Try the model
CIN

Cincinnati 20 at East Carolina 48

ECU
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · James Smith punt for 65 yds, downed at the ECaro 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense+9.2Pregame prior−8.3Score differential+3.5Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:19: Hussein Howe run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +7.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:02: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +22.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:51: Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 75 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones PAT MISSED) — CIN win probability +18.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:32: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 95 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +13.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:03: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 22 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +8.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:34ECU 4th & 3 at CIN 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:19CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:42ECU 4th & 6 at CIN 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−5.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.5%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:51ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 37, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:24ECU 4th & 7 at CIN 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:32CIN 4th & 25 at CIN 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−4.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:17ECU 4th & 8 at CIN 33, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:17CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:13ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:06CIN 4th & 2 at ECU 41, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:30ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:19ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:02ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:51CIN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:29CIN Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:32ECU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:03ECU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:46CIN Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:06ECU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3034% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
34.0%
Darius Pinnix run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
34.0%
Darius Pinnix run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+14
34.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 14 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
34.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 5 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
34.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 6 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
36.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tahj Deans for 23 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -21 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
35.7%
BOONE, Mike rush over left end for loss of 1 yard to the CIN34 (WILLIAMS, Jrdn), PENALTY CIN holding 10 yards to the CIN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+1
35.8%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 19
OWN 26
0
35.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Keyshawn CanadySimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 19
OWN 26
-12
35.9%
Hayden Moore sacked by Kiante Anderson for a loss of 12 yards to the Cincy 14 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Cincy Garrett Campbell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 31
OWN 14
0
36.0%
James Smith punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:1537% → 45%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
37.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Thomas Sirk for 5 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
37.3%
Hussein Howe run for 1 yd to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+22
37.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 7 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
37.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for 7 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
37.7%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
37.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tahj Deans for no gain to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+33
37.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 33 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
37.7%
Hussein Howe run for 5 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.4%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Corey SeargentSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Michael Warren II for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
43.7%
James Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:4246% → 50%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
45.7%
Hussein Howe run for 9 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+16
45.9%
Terrell Green run for 16 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
46.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 12 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
46.7%
Hussein Howe run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 44 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-8 Yards) to the ECaro 48Similar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 19
OWN 48
+8
46.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 8 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+16
46.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Thomas Sirk for 16 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
46.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
46.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Terrell GreenSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
46.4%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Tahj Deans, broken up by Marquese TaylorSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
49.6%
Jake Verity 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4252% → 49%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
48.4%
Hayden Moore run for 8 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+6
47.7%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
47.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-10
47.8%
MOORE, Hayden pass complete to BOONE, Mike for 6 yards to the CIN47, out-of-bounds (CANADY, Keyshwn), PENALTY CIN holding 10 yards to the CIN31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+2
50.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 2 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
50.8%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
50.9%
James Smith punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:1352% → 77%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
52.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tahj Deans for 11 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
52.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 7 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
52.6%
Darius Pinnix run for 4 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.8%
Darius Pinnix run for no gain to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
52.6%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Darius PinnixSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
52.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+12
52.2%
Hussein Howe run for 12 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
53.7%
Deondre Farrier run for 7 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
53.7%
Gardner Minshew run for 4 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
53.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for 1 yd to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
53.7%
Reid Herring run for 4 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
53.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
76.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
57.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 75 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
58.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Tahj DeansSimilar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
57.9%
Hussein Howe run for 5 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 5
OWN 14
-7
57.8%
MINSHEW, Grdnr rush quarterback keeper for 12 yards to the ECU26, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ECU holding 7 yards to the ECU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 12
OWN 7
+18
57.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tahj Deans for 18 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
58.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
57.8%
MINSHEW, Grdnr sideline pass incomplete to DEANS, Tahj (STEPHENS, L.), PENALTY CIN holding 10 yards to the ECU34, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
59.0%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
59.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Thomas SirkSimilar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
58.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for no gain to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
57.9%
Austin Barnes punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:2136% → 47%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
64.3%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
63.7%
Mike Boone run for 8 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
63.1%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+3
62.4%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.9%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
63.1%
Hayden Moore run for 15 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
61.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
62.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 15 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
60.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 6 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+12
60.4%
Hayden Moore run for 12 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
53.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JaQuay Savage for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 1:0560% → 67%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Hussein HoweSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus BrownSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+33
58.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 33 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
62.6%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Tahj DeansSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
62.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for 6 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+4
61.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tahj Deans for 4 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
62.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Tahj Deans, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
62.7%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
64.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Tahj DeansSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
67.1%
Jake Verity 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
62.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 5
OWN 33
-1
61.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tyler CogswellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
65.3%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
66.6%
Hayden Moore run for 8 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
66.8%
James Smith punt for 65 yds, downed at the ECaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14TD
1 play · 95 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+95
79.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 95 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
15 plays · 11 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
77.1%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
76.9%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-5
76.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+10
77.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 10 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
76.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
77.1%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+9
76.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
75.6%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-5
75.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (David Niehaus) to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
76.5%
MOORE, Hayden rush quarterback keeper for 6 yards to the ECU38 (PURVIS, Raequan), PENALTY CIN holding 10 yards to the CIN46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 20
OWN 46
-5
78.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 25
OWN 41
0
78.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Keyshawn CanadySimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 25
OWN 41
0
78.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike Boone, broken up by Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 25
OWN 41
0
78.6%
James Smith punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:1888% → 98%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+45
88.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 45 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
89.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 13 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
89.0%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
89.0%
Hussein Howe run for 5 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+22
97.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 22 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:174% → 10%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
95.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for 16 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
95.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Javan Hawes for 11 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
95.8%
Michael Warren II run for 15 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
95.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for 2 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
95.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 6 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
95.5%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
95.2%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
95.3%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
95.6%
MOORE, Hayden rush quarterback keeper for no gain to the ECU6 (SUTTON, Devon;HICKERSON, Chnd), PENALTY CIN false start 5 yards to the ECU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
95.2%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the ECaro 6Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:2993% → 98%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.4%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
94.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 15 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.6%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
94.5%
Darius Pinnix run for 8 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
94.5%
Darius Pinnix run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
94.7%
Darius Pinnix run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
94.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 8 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Hussein Howe, broken up by Jaylyin MinorSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
94.6%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+7
94.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 7 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 28
-5
93.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+50
98.3%
Jake Verity 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Javan HawesSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-4
98.4%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 18Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 14
OWN 18
0
98.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
98.5%
James Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.6%
Gardner Minshew run for 1 yd to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-1
98.6%
Darius Pinnix run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 37Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 10
OWN 0
0
98.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Trevon Brown CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the ECaro 37Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Austin Barnes punt for 62 yds, downed at the Cincy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
98.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+1
98.8%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 7Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+7
98.9%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
98.8%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Chris Love return for 9 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:1999% → 100%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
99.1%
Hussein Howe run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-3
99.1%
Reid Herring run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 20 Reid Herring fumbled, recovered by ECaro Reid HerringSimilar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
99.9%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Michael Warren II run for 10 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Taylor Boose for 9 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-3
99.9%
Taylor Boose run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+1
99.9%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Reid Herring run for 2 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Darius Pinnix run for no gain to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+2
100.0%
Darius Pinnix run for 2 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:02
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
+22.7
TD · Q2 8:51
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 75 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones PAT MISSED)
-18.6
TD · Q3 13:32
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 95 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com