2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Legion Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadUNH aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreUNH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:22 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:56: Evan Gray run for 2 yds for a TD, (Max Pedinoff KICK) — UNH win probability +7.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:48: Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 18 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Morgan Ellman KICK) — UNH win probability +13.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:40: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NHamp 34 — UNH win probability +8.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 9:59: Evan Gray run for 3 yds to the NHamp 23 — UNH win probability +11.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:18: L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +10.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UNH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 6:40GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 22, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snapGo for it65.1%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.1%average punt
- Q2 9:29GASO 4th & 14 at UNH 26, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snapGo for it48.5%−1.418% to convertField goalTheir call50.0%64% to makePunt45.8%−4.1average punt
- Q2 9:29UNH 4th & 14 at UNH 34, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snapGo for it48.4%−3.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.8%average punt
- Q2 7:15GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 34, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snapGo for it46.0%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.7%average punt
- Q2 0:40GASO 4th & 6 at UNH 35, down 22Close callWent for it · 30.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.3%−0.440% to convertField goal31.7%45% to makePunt27.8%−3.9average punt
- Q3 15:00UNH 4th & 14 at GASO 40, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snapGo for it78.0%−1.919% to convertField goal78.8%−1.134% to makePuntTheir call79.9%average punt
- Q3 11:00GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 27, down 22Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it21.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 8:59UNH 4th & 9 at GASO 47, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snapGo for it88.3%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.2%average punt
- Q3 1:06GASO 4th & 17 at UNH 26, down 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snapGo for it3.6%−2.714% to convertField goalTheir call6.3%64% to makePunt-0.5%−6.8average punt
- Q4 15:00GASO 4th & 1 at UNH 47, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.8%−3.5average punt
- Q4 9:59UNH 4th & 3 at UNH 27, up 17Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snapGo for it93.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.7%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:28GASO 4th & 3 at UNH 49, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.8%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:19UNH 4th & 16 at UNH 44, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snapGo for it90.4%−1.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.6%average punt
- Q4 2:12GASO 4th & 21 at GASO 10, down 10Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.1%−0.68% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 6:46UNH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick32.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call32.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:56UNH Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.6%97% to makeGo for two42.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:48UNH Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.9%97% to makeGo for two69.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:18GASO Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.6%97% to makeGo for two12.3%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1FUMBLE8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
73.9%
Shai Werts pass complete to Myles Campbell for 6 yds to the NHamp 47Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
73.9%
Shai Werts sacked by D'Andre Drummond-Mayrie for a loss of 4 yards to the NHamp 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
-3
73.9%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 3 yards to the NHamp 30 Shai Werts fumbled, recovered by NHamp Brian CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 2TD14 plays · 70 yds · 4:5627% → 32%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
73.2%
Evan Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the NHamp 28 NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+18
73.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 18 yds to the NHamp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+11
73.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 11 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
68.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 10 yds for a TD, (Trevor Knight pass to Justin Malone-Woods for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
UNHDrive 4TD7 plays · 56 yds · 3:3432% → 40%
GASODrive 5MISSED FG20 plays · 54 yds · 7:2061% → 52%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+9
58.9%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Henry for 9 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+7
56.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Henry for 7 yds to the NHamp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
57.1%
Werts, Shai pass complete to Campbell, Myles for 8 yards to the UNH14 (Isiah Perkins;Geno Miller), PENALTY GS personal foul 10 yards to the UNH32, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
50.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 12 yds to the NHamp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
49.7%
Trevor Knight sacked by Logan Hunt for a loss of 4 yards to the NHamp 34Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+8
51.5%
Max Pedinoff punt for 35 yds , Myles Campbell returns for 8 yds to the GeoSo 42 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
UNHDrive 8TD4 plays · 74 yds · 1:2456% → 69%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
44.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Rory Donovan for 4 yds to the NHamp 30Similar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
31.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 18 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Morgan Ellman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9DOWNS12 plays · 32 yds · 3:0335% → 33%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
36.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Monteo Garrett for 6 yds to the NHamp 49Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-8
36.8%
Shai Werts sacked by Rick Holt for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+12
34.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 12 yds to the NHamp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for a loss of 5 yards to the NHamp 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-10
22.2%
Evan Gray rush for 15 yards to the GS19 (Bowdry, Jay), PENALTY UNH holding 10 yards to the GS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+7
22.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Nick Lorden for 7 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+2
23.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 2 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 11:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+10
20.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 31 yds , Evan Horn returns for 10 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
12.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Nick Lorden, broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14FG16 plays · 70 yds · 7:0111% → 13%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
12.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Myles Campbell for 9 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-9
12.8%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 44 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (Wesley Fields) to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 16
OPP 25
-2
13.8%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 2 yards to the NHamp 27 Shai Werts fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 15SF6 plays · -10 yds · 0:5593% → 87%
GASODrive 16INT15 plays · 48 yds · 0:0616% → 19%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
15.6%
Werts, Shai pass incomplete, PENALTY UNH personal foul 15 yards to the GS44, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
16.9%
Shai Werts pass complete to Myles Campbell for 3 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
18.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 15 yds to the NHamp 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+9
17.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 9 yds to the NHamp 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
19.3%
Fields, Wesley rush for loss of 7 yards to the UNH15 (Prince Smith, Jr), PENALTY GS personal foul (Fortune, Obe) 15 yards to the UNH23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 23
0
18.6%
Shai Werts pass intercepted, touchback. Isiah Perkins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 9:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
7.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 4 yds to the NHamp 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD6 plays · 56 yds · 2:107% → 19%
UNHDrive 19PUNT15 plays · 21 yds · 3:5487% → 94%
Q4 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+11
9.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-5
8.1%
NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, delay of game (Trevor Knight) to the NHamp 47Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
6.1%
Max Pedinoff punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Myles Campbell at the GeoSo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:48
Trevor Knight pass complete to Neil O'Connor for 18 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Morgan Ellman KICK)
-13.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:59
Evan Gray run for 3 yds to the NHamp 23
-11.5
TD · Q4 6:18
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
+10.9