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HCU

Houston Christian 11 at Texas State 20

TXST
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreHCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGSAFETYEnd of GameFG+1.4TXST 91.2%James Sherman 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 9 - HOME 20 · Q4 13:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:05 · James Sherman 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Pregame prior+10.1Home team on offense+18.4Garbage-time factor+8.7Score differential+4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:25: James Sherman 25 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +2.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 0:43: Damian Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +9.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:06: Anthony Smith run for 48 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +14.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. SAFETY · Q4 9:03: Andre Walker Safety — HCU win probability +4.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:42: Timeout HOUSTON BAPTIST, clock 04:42 — TXST win probability +6.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9HCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 3 at HCU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:53HCU 4th & 7 at HCU 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:38HCU 4th & 1 at HCU 14, up 9
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:25TXST 4th & 5 at HCU 8, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:08HCU 4th & 20 at HCU 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−3.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:13HCU 4th & 9 at HCU 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:17TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 48, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:13HCU 4th & 7 at HCU 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:23TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−2.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39HCU 4th & 13 at HCU 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−4.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:01HCU 4th & 6 at HCU 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:05TXST 4th & 9 at HCU 9, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−9.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:58HCU 4th & 7 at HCU 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:42HCU 4th & 2 at TXST 2, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−5.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−10.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:37TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 11, up 9
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:21HCU 4th & 3 at TXST 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:00TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:57HCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:43TXST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:06TXST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
88.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 39 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
88.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 4 yds to the HstnB 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
88.3%
R Brown Jr run for 3 yds to the HstnB 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
88.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
88.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Tyler Watts, broken up by Taylor ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:4412% → 13%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
87.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ethan Fry for 13 yds to the HstnB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
87.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Terrance Peters for 7 yds to the HstnB 49Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+18
87.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dennis Houston for 18 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
87.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dennis Houston for 20 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
87.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Isaiah Hall for 10 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
87.8%
Terrance Peters run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.0%
Terrance Peters run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alec Chadwick PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
87.2%
R Brown Jr run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
87.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+6
87.2%
R Brown Jr run for 6 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
87.1%
Damian Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
87.1%
Marcus Ripley punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
86.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the HstnB 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by HstnB Bailey ZappeSimilar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
86.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dennis Houston for 11 yds to the HstnB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
86.2%
Terrance Peters run for 3 yds to the HstnB 46Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
86.2%
Terrance Peters run for no gain to the HstnB 46Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
86.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
86.4%
Christian Guzman punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5INT
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
85.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
85.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-10
85.3%
Williams, Damian pass incomplete to Taylor, Anthony D., PENALTY TXST holding (Foster,Nic) 10 yards to the TXST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 18
OWN 23
+26
85.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 26 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
85.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 10 yds to the HstnB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
85.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 6 yds to the HstnB 35Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
85.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the HstnB 33Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
85.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 3 yds to the HstnB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+31
85.9%
Damian Williams pass intercepted Nicholas Smith return for 17 yds to the HstnB 13 HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyler Helaire) to the HstnB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 6FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:2617% → 20%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
83.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete, broken up by Gabe LoydSimilar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
83.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Terrance Peters, broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+30
83.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ethan Fry for 30 yds to the HstnB 44 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
82.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mev Ajdin for 3 yds to the HstnB 47Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+7
82.7%
Terrance Peters run for 7 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
82.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ethan Fry for 12 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
82.6%
Zappe, Bailey pass incomplete to Fry, Ethan, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Andrew,Aneke) 15 yards to the TXST19, 1ST DOWN HBU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
81.6%
Terrance Peters run for 11 yds to the TexSt 8 Terrance Peters fumbled, forced by Frankie Griffin, recovered by HstnB Buddy Tuamasaga for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.6%
Ethan Fry run for no gain to the TexSt 8Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
81.8%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Hal Vinson for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
80.2%
Alec Chadwick 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5880% → 79%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
79.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Mason Hays) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
79.8%
R Brown Jr run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
79.8%
R Brown Jr run for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
78.7%
Willie Jones ||| run for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-4
78.6%
Marcus Ripley punt for 55 yds , James Brown returns for a loss of 4 yards to the HstnB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
79.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Buddy Tuamasaga for 8 yds to the HstnB 20Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+8
78.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Brandon Taylor for 8 yds to the HstnB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
78.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Terrance Peters for 3 yds to the HstnB 31Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+10
78.7%
Terrance Peters run for 10 yds to the HstnB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
78.2%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, illegal motion (Dennis Houston) to the HstnB 36Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 15
OWN 36
-3
79.0%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Jordan Mittie for a loss of 3 yards to the HstnB 33Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+7
79.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ethan Fry for 7 yds to the HstnB 40Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-15
78.8%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Easy Anyama for a loss of 15 yards to the HstnB 19 Bailey Zappe fumbled, recovered by TexSt Ishmael Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
77.1%
Damian Williams run for 7 yds to the HstnB 12Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+6
77.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds to the HstnB 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 0
OPP 6
+3
77.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the HstnB 5 Anthony D. Taylor fumbled, forced by Taylor Thompson, recovered by HstnB Johnavhon GrahamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
75.9%
Terrance Peters run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 3Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 12
OWN 3
0
75.9%
Terrance Peters run for no gain to the HstnB 3Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+11
76.3%
Terrance Peters run for 11 yds to the HstnB 14Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
76.2%
Christian Guzman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:0074% → 74%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
73.8%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
73.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 3 yds to the HstnB 48Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
73.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 9 yds to the HstnB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
74.3%
R Brown Jr run for 9 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
75.2%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the HstnB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
75.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Chandler Speights for 8 yds to the HstnB 19Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+6
75.2%
Damian Williams run for 6 yds to the HstnB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
75.2%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Raphael LewisSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
75.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to R Brown Jr for 5 yds to the HstnB 8Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
71.1%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
74.0%
James Sherman 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 2 yds · 2:1029% → 31%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
71.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete, broken up by Gabe LoydSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
71.3%
Terrance Peters run for 4 yds to the HstnB 15Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+8
71.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Terrance Peters for 8 yds to the HstnB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
70.7%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the HstnB 18Similar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+4
71.2%
Terrance Peters run for 4 yds to the HstnB 22Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-12
71.0%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Frankie Griffin for a loss of 12 yards to the HstnB 10Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 23
OWN 10
+3
69.8%
James Brown run for 3 yds to the HstnB 13Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 20
OWN 13
0
69.4%
Christian Guzman punt for 41 yds , Hutch White returns for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:1870% → 81%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
69.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Mason Hays for 9 yds to the TEXSTATE 45 for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, roughing passer (Garrett Dolan) to the HstnB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
71.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+17
71.9%
R Brown Jr run for 4 yds to the HstnB 26 for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (Andre Walker) to the HstnB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
71.9%
Damian Williams run for 7 yds to the HstnB 6Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+4
71.9%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the HstnB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
72.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 4Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
71.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.1%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4122% → 20%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.4%
Mev Ajdin run for 1 yd to the HstnB 26Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
78.5%
James Brown run for no gain to the HstnB 26Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
79.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:13
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
79.9%
Christian Guzman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
80.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony Smith for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
81.2%
Anthony Smith run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
50
0
81.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony Smith for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 10
50
-5
81.1%
Anthony Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+3
79.1%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
78.6%
Marcus Ripley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by James Brown at the HstnB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
77.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dennis Houston for 5 yds to the HstnB 15Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+5
76.9%
James Brown run for 5 yds to the HstnB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Dennis Houston, broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
76.9%
Bailey Zappe run for 1 yd to the HstnB 21Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+2
77.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dennis Houston for 2 yds to the HstnB 23Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
78.4%
Christian Guzman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3377% → 74%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
77.4%
R Brown Jr run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
77.3%
R Brown Jr run for no gain to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+5
76.4%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, Defensive offside (Andre Walker) to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-5
76.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to R Brown Jr for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
73.5%
Marcus Ripley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by James Brown at the HstnB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
James Brown run for no gain to the HstnB 25Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
75.3%
Zappe, Bailey deep out pass complete to Fry, Ethan for 20 yards to the HBU45 (Tiggs,Quinn), PENALTY HBU holding (Barner, Cj) 10 yards to the HBU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+7
75.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Isaiah Hall for 7 yds to the HstnB 22Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
76.5%
Christian Guzman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:3976% → 90%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.7%
R Brown Jr run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
76.4%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
75.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 6 yds to the HstnB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
89.9%
Anthony Smith run for 48 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.0%
Mev Ajdin run for 4 yds to the HstnB 24Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
86.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Dennis HoustonSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
87.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Dennis HoustonSimilar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+12
88.3%
Christian Guzman punt for 49 yds , Hutch White returns for 12 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:0990% → 91%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
89.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the HstnB 43 for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, face mask (16 yards) (Andre Walker) to the HstnB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
90.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the HstnB 41Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
90.1%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+15
89.4%
Williams, Damian deep out pass incomplete to Johnson,Dennis, PENALTY HBU pass interference (Lewis, Raphael) 15 yards to the HBU26, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
90.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Tyler Watts for 1 yd to the HstnB 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+17
90.5%
Anthony Smith run for 17 yds to the HstnB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
90.5%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.5%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony Smith for no gain to the HstnB 9Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
91.2%
James Sherman 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
90.3%
Bailey Zappe run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 25Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+19
91.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to James Brown for 4 yds to the HstnB 29 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Ishmael Davis) to the HstnB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
89.1%
James Brown run for 3 yds to the HstnB 47Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
89.1%
Isaiah Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 46Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-5
89.9%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the HstnB 41Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+6
91.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to David Racine for 6 yds to the HstnB 47Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
90.6%
Christian Guzman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24SF
3 plays · -13 yds · 1:1293% → 88%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
92.9%
Anthony Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-1
92.9%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-15
88.0%
Andre Walker SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 25DOWNS
15 plays · 59 yds · 4:1511% → 7%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
88.6%
Bailey Zappe run for 7 yds to the HstnB 45Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
88.2%
LaDarius Dickens run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
50
+9
87.1%
LaDarius Dickens run for 9 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
86.5%
LaDarius Dickens run for 2 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to LaDarius Dickens, broken up by Aneke AndrewSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
87.2%
Zappe, Bailey middle pass incomplete to Racine, David, PENALTY TXST personal foul 15 yards to the TXST24, 1ST DOWN HBU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
85.4%
James Brown run for 9 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+6
85.4%
James Brown run for 6 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
85.4%
LaDarius Dickens run for 2 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
85.4%
Bailey Zappe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.6%
LaDarius Dickens run for no gain to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 4:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
93.5%
Mev Ajdin run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
94.7%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+2
94.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+3
94.5%
R Brown Jr run for 3 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
94.0%
Marcus Ripley punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
95.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dennis Houston for 7 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
95.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Dennis HoustonSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
95.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan MittieSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-5
96.0%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Easy Anyama for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:4697% → 97%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
96.8%
Anthony Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
96.7%
Anthony Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
97.3%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 8
OWN 46
-5
97.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
96.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 40 yds, fair catch by James Brown at the HstnB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 10 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
97.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dennis Houston for 10 yds to the HstnB 29 for a 1ST down to Isaiah Hall for no gain to the HstnB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:06
Anthony Smith run for 48 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q2 0:43
Damian Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)
+9.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:42
Timeout HOUSTON BAPTIST, clock 04:42
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com