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USF

South Florida 42 at UCF 49

UCF
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:33 · Jonathan Hernandez punt for 54 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 192Pregame prior+3.2Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:41: Quinton Flowers run for 24 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +23.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:33: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 45 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +29.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:21: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +21.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:41: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 83 yds for a TD, (Quinton Flowers pass to D'Ernest Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — USF win probability +41.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:28: Emilio Nadelman kickoff for 60 yds , Mike Hughes return for 95 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +39.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 8:41USF 4th & 1 at UCF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:30USF 4th & 12 at UCF 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:48USF 4th & 14 at USF 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UCF 4th & 5 at USF 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:46UCF 4th & 12 at USF 47, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:04USF 4th & 14 at UCF 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:04UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 44, up 8
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:09UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 33, up 1
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UCF 4th & 1 at USF 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−2.0
    60% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:33USF 4th & 17 at USF 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−3.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:41UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 34, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00USF 4th & 11 at USF 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−3.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:41UCF 4th & 1 at USF 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−6.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−8.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:10USF 4th & 13 at USF 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−3.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:33USF 4th & 7 at USF 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:52USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:16UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:41UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:46USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:09USF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:30UCF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:42USF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:41USF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:33UCF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−1.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:21UCF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.7
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:41USF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    23.9%−4.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:28UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:0825% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
74.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+21
74.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 21 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
74.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 47 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 2:3674% → 73%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
74.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Khalid McGee) to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
74.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
74.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
74.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
74.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 21 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
74.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
74.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+10
74.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 3 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Khalid McGee) to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
74.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
73.3%
UCF Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:3526% → 27%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
73.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+37
73.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 37 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
73.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
73.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
73.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
72.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:5573% → 76%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
73.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 13 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
73.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+12
73.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
73.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 3 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
73.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
73.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Devin AbrahamSimilar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+15
73.5%
Otis Anderson run for 15 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
73.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
76.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:1125% → 25%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+55
75.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 55 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
73.8%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 12
OPP 24
0
74.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
74.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell Wilcox, broken up by Mike HughesSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
75.2%
Emilio Nadelman 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:0775% → 80%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
75.2%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+21
75.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 21 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
76.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
76.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+30
75.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 15 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Ronnie Hoggins) to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
79.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds Adrian Killins Jr. for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:3522% → 20%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
78.3%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 9Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+12
78.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 12 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
78.3%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 14
OWN 17
0
78.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 14
OWN 17
0
78.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 14
OWN 17
+17
80.0%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 51 yds , Mike Hughes returns for 17 yds to the UCF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3781% → 81%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
81.0%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
81.2%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+5
81.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+5
80.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
80.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 2:0319% → 24%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
80.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+11
80.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 11 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+68
80.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 55 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
78.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-10
79.1%
FLOWERS, Quinton rush for 10 yards to the UCF0, clock 12:00, PENALTY USF holding (NORMAN, Marcus) 10 yards to the UCF20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 18
OPP 20
0
80.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCants SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 18
OPP 20
+20
76.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for 20 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
76.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 14 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
76.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 8 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+8
77.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 8 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
77.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
77.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-1
76.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
75.5%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-11
77.0%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 11 yards to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+14
77.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 14 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+33
77.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 33 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
75.4%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 14
OPP 48
0
76.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 14
OPP 48
0
77.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
77.6%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
77.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 16 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
77.9%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
78.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 4 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
78.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
77.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:2622% → 35%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
78.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 13 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
77.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+19
77.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 19 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
76.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 9 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+1
75.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
76.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
74.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
75.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
74.9%
FLOWERS, Quinton pass complete to WILCOX, Mitch for no gain to the UCF26 (MOORE, Brandon), PENALTY UCF offside defense 5 yards to the UCF21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 5
OPP 21
0
74.9%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
65.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 21 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
71.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
70.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+13
69.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 40 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 13 yds to the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
67.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
66.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+14
67.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 14 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
65.8%
Quinton Flowers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
69.9%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 15
OWN 6
-2
69.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
70.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 13 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
71.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
71.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+13
72.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 13 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
73.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
73.5%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
72.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
71.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
68.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah Dillon, broken up by Shaquem GriffinSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-7
68.9%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Tony Guerad and Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 17
OWN 21
0
70.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 17
OWN 21
+11
71.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 39 yds , Mike Hughes returns for 11 yds to the SFla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:5272% → 83%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
72.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 18 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
73.1%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
72.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+15
70.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 15 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
73.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (Aaron Evans) to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+23
83.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 3:4820% → 40%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
79.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 9 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-3
78.2%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+7
80.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 7 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
79.2%
Darius Tice run for 10 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
78.2%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
77.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+23
79.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 23 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
75.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+17
76.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 17 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
75.5%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
59.7%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.3%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Ronnie Hoggins return for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:5538% → 64%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
61.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+10
59.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 10 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
59.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
36.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 24 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.6%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
44.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 34 Greg McCraeSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
44.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for no gain to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
42.3%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:0661% → 61%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
40.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
39.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 9 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
38.4%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-1
39.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the SFla 45 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
38.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
39.3%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 59 yds, downed at the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 61 yds · 0:0039% → 44%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
38.9%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+12
38.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 12 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
40.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+13
40.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 13 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
41.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
41.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+10
39.9%
MILTON, Mckenzie pass intercepted by THOMAS, Jaymon at the USF29, THOMAS, Jaymon return to the USF29, PENALTY USF holding 10 yards to the UCF45, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
44.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 13 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
46.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
46.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 7 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
45.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
43.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0073% → 68%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
27.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
27.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 1 yd to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-5
28.6%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Chequan Burkett for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
32.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:3533% → 67%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+27
33.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 27 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
39.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
38.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+45
67.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 45 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
62.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 15Similar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-3
62.9%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 12Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
63.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+20
65.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 20 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
60.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
61.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
61.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 6 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
57.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
57.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
59.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
62.3%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:1264% → 96%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
64.2%
Otis Anderson run for 7 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
65.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
65.1%
MILTON, Mckenzie pass incomplete to SMITH, Tre'Quan (NICHOLS, Deatrick), PENALTY USF pass interference (NICHOLS, Deatrick) 15 yards to the UCF47, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
69.4%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+30
71.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 30 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
74.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
95.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:408% → 50%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
91.7%
JOHNSON, D'Ernest rush for 4 yards to the USF31 (BURKETT, Chequan), PENALTY USF holding 10 yards to the USF17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+83
50.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 83 yds for a TD, (Quinton Flowers pass to D'Ernest Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 32FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
87.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell Salomon, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+10
88.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 10 yds Mitchell Wilcox fumbled, forced by Richie Grant, recovered by UCF Chequan BurkettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 33END OF GAME
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0596% → 96%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 15
OWN 41
-3
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 18
OWN 38
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:41
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 83 yds for a TD, (Quinton Flowers pass to D'Ernest Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)
-41.7
TD · Q4 1:28
Emilio Nadelman kickoff for 60 yds , Mike Hughes return for 95 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+39.2
TD · Q4 7:33
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 45 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+29.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com