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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreNAVY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:37 · Dane Roy punt for 49 yds , Craig Scott returns for 14 yds to the Houst 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:00: Anthony Gargiulo 13 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +7.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:19: Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 5 yds to the Houst 28 — NAVY win probability +6.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 12:45: Anthony Gargiulo run for 1 yd to the Houst 45 — NAVY win probability +6.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:27: D'Eriq King 2 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick) — HOU win probability +19.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:00: Steven Dunbar 61 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Caden Novikoff Kick) — HOU win probability +25.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 8:38NAVY 4th & 3 at HOU 23, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snapGo for it33.2%52% to convertField goalTheir call33.1%−0.170% to makePunt32.3%−0.9average punt
- Q1 6:02HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it66.2%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%average punt
- Q1 4:37NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it33.0%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q2 9:45NAVY 4th & 1 at HOU 2, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.9%60% to convertField goal35.5%−1.494% to makePunt31.8%−5.1average punt
- Q2 7:20HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snapGo for it63.0%−0.935% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.8%average punt
- Q2 4:37HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snapGo for it50.3%−0.547% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.8%average punt
- Q2 0:51NAVY 4th & 16 at HOU 43, up 7Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snapGo for it51.6%−0.716% to convertField goal52.3%28% to makePuntTheir call52.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 11:29NAVY 4th & 2 at HOU 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.1%57% to convertField goal54.3%−2.838% to makePunt54.3%−2.8average punt
- Q3 8:59NAVY 4th & 16 at HOU 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snapGo for it55.6%−2.016% to convertField goal56.7%−0.832% to makePuntTheir call57.6%average punt
- Q3 6:31HOU 4th & 1 at NAVY 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.4%71% to convertField goal40.8%−4.651% to makePunt38.9%−6.5average punt
- Q4 14:41NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it38.7%−4.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.3%average punt
- Q4 10:44NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 26, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%−1.2average punt
- Q4 7:57HOU 4th & 1 at NAVY 18, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snapGo for it87.8%71% to convertField goalTheir call84.7%−3.179% to makePunt76.0%−11.8average punt
- Q4 4:30NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.6%−1.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q4 4:04HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 27, up 10Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snapGo for it91.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:59NAVY 4th & 20 at HOU 26, down 10Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.7%−0.69% to convertField goal6.2%64% to makePunt4.9%−1.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 2:21HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two69.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:42NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.5%97% to makeGo for two33.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:00NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.7%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:27HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.6%97% to makeGo for two57.3%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 14:00HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.2%97% to makeGo for two74.8%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNAVYDrive 1MISSED FG15 plays · 52 yds · 6:0829% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1671% → 70%
NAVYDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0831% → 30%
Q1 4:37
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+18
69.7%
Owen White punt for 51 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 18 yds to the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0270% → 74%
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+32
69.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 32 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
70.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 24 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
71.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 4 yds to the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2727% → 35%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+29
71.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 17 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Terrell Williams) to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FUMBLE9 plays · 0 yds · 3:0535% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1768% → 67%
Q2 8:41
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+12
67.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 12 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD3 plays · 55 yds · 1:0336% → 44%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+40
64.5%
Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 40 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5056% → 55%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
56.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 17
-3
56.5%
D'Eriq King sacked by Tyler Sayles for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 14Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+14
54.6%
Dane Roy punt for 49 yds , Craig Scott returns for 14 yds to the Houst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 3:3645% → 52%
HOUDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 9 yds · 0:1351% → 50%
HOUDrive 12FUMBLE5 plays · 16 yds · 1:0850% → 51%
NAVYDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 3:4656% → 55%
HOUDrive 14TD15 plays · 90 yds · 5:1645% → 67%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
44.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+34
44.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 34 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
48.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
48.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+8
49.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 8 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-10
48.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Steven Dunbar) to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 18
OPP 23
+3
45.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 3 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+13
43.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Taylor Heflin) to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 3:3542% → 41%
HOUDrive 16TD3 plays · 73 yds · 0:3862% → 86%
NAVYDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3918% → 16%
Q4 10:44
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
83.7%
Owen White punt for 45 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for no gain to the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18FG8 plays · 53 yds · 2:2686% → 90%
NAVYDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 3:2711% → 7%
Q4 4:30
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
92.6%
Owen White punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:2292% → 94%
Q4 4:11
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
94.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Derek McLemore for 5 yds to the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21INT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:515% → 3%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
95.0%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 29 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
94.4%
Garret Lewis sacked by Ed Oliver for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+26
96.8%
Garret Lewis pass intercepted Alexander Myres return for 13 yds to the Houst 29 HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Ed Oliver) to the Houst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22END OF GAME5 plays · 17 yds · 2:3096% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:00
Steven Dunbar 61 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Caden Novikoff Kick)
+25.1
TD · Q3 3:27
D'Eriq King 2 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)
+19.9
TD · Q2 6:00
Anthony Gargiulo 13 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)
-7.1