Try the model
ECU

East Carolina 41 at UConn 38

CONN
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2017 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:29 · Brett Graham punt for 34 yds, downed at the ECaro 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−9.0Pregame prior+7.6Score differential−4.1Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:50: Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +15.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:20: Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +14.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:00: Hussein Howe run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +15.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:54: Arkeel Newsome run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +16.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:48: Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 79 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +27.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:04CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:20CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:55ECU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.7%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:12ECU 4th & 10 at CONN 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−4.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:25CONN 4th & 5 at ECU 46, down 17
    Close callPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:51ECU 4th & 7 at CONN 9, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−8.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:52CONN 4th & 1 at ECU 1, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:13ECU 4th & 5 at CONN 45, up 13
    Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:29CONN 4th & 3 at ECU 49, down 13
    Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:39ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 40, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:50CONN 4th & 3 at ECU 3, down 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:07ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−3.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:07CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:07ECU 4th & 5 at CONN 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−7.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:34ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 48, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:14ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:52CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:50ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:46ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:52CONN Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:50ECU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:20CONN Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:00ECU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:54CONN Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:48CONN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5065% → 65%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.0%
Kevin Mensah run for 7 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-4
65.0%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Alex Turner for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 28Similar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
64.9%
Brett Graham punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:4135% → 37%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
64.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
64.8%
Davon Grayson run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
50
-1
64.7%
Derrell Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
64.7%
Derrell Scott run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 10
50
+22
64.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 22 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
64.4%
Hussein Howe run for 7 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
64.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the UConn 20Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
64.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
62.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 17 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1563% → 66%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.1%
Keyion Dixon run for 11 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
63.2%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 31Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
62.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+22
62.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 22 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
63.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+45
65.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 45 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5136% → 40%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
64.2%
Tyshon Dye run for 5 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
64.1%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Junior Joseph for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+9
64.4%
Trevon Brown run for 9 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
64.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
50
+3
63.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+23
63.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Hussein Howe for 23 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
59.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 24 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass intercepted Korrin Wiggins return for no gain to the UConn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:5140% → 45%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
59.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 7 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+10
59.6%
Sirk, Thomas pass incomplete, PENALTY UCONN holding 10 yards to the UCONN19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
59.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 5 yds to the UConn 14Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+6
59.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 6 yds to the UConn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
59.0%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the UConn 6Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
54.6%
Derrell Scott run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1555% → 55%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.3%
Keyion Dixon run for 7 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
55.5%
Nate Hopkins run for 2 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
55.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for no gain to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
54.7%
Brett Graham punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 3:5847% → 55%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
53.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for no gain to the ECaro 24Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
53.1%
Trevon Brown run for 7 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+10
52.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 10 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
51.6%
Darius Pinnix run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
51.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
50.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 1
50
+2
51.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
50.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 7 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+12
49.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 12 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
48.9%
Darius Pinnix run for no gain to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
48.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
48.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
45.3%
Jake Verity 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:3447% → 46%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
46.7%
Kevin Mensah run for 29 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
47.9%
Kevin Mensah run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 9
50
+4
47.3%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 4 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
46.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+18
46.4%
Brett Graham punt for 33 yds CONNECTICUT Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 5:1958% → 70%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
41.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+13
41.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 13 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
40.0%
Tyshon Dye run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+13
39.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 13 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
38.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+12
37.8%
Tyshon Dye run for 12 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
37.8%
Tyshon Dye run for 1 yd to the UConn 27Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+15
37.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 15 yds to the UConn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
35.9%
Hussein Howe run for 1 yd to the UConn 11Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+2
34.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 2 yds to the UConn 9Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
34.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
30.4%
Jake Verity 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:5034% → 44%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
34.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 10 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
34.4%
Kevin Mensah run for 2 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
33.9%
Shirreffs, Bryant pass incomplete, PENALTY EASTCRLINA offside 5 yards to the UCONN42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
34.6%
Kevin Mensah run for 2 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
33.9%
Nate Hopkins run for 4 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
33.7%
Nate Hopkins run for 4 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-2
33.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Kevin Mensah for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 8
50
+8
32.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Quayvon Skanes for 8 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+18
32.6%
Kevin Mensah run for 18 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
32.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
34.1%
Kevin Mensah run for 3 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
33.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.9%
Nate Hopkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:3163% → 64%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.6%
Hussein Howe run for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
36.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
50
+5
34.5%
Quay Johnson run for 5 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
34.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
34.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
35.6%
Austin Barnes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quayvon Skanes at the UConn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:3440% → 42%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+37
40.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 37 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
42.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
42.2%
Shirreffs, Bryant pass incomplete, PENALTY EASTCRLINA offside 5 yards to the UCONN49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
43.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
43.2%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
42.1%
Brett Graham punt for 34 yds, downed at the ECaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
34.7%
Derrell Scott run for 5 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
23.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:0926% → 40%
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.1%
Kevin Mensah run for 1 yd to the UConn 26Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
25.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 19 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
29.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 21 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
30.2%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+5
30.3%
Kevin Mensah run for 5 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
29.7%
Kevin Mensah run for 6 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
25.1%
Kevin Mensah run for 2 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
24.2%
Nate Hopkins run for 4 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
24.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
39.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0168% → 86%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
32.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 46 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
29.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Hussein Howe for 6 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+9
29.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 9 yds to the UConn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
14.0%
Hussein Howe run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4120% → 37%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.7%
Donovan Williams run for no gain to the UConn 25Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
18.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 23 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
19.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 7 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+12
19.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 12 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
20.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Quayvon Skanes for 25 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
36.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 4:0772% → 78%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
27.3%
Tyshon Dye run for 3 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
27.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
25.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 7 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 3
50
-12
21.5%
Tyshon Dye run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-5
23.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 20
OWN 30
-10
23.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 20Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 30
OWN 20
+5
23.0%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 25
OWN 25
+15
23.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Hussein Howe for 15 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+10
22.3%
Austin Barnes punt for 50 yds , Quayvon Skanes returns for 10 yds to the UConn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20FG
14 plays · 77 yds · 3:3226% → 30%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
26.4%
Kevin Mensah run for 5 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
26.7%
Kevin Mensah run for 9 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
26.6%
Kevin Mensah run for 1 yd to the UConn 35Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+21
25.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 21 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
27.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 1 yd to the ECaro 43Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
27.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+15
25.1%
Shirreffs, Bryant pass incomplete, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCONN.Similar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
28.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 5 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+16
28.1%
Nate Hopkins run for 16 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
28.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
28.2%
Nate Hopkins run for 1 yd to the ECaro 3Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
26.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
30.0%
Michael Tarbutt 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3572% → 70%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.3%
Derrell Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
29.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
29.9%
Austin Barnes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quayvon Skanes at the UConn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5328% → 26%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
28.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
28.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+7
26.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 7 yds to the UConn 39Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
26.2%
Brett Graham punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23MISSED FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 7:4972% → 87%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
28.1%
Derrell Scott run for 3 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
27.5%
Derrell Scott run for 6 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
27.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
23.1%
Derrell Scott run for 12 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
21.2%
Darius Pinnix run for 1 yd to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
20.9%
Darius Pinnix run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
50
+4
17.9%
Darius Pinnix run for 4 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
15.3%
Darius Pinnix run for 1 yd to the UConn 45Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
15.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Malik Gray for 7 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
14.5%
Derrell Scott run for no gain to the UConn 38Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
14.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 12 yds to the UConn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
13.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the UConn 24Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+3
11.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
10.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
12.7%
Jake Verity 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:1413% → 40%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
12.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+79
40.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 79 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:5469% → 78%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
30.7%
Derrell Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
30.8%
Derrell Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+16
30.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 16 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
24.4%
Derrell Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
23.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 7 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
22.2%
Derrell Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
22.4%
Austin Barnes punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UConn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 76 yds · 2:2933% → 23%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
32.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
31.8%
Kevin Mensah run for 9 yds to the UConn 18Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+7
30.2%
Kevin Mensah run for 7 yds to the UConn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
30.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 23Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
28.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-10
25.6%
Shirreffs, Bryant pass complete to Donaldson, Mason for 21 yards to the UCONN44, PENALTY UCONN holding 10 yards to the UCONN13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+35
20.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Aaron McLean for 35 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
26.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 5 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+23
34.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Quayvon Skanes for 8 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
37.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 7 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
30.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 2 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+33
22.7%
Michael Tarbutt 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:48
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 79 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)
+27.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22.7
TD · Q3 8:54
Arkeel Newsome run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK)
+16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com