTheir call47.5%−0.270% to makePunt43.6%−4.1average punt
- Q2 3:37IDHO 4th & 15 at UNLV 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snapGo for it42.4%−1.416% to convertField goalTheir call43.9%68% to makePunt39.7%−4.1average punt
- Q2 2:20IDHO 4th & 11 at UNLV 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snapGo for it46.2%−1.525% to convertField goalTheir call47.7%75% to makePunt41.6%−6.1average punt
- Q2 0:26UNLV 4th & 2 at IDHO 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snapGo for it56.6%−0.857% to convertField goalTheir call57.5%70% to makePunt52.7%−4.8average punt
- Q3 12:17IDHO 4th & 4 at IDHO 41, down 21Close callWent for it · 21.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.6%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt21.8%average punt
- Q3 7:51UNLV 4th & 5 at IDHO 5, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.3%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call89.4%92% to makePunt82.9%−6.5average punt
- Q3 7:45IDHO 4th & 1 at UNLV 38, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%70% to convertField goal6.5%−3.638% to makePunt6.5%−3.6average punt
- Q4 13:53IDHO 4th & 6 at IDHO 29, down 25Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%average punt
- Q4 13:53IDHO 4th & 1 at UNLV 35, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%71% to convertField goal0.6%−0.745% to makePunt0.3%−1.1average punt
- Q4 6:00UNLV 4th & 2 at IDHO 39, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%57% to convertField goal99.4%−0.236% to makePunt99.4%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:16UNLV 4th & 2 at IDHO 10, up 25Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%55% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%−0.188% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IDHO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 6:59UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.1%97% to makeGo for two39.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:56UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.1%97% to makeGo for two64.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:17UNLV Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.1%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:51IDHO Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.9%97% to makeGo for two11.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:36UNLV Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:51IDHO Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call8.4%97% to makeGo for two8.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:53UNLV Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIDHODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 14:47
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+8
61.0%
Cade Coffey punt for 40 yds , Jericho Flowers returns for 8 yds to the UNLV 38 UNLV Penalty, IB (Ty'Jason Roberts) to the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2TD13 plays · 77 yds · 6:1639% → 43%
Q1 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+16
60.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Kendal Keys for 16 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
60.9%
Armani Rogers run for no gain to the UNLV 48 Armani Rogers fumbled, forced by Aikeem Coleman, recovered by UNLV Armani RogersSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+25
60.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 25 yds to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
60.8%
THOMAS, Lexingt rush for no gain to the IDAHO27, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UNLV holding 3 yards to the IDAHO30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+9
60.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 9 yds to the Idaho 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
UNLVDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 3:5944% → 46%
IDHODrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
UNLVDrive 6FG8 plays · 41 yds · 3:3048% → 50%
Q2 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+13
52.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Kendal Keys for 13 yds to the Idaho 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7FG13 plays · 56 yds · 5:4948% → 47%
Q2 9:26
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+16
48.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to David Ungerer for 16 yds to the Idaho 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+19
49.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 19 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
50.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 6 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
49.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 3 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-10
49.8%
Matt Linehan sacked by Jason Fao for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
46.8%
Armani Rogers pass intercepted Ed Hall return for 10 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9MISSED FG5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5952% → 46%
Q2 2:33
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
48.5%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob Sannon, broken up by Evan AustrieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10MISSED FG9 plays · 57 yds · 1:5456% → 59%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
43.6%
Armani Rogers run for 16 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, IH (Armond Hawkins) to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
40.6%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Kendal Keys for 5 yds to the Idaho 44Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
40.0%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon Presley, broken up by Denzal BrantleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11END OF HALF7 plays · 35 yds · 0:2544% → 48%
UNLVDrive 12TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0457% → 71%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
42.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 10 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 13:52
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+18
31.0%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Chauncey Scissum return for 23 yds to the Idaho 35 IDAHO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-5 Yards) to the Idaho 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14TD2 plays · 9 yds · 1:3572% → 86%
IDHODrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 12:17
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
20.3%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob Sannon, broken up by Tim HoughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16FG7 plays · 36 yds · 3:1288% → 92%
Q3 11:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
12.1%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Sedrick ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17TD13 plays · 84 yds · 3:549% → 21%
Q3 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+36
8.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Aaron Duckworth for 36 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
9.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Michael Garner for 5 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
9.7%
Linehan, Matt pass incomplete to Sannon, Jacob (BAKER, Dalton), PENALTY UNLV pass interference (BAKER, Dalton) 15 yards to the UNLV21, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
10.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 8 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD8 plays · 84 yds · 2:1085% → 96%
IDHODrive 19TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:455% → 12%
UNLVDrive 20TD3 plays · 94 yds · 0:5393% → 99%
IDHODrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 40 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jante Boston for 1 yd to the Idaho 26Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
1.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob Sannon, broken up by Robert JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
1.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 14 yds to the Idaho 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
1.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 5 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
1.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to David Ungerer for 7 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22FG15 plays · 55 yds · 7:1399% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 23END OF GAME10 plays · 50 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q4 2:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
0.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 9 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
0.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 23 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
0.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 11 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
0.1%
Linehan, Matt pass incomplete to Ungerer, David, dropped pass, PENALTY IDAHO personal foul (Rose, Jordan) 15 yards to the UNLV40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+5
0.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jante Boston for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:17
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q3 13:56
Lexington Thomas run for 60 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q3 1:36
Lexington Thomas run for 62 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
-11.2