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HOU

Houston 28 at South Florida 24

USF
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:06 · Jonathan Hernandez punt for 41 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 2 yds to the Houst 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+10.1Home team on offense+9.1Garbage-time factor+4.3Score differential+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:03: Mulbah Car 4 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick) — HOU win probability +20.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:27: Quinton Flowers 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +20.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:20: D'Eriq King 3 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick) — HOU win probability +29.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:46: Emilio Nadelman 30 Yd Field Goal — USF win probability +22.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:11: D'Eriq King 20 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick) — HOU win probability +62.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 14 of 15HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00USF 4th & 12 at USF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:20HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:14USF 4th & 8 at HOU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:20HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:31USF 4th & 13 at USF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 8:19HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:43USF 4th & 1 at HOU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:54USF 4th & 10 at USF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 14:04HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.5%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:15USF 4th & 1 at HOU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−0.9
    60% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 9:34USF 4th & 2 at HOU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q2 9:34HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q2 7:41USF 4th & 1 at HOU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%−1.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−3.8
    average punt
  15. Q2 4:37USF 4th & 20 at USF 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  16. Q2 2:09HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  17. Q2 0:05USF 4th & 15 at USF 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 13:02USF 4th & 1 at HOU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−2.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−10.7
    average punt
  19. Q3 8:55HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  20. Q3 6:06USF 4th & 11 at USF 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  21. Q3 3:03USF 4th & 9 at USF 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 15:00HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−3.9
    average punt
  23. Q4 14:51USF 4th & 15 at USF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−5.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  24. Q4 13:59HOU 4th & 1 at USF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−6.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−7.1
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:46USF 4th & 4 at HOU 13, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%−1.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−32.6
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:07HOU 4th & 24 at HOU 37, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 9:34USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:02HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:55USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:03HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:27USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:20HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:11HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.4%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-1
77.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
77.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 40 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 5 yds to the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
76.9%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
77.0%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+6
77.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+23
77.0%
Dane Roy punt for 38 yds HOUSTON Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the SFla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
76.8%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+2
76.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+22
76.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 22 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
77.0%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
77.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
76.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
76.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.2%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
76.3%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
76.4%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+1
76.5%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds , Donelle Thomas returns for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
76.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+1
76.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
75.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, broken up by Ed OliverSimilar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 13
OWN 33
-2
75.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 41 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
75.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to John Leday for 7 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+3
75.4%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
75.5%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
75.6%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
75.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
75.9%
Dane Roy punt for 52 yds, downed at the SFla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7DOWNS
14 plays · 76 yds · 2:2175% → 75%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
75.0%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 12
OWN 11
0
75.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+9
74.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 9 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+5
74.5%
HERNANDEZ, Jon punt 40 yards to the HOU40, McDOWELL, Brand return to the HOU46 (MCGEE, Khalid), PENALTY HOU offside defense (MARK, Terry) 5 yards to the USF25, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.1%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
75.2%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
75.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 33 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.6%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
75.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for 11 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
75.6%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
75.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darius TiceSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
75.2%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
74.8%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0527% → 27%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
73.3%
D'Eriq King run for 6 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+6
73.3%
Duke Catalon run for 6 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
73.3%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
73.1%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-5
73.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 12
OWN 21
-2
73.8%
D'Eriq King sacked by Mike Love for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
73.5%
Dane Roy punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, broken up by Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
73.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for no gain to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
72.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
72.5%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Burrell at the Houst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
71.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to John Leday for 7 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-2
71.1%
D'Eriq King sacked by Greg Reaves and Kelvin Pinkney for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
72.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-3
72.0%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:0574% → 78%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
74.3%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+3
73.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+9
73.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+18
73.3%
Darius Tice run for 18 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
74.6%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
74.6%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
74.0%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
77.1%
KING, D'Eriq rush for 8 yards to the USF49 (WILKINS, Mazzi), PENALTY HOU holding (LESLIE, Alex) 10 yards to the HOU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+13
77.9%
D'Eriq King run for 13 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
76.6%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
76.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Duke CatalonSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
77.8%
Dane Roy punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 53 yds · 0:0078% → 79%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
78.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 33 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
79.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
79.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+10
79.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for 10 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
79.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
79.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 9 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
79.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
78.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
78.2%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-2
78.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+23
79.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 23 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
76.8%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the SFla 41 Mulbah Car fumbled, forced by Khalid McGee, recovered by SFla Devin Abraham , return for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0080% → 77%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.8%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
79.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 15
OWN 36
-9
78.7%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Leroy Godfrey for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 24
OWN 27
+4
77.7%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
77.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 32 yds , Team returns for no gain to the Houst 45 Team fumbled, recovered by Houst Josh Burrell , return for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0923% → 22%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
77.0%
D'Eriq King sacked by Deadrin Senat for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+5
77.8%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
77.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
78.4%
Dane Roy punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 1:1078% → 78%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
77.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 4 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
77.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+17
76.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 17 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
77.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 11 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
79.2%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
79.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
78.8%
Quinton Flowers sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 15
OWN 38
+31
77.7%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the SOUFLA 31 HOUSTON Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5822% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.8%
D'Eriq King run for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
76.3%
Duke Catalon run for 15 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
75.8%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+10
75.5%
Mulbah Car run for 10 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
75.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
61.7%
Courtney Lark 39 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0768% → 83%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
68.4%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
68.2%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
67.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 12 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
70.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 4 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
71.0%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+18
70.8%
Darius Tice run for 18 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
72.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 13 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-8
72.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 2 yds to the Houst 15 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyre McCants) to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 18
OPP 25
+7
71.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 7 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+4
72.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+6
71.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+5
69.7%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.6%
Quinton Flowers 3 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
77.7%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+12
77.4%
Kyle Postma run for 12 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
76.7%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
76.9%
Kyle Postma run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-1
77.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
79.2%
Dane Roy punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
81.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
81.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 12 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
82.3%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Austin Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+6
81.2%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling run for 6 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
80.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+2
79.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 41 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 2 yds to the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 0:5922% → 46%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
78.3%
Mulbah Car run for 8 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+16
76.4%
Mulbah Car run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
50
+46
75.3%
Mulbah Car run for 46 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.4%
Mulbah Car 4 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.3%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
64.5%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
63.4%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Ed Oliver for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
61.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 53 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 7 yds to the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2641% → 40%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
59.4%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-4
60.1%
D'Eriq King sacked by Deadrin Senat and Kevin Bronson for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+13
61.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 13 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+9
59.9%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 9 yds to the SFla 46 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (Nate Ferguson) to the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
63.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 15
OWN 11
0
62.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 15
OWN 11
0
60.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell Wilcox, broken up by Khalil WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 15
OWN 11
+47
59.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 48 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
55.4%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+6
54.4%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
53.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney Lark, broken up by Mike HamptonSimilar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
53.9%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+8
55.4%
Mulbah Car run for 8 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 1
OPP 37
-2
56.6%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:4464% → 89%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
64.2%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+5
63.5%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+17
64.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 17 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+38
67.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 38 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
68.5%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.1%
Quinton Flowers 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0717% → 52%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.0%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
83.2%
Mulbah Car run for 14 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
81.6%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
81.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Davion Mitchell for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+10
82.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
50
-1
79.4%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+44
81.0%
D'Eriq King run for 44 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
77.3%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
77.3%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.6%
D'Eriq King 3 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:3460% → 89%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
59.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+8
60.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
61.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 20 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
65.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
65.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+16
64.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 16 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
66.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Billy Atterbury) to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+5
65.9%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
68.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+4
66.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
88.7%
Emilio Nadelman 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 1:3530% → 91%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
70.0%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 14
OWN 47
0
74.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney Lark, broken up by Mike LoveSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 14
OWN 47
-10
75.9%
D'Eriq King sacked by Deadrin Senat for a loss of 10 yards to the Houst 37 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 24
OWN 37
+30
83.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 30 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
71.4%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+6
70.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
70.7%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
71.4%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+20
8.7%
D'Eriq King 20 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
17.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+38
15.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 38 yds to the SOUFLA 39 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, clipping ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:11
D'Eriq King 20 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)
-62.7
TD · Q4 6:20
D'Eriq King 3 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)
-29.7
FG · Q4 1:46
Emilio Nadelman 30 Yd Field Goal
+22.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com