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UCF

UCF 31 at SMU 24

SMU
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:44 · Jamie Sackville punt for 45 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior−28.8Home team on offense+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:19: Jordan Wyatt 36 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +7.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:35: Adrian Killins Jr. 34 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +7.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:08: Josh Williams 45 Yd Field Goal — SMU win probability +5.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:43: Adrian Killins Jr. 64 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +12.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:17: Xavier Jones 2 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +17.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:21UCF 4th & 2 at SMU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19UCF 4th & 1 at SMU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:44SMU 4th & 12 at UCF 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:55UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:56SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:55SMU 4th & 9 at UCF 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:07UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:57SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 49, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:47UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:46SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:12SMU 4th & 10 at UCF 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:15SMU 4th & 2 at UCF 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−3.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:08SMU 4th & 9 at UCF 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:21SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:18UCF 4th & 2 at SMU 2, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−17.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:33SMU 4th & 11 at UCF 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:37UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:10SMU 4th & 3 at UCF 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    16.9%−4.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−6.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:55UCF 4th & 19 at SMU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:24SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:03SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:16UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:58UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:19SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:35UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:43UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:17SMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 5:2682% → 79%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
18.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+29
18.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 29 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
18.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
19.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
19.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
19.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
19.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+2
19.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+5
20.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 5 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
20.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-5
20.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+12
20.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 12 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 1
OPP 11
-3
21.0%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
23.1%
James Proche 86 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4977% → 76%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.0%
UCF Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
23.2%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
23.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
23.9%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Mikial Onu return for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2124% → 25%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
24.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+5
24.9%
Ben Hicks run for 5 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
25.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 7
OPP 40
-5
24.8%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Christian Davis) to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
24.7%
Jamie Sackville punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4475% → 74%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
25.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
25.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
26.0%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4926% → 26%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
25.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+8
26.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
26.4%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
26.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 59 yds, downed at the UCF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
6 plays · 95 yds · 1:2473% → 77%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+14
26.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 14 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
26.8%
Taj McGowan run for 10 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+46
27.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 46 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
25.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 5 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+11
26.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 11 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
23.1%
McKenzie Milton 9 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:1025% → 25%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
24.7%
Xavier Jones run for 27 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
25.8%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
26.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
26.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
25.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:4875% → 73%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
25.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Marlon Williams) to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+6
25.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 6 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
25.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 9 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
25.6%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Tyeson Neals for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
25.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
26.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
26.9%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:3728% → 30%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
28.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
28.5%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 3
50
+14
28.7%
Braeden West run for 14 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
29.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 6 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+12
29.7%
Braeden West run for 12 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
29.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
30.6%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+9
30.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds Ke'Mon Freeman fumbled, forced by Tre Neal, recovered by UCF Kyle Gibson in end zoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:1972% → 77%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
27.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+80
23.3%
Gabriel Davis 80 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:4823% → 23%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
23.1%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
23.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
23.0%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Hayden Howerton) to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
22.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 14 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
24.2%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
24.9%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
24.7%
Ben Hicks run for no gain to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
23.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13INT TD
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:1177% → 66%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
23.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
23.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+15
24.0%
Milton, McKenzie pass incomplete to Smith, Tre'Quan, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Wyatt, Jordan) 15 yards to the UCF23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
22.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
22.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+36
29.4%
Jordan Wyatt 36 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
34.2%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1371% → 69%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.0%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
28.8%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
30.2%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Dredrick Snelson) to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
30.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
31.5%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 41 yds, downed at the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4434% → 34%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
33.5%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
34.6%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
34.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
34.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 0:5069% → 80%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
31.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+23
31.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 23 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
29.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 26 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
27.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
20.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. 34 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 2:1123% → 23%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
22.8%
Braeden West run for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
23.4%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
23.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+18
22.8%
Ben Hicks run for 18 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
25.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+7
25.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 7 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
27.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
27.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-5
25.6%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
25.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
23.1%
Josh Williams 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:0678% → 81%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
21.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 12 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
19.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 21 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
19.4%
Matthew Wright 54 yd FG RETURNED , Rodney Clemons return for 6 yds to the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19FG
18 plays · 51 yds · 5:3224% → 34%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
23.6%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+8
23.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 8 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
24.2%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+6
24.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 6 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
25.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
25.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
26.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+1
26.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+2
25.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 2 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
28.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
28.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+14
27.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 14 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
30.4%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
30.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman pass incomplete to Ben HicksSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
28.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
33.9%
Josh Williams 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1469% → 82%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
30.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
17.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. 64 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5420% → 19%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
19.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
19.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
18.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
18.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:5482% → 84%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
18.1%
Otis Anderson run for 14 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
16.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+14
16.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 14 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
16.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+10
15.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 10 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
16.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+12
16.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 12 yds Jordan Akins fumbled, forced by Jordan Wyatt, recovered by SMU Rodney ClemonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 3:3818% → 37%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
17.8%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 8Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
17.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+52
16.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 52 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
20.2%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+7
20.2%
Ben Hicks run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
20.4%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
19.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ryan Becker for 7 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
19.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+17
18.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 17 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+2
21.1%
Hicks, Ben pass incomplete to Quinn, Trey, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Clarke, Nevelle) 2 yards to the UCF2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
19.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.2%
Xavier Jones 2 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24FG
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:5373% → 81%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+63
27.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 63 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
23.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
23.3%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
24.0%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
19.1%
Matthew Wright 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:2722% → 21%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.2%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
23.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
23.0%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
23.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 6 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
25.7%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
50
+10
26.5%
Xavier Jones run for 10 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
25.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
25.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
23.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
21.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3882% → 80%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
18.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
18.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+12
19.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 12 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
17.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
17.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
18.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
19.8%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:1021% → 21%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
21.0%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+25
19.7%
Ben Hicks run for 25 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
24.0%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
23.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-1
23.5%
Ben Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
21.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5589% → 89%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
11.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 25 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
10.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-2
9.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-12
9.4%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Delontae Scott for a loss of 12 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 19
OPP 46
0
11.0%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:1618% → 12%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
18.2%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
16.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 4 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
13.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
13.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
13.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
12.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
12.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:1496% → 96%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 16
OPP 40
-3
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 19
OPP 43
-4
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:17
Xavier Jones 2 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)
+17.5
TD · Q3 8:43
Adrian Killins Jr. 64 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)
-12.9
TD · Q2 2:35
Adrian Killins Jr. 34 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com