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MEM

Memphis 41 at Tulsa 14

TLSA
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2017 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:04 · Nick Jacobs punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tulsa 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior−30.8Home team on offense−1.4Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:48: Luke Skipper 10 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +2.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:44: Tony Pollard 59 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +2.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:40: Chad President 7 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +4.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:42: Anthony Miller 18 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +4.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:31: Patrick Taylor Jr. 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +9.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 10 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:14TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:03TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:04MEM 4th & 6 at TLSA 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.5%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:48TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:28TLSA 4th & 10 at MEM 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:37MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:31MEM 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−10.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:39TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:22MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:47TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:05MEM 4th & 2 at TLSA 17, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%−1.0
    80% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−7.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:55TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:45TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:25TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:38MEM 4th & 3 at TLSA 13, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:41TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 22, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:51MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 20, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:46MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:48TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:44MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:40TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:42MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:31MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:43MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3612% → 13%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
12.1%
Luke Skipper run for no gain to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
12.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-5
12.5%
TULSA Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
12.7%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
12.7%
Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds , John Williams returns for no gain to the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2387% → 87%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
12.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
13.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
13.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
13.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Nigel Carter at the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1913% → 14%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
13.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
13.3%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+21
13.3%
Luke Skipper run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
13.6%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Nigel Carter for 4 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
14.0%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Nigel Carter for 4 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
14.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-5
14.3%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
14.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 45 yds, downed at the Memph 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:1286% → 86%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
14.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the Memph 7Similar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+21
14.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 21 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
14.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 13 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
14.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
14.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+6
15.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+35
15.1%
Anthony Miller pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 35 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
15.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+17
13.8%
Darrell Henderson 17 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5TD
13 plays · 95 yds · 3:4714% → 19%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
14.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 7 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+5
14.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 5 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
14.4%
TULSA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+30
14.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 30 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
15.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
15.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Nigel Carter for 6 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
15.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
15.7%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 11 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
16.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+23
15.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 23 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
16.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
19.2%
Luke Skipper 10 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5482% → 85%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
17.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 7 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
14.9%
Tony Pollard 59 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:4916% → 22%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
15.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
16.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
16.7%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
16.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 44
-2
16.4%
Luke Skipper sacked by Christian Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+44
16.5%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 44 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
17.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
18.2%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Chris Minter for 5 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
22.6%
Chad President 7 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-5
21.5%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:3079% → 79%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
20.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 12 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
20.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 14 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
19.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
20.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
20.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
21.4%
Nick Jacobs punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tulsa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1122% → 22%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
22.4%
Chad President run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+1
22.7%
Rowdy Simon run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
22.1%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 5
OWN 9
+5
22.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 55 yds , John Williams returns for 5 yds to the Memph 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0179% → 84%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
21.3%
Tony Pollard run for 3 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+9
21.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 9 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
21.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
21.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+10
21.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 10 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
20.9%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
20.9%
Tony Pollard run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
16.0%
Anthony Miller 18 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0718% → 18%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
17.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 27 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
19.7%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 2 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-2
20.0%
Luke Skipper run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
19.0%
Luke Skipper run for no gain to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
18.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by John Williams at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:3782% → 81%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
18.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+5
18.6%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+11
18.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 11 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
17.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 2 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-5
17.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+6
18.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 6 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
18.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
18.8%
Nick Jacobs punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2919% → 20%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
19.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 2 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
19.5%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
20.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
20.7%
Luke Skipper sacked by Tim Hart for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+9
19.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
23 plays · 90 yds · 5:5982% → 90%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
18.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+10
18.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 10 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
18.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
18.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 9 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+12
18.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Mechane Slade for 12 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
17.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+18
18.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
17.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+12
17.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 12 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
16.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 15
OPP 31
0
17.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Darrell HendersonSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+6
17.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+5
17.6%
TULSA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+6
17.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
17.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+7
17.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+10
17.2%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
17.3%
Anthony Miller run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.8%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3512% → 11%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
11.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-9
12.0%
Luke Skipper pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33 TULSA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 14
OWN 23
0
11.3%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+3
11.1%
Luke Skipper run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
11.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 36 yds, downed at the Memph 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0391% → 91%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
8.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 4 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-5
8.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
8.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+3
9.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
9.3%
Nick Jacobs punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1311% → 11%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
10.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
11.0%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
10.8%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
10.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 48 yds, downed at the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:3991% → 93%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
8.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
8.9%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+38
8.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 38 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
7.9%
Riley Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
7.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
7.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+33
6.7%
Riley Patterson 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:579% → 9%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
9.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
9.0%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
8.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 41 yds, downed at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:0695% → 99%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
5.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 3 yds to the Memph 33 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 17
OWN 23
+7
5.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 7 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
5.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
5.0%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
4.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
4.5%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
4.1%
Tony Pollard run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
4.1%
Tony Pollard run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+9
4.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 9 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
3.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
3.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+12
3.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 12 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
3.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
0.9%
Damonte Coxie 9 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:542% → 2%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
1.8%
Luke Skipper sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+10
1.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+2
1.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+4
1.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.7%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
1.6%
Rowdy Simon run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
1.6%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
1.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:3899% → 100%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
0.8%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+53
0.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 53 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
0.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+6
0.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
0.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
0.2%
Riley Patterson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
0.2%
Rowdy Simon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
0.2%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
0.2%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
0.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 61 yds, downed at the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
0.2%
David Moore run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 12Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+2
0.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 13
OWN 14
+6
0.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 32 yds, downed at the Tulsa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25INT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
0.2%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 7 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
0.2%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 3 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
0.2%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 8 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+8
0.2%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 8 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
0.2%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
0.2%
Luke Skipper pass intercepted Carlito Gonzalez return for 6 yds to the Memph 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 14
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:31
Patrick Taylor Jr. 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)
-9.2
TD · Q2 6:42
Anthony Miller 18 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick)
-4.9
TD · Q2 12:40
Chad President 7 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com