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SMU

SMU 40 at Navy 43

NAVY
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:25 · Jamie Sackville punt for 30 yds, downed at the Navy 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Home team on offense+11.9Score differential+3.8Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Pregame prior−0.6Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:02: Malcolm Perry run for 92 yds for a TD, (Owen White KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Chris High run for 2 yds for a TD, (Owen White KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:37: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 14 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +11.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:32: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 29 yds for a TD, (Ben Hicks pass to Trey Quinn for Two-Point Conversion) — SMU win probability +46.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: J.R. Osborn 18 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +30.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:20SMU 4th & 11 at NAVY 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:35SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.7%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50SMU 4th & 5 at NAVY 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:28NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 24, up 8
    Close callPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:13SMU 4th & 18 at SMU 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:13SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 21, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:35NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 29, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−1.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:37NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 33, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:26NAVY 4th & 8 at SMU 29, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 45, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−6.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:25SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−2.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:45NAVY 4th & 3 at SMU 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 1, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 14.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%−14.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−49.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:41NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:35NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:24NAVY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:39SMU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:02NAVY Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19NAVY Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:37SMU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:19SMU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:14NAVY Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:21SMU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:32SMU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.2%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:1947% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
47.0%
Jahmaal Daniel run for 11 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
47.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+9
47.0%
Chris High run for 9 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
47.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
47.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 8 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
47.0%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+3
47.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+4
47.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+22
47.0%
Josh Brown run for 22 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds for a TD, (Owen White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:2150% → 50%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
49.9%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
49.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete, broken up by Dave TolentinoSimilar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+12
49.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 12 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
49.6%
Xavier Jones run for 15 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
49.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 10 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
49.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-1
49.3%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
49.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by D.J. PalmoreSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
49.9%
Josh Williams 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 4:4550% → 56%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
49.6%
Chris High run for no gain to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
49.5%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+44
49.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 44 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
50.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+20
50.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 20 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
50.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 1 yd to the SMU 22Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+19
50.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 19 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Owen White PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
56.4%
Mikial Onu return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:4545% → 44%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
54.7%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
54.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 7 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
54.2%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+21
54.8%
Xavier Jones run for 21 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
53.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
53.2%
Ben Hicks run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
55.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
56.5%
Josh Williams 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
56.4%
Malcolm Perry pass intercepted Delano Robinson return for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
54.8%
Trey Quinn pass intercepted Micah Thomas return for no gain to the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1056% → 56%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
56.4%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+2
56.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+7
55.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
55.8%
Owen White punt for 49 yds, downed at the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
58.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 6 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-1
57.4%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-5
58.3%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-8
59.1%
Ben Hicks sacked by Josh Webb for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 18
OWN 19
0
59.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, downed at the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:0658% → 68%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+19
57.8%
Darryl Bonner run for 4 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
60.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
68.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 24 yds for a TD, (Owen White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:4534% → 40%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
65.6%
Ben Hicks sacked by Micah Thomas and Brandon Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+27
65.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
50
+32
63.9%
Xavier Jones run for 32 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
62.7%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-1
63.1%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+19
60.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 19 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
62.2%
Chris High run for 9 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
62.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the Navy 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SMU Delano RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
59.5%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-1
59.0%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Winn Howard return for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
73.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 92 yds for a TD, (Owen White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
71.2%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
71.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 7 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
71.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
71.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:1677% → 91%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
76.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+13
76.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 13 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
77.0%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
77.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
76.3%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+1
75.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
77.0%
Brandon Colon run for 26 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.6%
Chris High run for 2 yds for a TD, (Owen White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
87.0%
Ben Hicks run for 2 yds to the SMU 31 SMU Penalty, illegal forward pass (Ben Hicks) to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+11
87.4%
Braeden West run for 11 yds to the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:2312% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
88.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
88.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 7 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.0%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
88.2%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to SUTTON, Courtland, PENALTY NAVY pass interference (MERCHANT, Elijah) 15 yards to the SMU49, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
87.7%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-5
87.5%
JONES, Xavier rush for 1 yard to the NAVY46 (HOWARD, Winn), PENALTY SMU illegal formation 5 yards to the SMU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
88.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+19
88.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 19 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
87.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
87.4%
Xavier Jones run for 19 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
75.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 14 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
81.3%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
81.4%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for no gain to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+1
80.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
80.1%
Owen White punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:1519% → 30%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
81.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+49
80.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 49 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
78.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
78.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
78.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 3Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.0%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:0576% → 91%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
76.4%
SMU Penalty, personal foul (Shaine Hailey) to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
77.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
77.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
77.3%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-3
76.2%
John Brown III run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+24
76.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 24 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
79.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.7%
Malcolm Perry 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5314% → 25%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
84.2%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to SUTTON, Courtland, PENALTY NAVY pass interference (FARRAR, Micah) 15 yards to the SMU47, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+35
83.8%
Ben Hicks run for 20 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Sean Williams) to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
81.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
81.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Jarid RyanSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+17
75.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 17 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:2181% → 82%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
80.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
80.9%
Josh Brown run for 15 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
83.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
83.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
82.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
81.8%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 18%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
78.4%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
79.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
81.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
82.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 30 yds, downed at the Navy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 6:4984% → 96%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
83.8%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
83.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
84.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
85.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 12 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
86.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
86.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
85.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
86.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+2
86.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+3
85.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+1
95.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:0814% → 63%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
86.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
85.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+26
86.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 26 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
83.4%
Braeden West run for 11 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
36.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 29 yds for a TD, (Ben Hicks pass to Trey Quinn for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26FG
14 plays · 78 yds · 3:3252% → 94%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
52.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
54.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
53.2%
Darryl Bonner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+14
53.7%
Darryl Bonner run for 14 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+21
57.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 21 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+29
62.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 29 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
65.6%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
65.6%
Garret Lewis run for 5 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.7%
Garret Lewis run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
94.4%
J.R. Osborn 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:32
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 29 yds for a TD, (Ben Hicks pass to Trey Quinn for Two-Point Conversion)
-46.5
FG · Q4 0:00
J.R. Osborn 18 yd FG GOOD
+30.8
TD · Q2 5:02
Malcolm Perry run for 92 yds for a TD, (Owen White KICK)
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com