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TLSA

Tulsa 20 at South Florida 27

USF
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2017 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:06 · Thomas Bennett punt for 39 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 6 yds to the SFla 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+16.9Home team on offense+12.7Garbage-time factor+1.3Score differential+4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Time remaining+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:27: Darius Tice run for 54 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +1.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:04: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 35 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +1.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:33: Luke Skipper run for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +4.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:13: Emilio Nadelman 48 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +2.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:19: Redford Jones 38 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +5.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 13:37USF 4th & 4 at USF 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:46TLSA 4th & 5 at USF 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:53TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:11TLSA 4th & 8 at USF 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:33TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:05USF 4th & 7 at TLSA 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:10TLSA 4th & 1 at USF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−3.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:27TLSA 4th & 23 at TLSA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:13USF 4th & 23 at TLSA 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:32TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 28, down 10
    Close callPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:06TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:28USF 4th & 10 at TLSA 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:36TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:41USF 4th & 7 at TLSA 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:44TLSA 4th & 26 at TLSA 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:40USF 4th & 17 at USF 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:19TLSA 4th & 9 at USF 21, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.9%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:34USF 4th & 1 at USF 37, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%−1.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:19TLSA 4th & 3 at USF 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−4.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−4.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:27TLSA 4th & 9 at USF 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−2.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:06TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:05USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:27USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:04USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:33TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0395% → 94%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
94.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
94.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+4
94.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 4 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
94.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:246% → 7%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
94.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
94.4%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 14
OWN 25
-7
94.3%
Luke Skipper sacked by Deadrin Senat and Bruce Hector for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 21
OWN 18
+58
94.1%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Nigel Carter for 58 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
93.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+8
93.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
93.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
93.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the SFla 12Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
93.0%
Luke Skipper run for 12 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3993% → 93%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
93.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
92.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
50
+5
92.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
92.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+1
92.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
92.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+12
92.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
93.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 25 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:027% → 8%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
92.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 24 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.4%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
92.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
92.2%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
92.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:0492% → 93%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
92.3%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+19
92.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 19 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
92.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+54
93.4%
Darius Tice run for 54 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:277% → 7%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
93.0%
Keenen Johnson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
93.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+36
93.0%
TEAM punt blocked by Devon Jones-Stewart blocked by Devon Jones-StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 0:4193% → 94%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
92.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 14 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
93.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+19
93.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
94.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 35 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 5:496% → 8%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
93.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
93.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+7
93.8%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 7 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
93.7%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+19
93.7%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 19 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
93.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
93.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 5 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
93.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 14 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
93.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+14
93.3%
Luke Skipper run for 14 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
93.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
92.9%
Luke Skipper run for 2 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-3
93.1%
Luke Skipper run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 13Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
92.3%
Redford Jones 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9FUMBLE
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:3793% → 93%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
92.6%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the SFla 13Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+12
92.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.7%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
92.8%
Darius Tice run for 9 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
92.8%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+6
92.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
92.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
92.8%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+3
92.5%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the 50 yard line Quinton Flowers fumbled, forced by Diamon Cannon, recovered by Tulsa Jesse Brubaker , return to the 50 yard line , return for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:409% → 8%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
50
-1
91.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
91.6%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
91.8%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
92.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:1092% → 93%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
92.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+34
92.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 34 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
92.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
92.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+27
92.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 27 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
92.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
92.4%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+4
92.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
93.2%
Emilio Nadelman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 2:177% → 11%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
93.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
93.2%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+24
93.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 24 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
92.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 29 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
91.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
91.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
92.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
91.7%
Luke Skipper run for 3 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
92.7%
Chad President run for 1 yd to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
88.6%
Luke Skipper run for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 10 yds · 4:2811% → 12%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
88.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
87.4%
Rowdy Simon run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.7%
Rowdy Simon run for no gain to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
87.7%
Luke Skipper run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
87.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 6 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
87.5%
Rowdy Simon run for 3 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
86.5%
Rowdy Simon run for no gain to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
86.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-12
87.6%
Luke Skipper sacked by TEAM for a loss of 12 yards to the SOUFLA 45 TULSA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Luke Skipper) to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 23
OWN 45
0
88.5%
Thomas Bennett punt blocked by Devon Jones-Stewart blocked by Devon Jones-StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15FG
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:0990% → 89%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
89.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 9 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
89.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+4
89.2%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
90.3%
Flowers, Quinton rush for 1 yard to the TULSA17, PENALTY SOUFLA holding 10 yards to the TULSA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 20
OPP 28
-4
90.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 24
OPP 32
+1
89.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 23
OPP 31
0
88.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 23
OPP 31
+48
89.4%
Emilio Nadelman 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:2810% → 10%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
89.8%
Luke Skipper sacked by Juwuan Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-5
90.1%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
90.0%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for no gain to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+18
90.4%
Chad President pass complete to Nigel Carter for 18 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
90.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17INT
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:1291% → 91%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
90.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 7 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
91.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
90.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
91.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+13
91.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
90.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+19
90.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
90.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
91.1%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Diamon Cannon return for 4 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:5910% → 10%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
89.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
89.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
89.4%
Chad President pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
90.0%
Chad President pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+6
90.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 39 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 6 yds to the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:2991% → 90%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
91.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
91.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
91.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
90.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
89.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Nigel Carter at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3910% → 11%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
90.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+1
89.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
89.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
89.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
88.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
88.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+1
87.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Chad President run for no gain to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-1
87.9%
Chad President run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+14
89.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 34 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 14 yds to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4191% → 90%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
90.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
90.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+12
90.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
50
-1
91.3%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+4
90.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
90.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
89.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:518% → 7%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
91.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 18 D'Angelo Brewer fumbled, recovered by Tulsa D'Angelo BrewerSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+19
91.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Juwuan Brown) to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
90.1%
President, Chad pass incomplete, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference (Nichols, Deatrick) 15 yards to the SOUFLA48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.8%
Chad President pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
89.1%
Chad President run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-12
91.5%
Chad President sacked by Auggie Sanchez for a loss of 12 yards to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 26
OWN 36
+3
92.7%
Thomas Bennett punt for 38 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 3 yds to the SFla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:5493% → 92%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
92.6%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
92.5%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-4
92.4%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 17
OWN 22
0
92.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt blocked by Ryan McDaniel blocked by Ryan McDanielSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4111% → 15%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
89.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+4
90.0%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
90.8%
Chad President pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
85.5%
Redford Jones 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2393% → 93%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
93.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
92.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+8
92.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 8 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
93.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 44 yds · 2:0212% → 12%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.6%
Chad President pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
87.8%
Chad President pass complete to Nigel Carter for 7 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+14
87.0%
Chad President pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 14 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
85.2%
Chad President pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
85.5%
Chad President pass complete to Chris Minter for 7 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
84.1%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+15
85.7%
Chad President pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 15 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
80.5%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
80.8%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-6
85.1%
Chad President sacked by Greg Reaves for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 21
OPP 42
+7
89.8%
Chad President pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 7 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 14
OPP 35
+5
90.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 9
OPP 30
0
88.3%
Chad President pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 4:19
Redford Jones 38 yd FG GOOD
-5.3
TD · Q2 0:33
Luke Skipper run for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-4.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com