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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:44 · Redford Jones 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:08: Ryquell Armstead run for 9 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +4.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:33: David Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +9.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +16.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:19: D'Angelo Brewer run for 14 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:26: TULSA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined — TEM win probability +10.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 15:00TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it60.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.3%average punt
- Q1 6:55TEM 4th & 3 at TLSA 22, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snapGo for it55.1%52% to convertField goalTheir call55.0%−0.172% to makePunt53.8%−1.2average punt
- Q1 6:49TLSA 4th & 17 at TLSA 14, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snapGo for it42.4%−0.813% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.2%average punt
- Q1 5:23TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snapGo for it55.4%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.6%average punt
- Q1 4:57TLSA 4th & 4 at midfield, up 4Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it44.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:49TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it41.3%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.8%average punt
- Q2 12:08TLSA 4th & 1 at TEM 15, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.6%71% to convertField goal34.5%−1.183% to makePunt31.2%−4.4average punt
- Q2 7:44TLSA 4th & 8 at TEM 11, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snapGo for it33.2%−0.329% to convertField goalTheir call33.5%87% to makePunt29.8%−3.7average punt
- Q2 1:55TLSA 4th & 2 at TEM 30, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snapGo for it26.6%57% to convertField goalTheir call25.9%−0.756% to makePunt24.8%−1.8average punt
- Q2 1:09TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 34, up 11Close callPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it71.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.6%−0.5average punt
- Q3 10:13TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 45, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snapGo for it71.5%−2.916% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.3%average punt
- Q3 3:26TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 24, down 11Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snapGo for it21.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.2%−0.3average punt
- Q3 3:26TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 43, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q4 13:33TEM 4th & 5 at TLSA 33, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.1%42% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%−0.149% to makePunt96.8%−0.3average punt
- Q4 10:25TLSA 4th & 14 at TEM 29, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.218% to convertField goalTheir call2.2%58% to makePunt1.4%−0.8average punt
- Q4 9:42TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 45, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
- Q4 3:17TEM 4th & 3 at TLSA 6, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%46% to convertField goal99.1%−0.191% to makePunt98.6%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:05TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.2%97% to makeGo for two42.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:53TEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.8%97% to makeGo for two57.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:08TEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.6%97% to makeGo for two64.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:33TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.1%97% to makeGo for two71.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27TEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.0%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:19TLSA Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.8%97% to makeGo for two25.7%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
36.3%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 19 yds to the Temp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
36.3%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Adonis Jennings, broken up by Cristian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
36.3%
Alex Starzyk punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD8 plays · 90 yds · 2:2237% → 40%
TEMDrive 3FG10 plays · 52 yds · 4:0361% → 60%
Q1 10:58
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+12
39.0%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 12 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-2
38.8%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 44Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+27
39.0%
Frank Nutile pass complete to David Hood for 12 yds to the TULSA 44 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-5
40.1%
PRESIDENT, C. pass complete to HOBBS, J. for 13 yards to the TLS37, out-of-bounds (THOMAS,DERREK), PENALTY TLS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TLS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 17
OWN 14
0
40.0%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 17
OWN 14
0
39.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for no gain to the Temp 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 5:23
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
40.9%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Ryquell Armstead, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q1 4:57
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+14
40.9%
PRESIDENT, C. sacked for loss of 5 yards to the TLS25 (FINCH,SHARIF;ROCHE,QUINCY), PENALTY TEM face mask 14 yards to the TLS44, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 4
50
0
42.1%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 4
50
+5
41.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 10 , Isaiah Wright returns for 5 yds to the Temp 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7TD3 plays · 90 yds · 0:5457% → 62%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
37.7%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 28 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
39.6%
Chad President pass complete to Keylon Stokes for no gain to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
39.0%
Chad President pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Sam FranklinSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
38.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 59 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for no gain to the Temp 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9TD9 plays · 90 yds · 3:2760% → 67%
Q1 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-8
39.6%
ARMSTEAD,R. rush for 26 yards to the TEM42, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TEM holding 8 yards to the TEM8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+7
39.9%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 7 yds to the Temp 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+8
39.8%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Ryquell Armstead for 8 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+51
38.5%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 51 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
37.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 3 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FG16 plays · 64 yds · 4:2433% → 35%
Q2 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
34.0%
Chad President pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0167% → 77%
TLSADrive 12FG12 plays · 45 yds · 3:3825% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:4672% → 73%
TLSADrive 14INT4 plays · 33 yds · 0:0027% → 29%
TEMDrive 15TD1 play · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.6%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD13 plays · 72 yds · 4:3517% → 28%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
18.6%
BREWER, D. rush for loss of 3 yards to the TLS38 (JONES,TODD), PENALTY TLS personal foul 15 yards to the TLS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 16
OWN 35
+15
17.0%
BENNETT, T. punt 16 yards to the TEM49, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TEM personal foul 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
50
+15
18.8%
JOHNSON, K. pass incomplete to HOBBS, J., PENALTY TEM pass interference 15 yards to the TEM35, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+9
19.3%
Will Hefley III pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 9 yds to the Temp 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 15 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 10:13
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
23.9%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 5 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
23.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to David Hood for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-11
23.4%
ARMSTEAD,R. rush for 44 yards to the TLS3 (WHITFIELD, M.), PENALTY TEM holding 11 yards to the TEM42, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0923% → 13%
Q3 3:26
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+72
13.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 48 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for 72 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 3:26
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
4.7%
Will Hefley III pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Keith KirkwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22MISSED FG8 plays · 43 yds · 3:0897% → 97%
Q3 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-4
3.0%
Isaiah Wright pass complete to Adonis Jennings for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 23Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+14
3.1%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 14 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
2.4%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Adonis Jennings, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+51
2.6%
Aaron Boumerhi 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Cristian Williams return for 15 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23MISSED FG8 plays · 41 yds · 3:083% → 2%
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
2.9%
JOHNSON, K. pass incomplete to HOBBS, J., PENALTY TEM pass interference declined, PENALTY TEM personal foul (LEVINE,DANA) 15 yards to the TEM40, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-8
3.3%
Will Hefley III sacked by Jacob Martin for a loss of 8 yards to the Temp 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24PUNT11 plays · 16 yds · 0:4398% → 99%
Q4 9:42
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+4
1.2%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Chris Myarick for 4 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
1.1%
David Hood run for 8 yds to the Temp 48 TEMPLE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Temp 38Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
1.1%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 11 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-6
1.1%
Frank Nutile sacked by Jesse Brubaker for a loss of 6 yards to the TULSA 45 TEMPLE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
1.2%
Alex Starzyk punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nigel Carter at the Tulsa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25FUMBLE1 play · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
1.1%
Will Hefley III sacked by Jacob Martin for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 13 Will Hefley III fumbled, recovered by Temp Karamo Dioubate , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26TD6 plays · 13 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q4 4:33
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
0.5%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Keith Kirkwood, broken up by Allie Green IVSimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
0.5%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi PAT BLOCKED), (Aaron Boumerhi PAT BLOCKED) (Aaron Boumerhi PAT BLOCKED) TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27INT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
1.0%
SIMON, R. rush for 26 yards to the TEM25 (CHANDLER,SEAN), PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the TLS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 19
OWN 40
+6
1.0%
Will Hefley III pass complete to Rob Riederer for 6 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+49
1.0%
Will Hefley III pass intercepted Sean Chandler return for 49 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q3 3:26
TULSA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined
-10.2
TD · Q2 5:33
David Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-9.7