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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreNAVY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:51 · Bennett Moehring 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:35: Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +7.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:22: Frank Nutile pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 34 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +15.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:05: Malcolm Perry pass complete to Zach Abey for 5 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:57: Frank Nutile pass complete to Jake Robinson for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +12.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:51: Garret Lewis pass complete to Brandon Colon for 16 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring PAT BLOCKED) — NAVY win probability +4.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 0 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 11:18TEM 4th & 4 at NAVY 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snapGo for it36.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call36.4%−<0.193% to makePunt35.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:51NAVY 4th & 4 at TEM 30, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snapGo for it62.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call62.2%−0.156% to makePunt62.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:35NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt55.7%−0.8average punt
- Q1 0:41NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snapGo for it54.5%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.8%average punt
- Q2 4:05NAVY 4th & 2 at TEM 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.6%57% to convertField goal34.6%−2.030% to makePunt34.9%−1.7average punt
- Q2 0:00NAVY 4th & 7 at TEM 7, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snapGo for it30.2%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call30.4%91% to makePunt24.1%−6.3average punt
- Q3 12:25NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 19, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snapGo for it29.6%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.2%average punt
- Q4 13:27NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 48, down 18Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.8%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.3%average punt
- Q4 10:27TEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 16, up 18Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.2%71% to convertField goalTheir call95.2%−1.081% to makePunt92.3%−3.9average punt
- Q4 8:21NAVY 4th & 14 at TEM 48, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.5%average punt
- Q4 4:50TEM 4th & 9 at NAVY 41, up 15Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.4%32% to convertField goal96.1%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call96.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:12NAVY 4th & 8 at TEM 8, down 15Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%−<0.126% to convertField goal3.1%90% to makePunt2.1%−1.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 5:31TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.5%97% to makeGo for two41.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:35TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.5%97% to makeGo for two59.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:22TEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.9%97% to makeGo for two82.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 6:05NAVY Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.5%97% to makeGo for two22.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:57TEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.2%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:51NAVY Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call4.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two4.2%45% to convert
- Q4 2:12NAVY Touchdown, down 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call5.2%−0.597% to makeGo for two5.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1FG12 plays · 73 yds · 3:1236% → 37%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
35.6%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 13 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
36.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 13 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+6
36.8%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 6 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FG6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0163% → 63%
Q1 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-6
37.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Temp 26 NAVY Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Temp 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD9 plays · 84 yds · 2:5238% → 42%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+24
37.9%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 24 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
38.6%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 7 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+6
39.0%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 6 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
39.9%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+40
43.0%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 40 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT12 plays · 26 yds · 4:1657% → 55%
Q1 4:42
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+5
42.6%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5TD13 plays · 88 yds · 5:5046% → 61%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
45.8%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 7 yds to the Temp 19Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
47.1%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Randle Jones for 3 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+14
47.3%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 14 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+15
49.8%
Nutile, Frank pass incomplete, PENALTY NAVY pass interference 15 yards to the NAVY38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE.Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+19
52.6%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 19 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
60.5%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6END OF HALF25 plays · 68 yds · 9:1042% → 32%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
64.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 8 yds to the Temp 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1533% → 30%
Q3 12:25
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+5
70.3%
Owen White punt for 46 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for 5 yds to the Temp 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8TD4 plays · 60 yds · 0:4371% → 86%
Q3 11:30
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+19
70.7%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Randle Jones for 4 yds to the TEMPLE 49 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
86.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 34 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4419% → 31%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
81.3%
Zach Abey sacked by Freddie Booth-Lloyd for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+22
84.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 22 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+14
85.1%
Zach Abey run for 14 yds to the Temp 29 Zach Abey fumbled, recovered by NavySimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
84.1%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 26 yds to the Temp 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.3%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Zach Abey for 5 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD13 plays · 81 yds · 4:4375% → 96%
Q3 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+12
75.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 12 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
77.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 16 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
79.6%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Branden Mack for 8 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+33
81.0%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 33 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.0%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Jake Robinson for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS9 plays · 28 yds · 1:538% → 7%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
91.9%
Zach Abey pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 18 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
92.5%
Zach Abey sacked by Isaiah Graham-Mobley for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+6
93.3%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 6 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 9
OWN 48
-10
92.9%
Zach Abey sacked by Sharif Finch for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12FG8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4598% → 99%
NAVYDrive 13INT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:392% → 1%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
98.3%
Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 31 yds to the Temp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
98.2%
Zach Abey sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
98.6%
Zach Abey pass intercepted Delvon Randall return for no gain to the Temp 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14INT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:32100% → 100%
NAVYDrive 15TD4 plays · 37 yds · 0:571% → 6%
TEMDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 0:4099% → 99%
Q4 4:50
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
99.3%
Alex Starzyk punt for 21 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD11 plays · 80 yds · 2:281% → 6%
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+48
98.9%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 48 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
98.6%
Garret Lewis sacked by Sharif Finch for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 34Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+8
98.7%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Josh Brown for 8 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
98.6%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 14 yds to the Temp 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.2%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 8 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18END OF GAME4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:22
Frank Nutile pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 34 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
+15.7
TD · Q3 0:57
Frank Nutile pass complete to Jake Robinson for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
+12.6
TD · Q3 6:05
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Zach Abey for 5 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-12.5