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ECU

East Carolina 27 at Houston 52

HOU
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:48 · Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the Houst 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:20: D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 5 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +1.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:40: Jake Verity 22 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +1.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:03: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +4.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:52: D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 75 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +6.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:09: D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 62 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:48ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:02ECU 4th & 3 at HOU 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:40ECU 4th & 4 at HOU 5, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:24HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00ECU 4th & 16 at HOU 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ECU 4th & 3 at HOU 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:09ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:22HOU 4th & 13 at ECU 27, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:26ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 49, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:30ECU 4th & 9 at HOU 35, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:30HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 31, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:48HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:02HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:20HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:19HOU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:24ECU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:03ECU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:52HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:09HOU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:26HOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:48ECU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1293% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.3%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+15
93.3%
Duke Catalon run for 15 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
93.3%
Duke Catalon run for 6 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
93.3%
Duke Catalon run for 7 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
93.3%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
93.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 7 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+19
93.3%
Mulbah Car run for 19 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
93.3%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.9%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
92.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 4 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
92.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
92.8%
Austin Barnes punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
92.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 2 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-10
92.6%
CATALON, Duke rush right for 5 yards to the HOU37 (WILLIAMS, Jrdn), PENALTY HOU illegal block (DUNBAR, Steven) 10 yards to the HOU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 18
OWN 22
0
92.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+5
92.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
92.5%
Dane Roy punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.4%
Darius Pinnix run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
92.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 1 yd to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+11
92.5%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Terrell Williams return for 11 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
93.4%
Duke Catalon run for 22 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
93.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for 6 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
92.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
92.9%
Quay Johnson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 6
50
+3
92.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 3 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
92.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
92.9%
Austin Barnes punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:3893% → 95%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+41
93.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 41 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
93.4%
KING, D'Eriq deep pass incomplete to DUNBAR, Steven, PENALTY ECU holding (GORE, Colby) 10 yards to the ECU30, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
93.4%
D'Eriq King run for 11 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
93.4%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
93.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 3 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+15
93.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
93.4%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 2Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
93.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Duke Catalon) to the ECaro 7Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
93.4%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the ECaro 5Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 5 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8FG
20 plays · 70 yds · 7:405% → 6%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
94.7%
Devin Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
94.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 16 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
95.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Davon Grayson) to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+6
95.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for 6 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
95.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Alexander MyresSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+9
95.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 9 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
94.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+3
95.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+3
95.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 3 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+10
95.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 10 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
94.7%
BROWN, Trevon rush left for 3 yards to the HOU30 (DAVIS, Garrett;HINES, D'Juan), PENALTY ECU illegal formation 5 yards to the HOU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
95.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+16
95.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for 16 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
94.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 11 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
94.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 5 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
94.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 4 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-3
94.8%
Thomas Sirk run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 5Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
93.7%
Jake Verity 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2194% → 96%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
94.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 32 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
94.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 39 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.5%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.5%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:556% → 7%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
94.2%
Derrell Scott run for 6 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
93.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Derrell ScottSimilar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+12
93.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 12 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
93.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 10 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
92.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 14 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
93.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 34 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
94.5%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
94.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
94.2%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12MISSED FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 4:206% → 3%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
93.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 9 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+6
93.5%
Darius Pinnix run for 6 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
93.7%
Darius Pinnix run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+21
93.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 21 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-11
93.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay Johnson, broken up by Isaiah Johnson EAST CAROLINA Penalty, intentional grounding (Gardner Minshew) to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 21
OPP 46
+16
93.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for 16 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+6
93.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for 6 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
93.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+6
93.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for 6 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
93.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 3 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
93.2%
Darius Pinnix run for 5 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-3
93.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 11Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-8
95.1%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Leroy Godfrey for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 19
+37
97.0%
Jake Verity 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:576% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
94.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 11 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
94.1%
Darius Pinnix run for 5 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
93.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 6 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
94.0%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 7 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
93.6%
Darius Pinnix run for 4 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
93.9%
Darius Pinnix run for no gain to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+7
94.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 7 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+6
93.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for 6 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
93.3%
Davon Grayson run for 4 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+10
93.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 10 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
93.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
93.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 6 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
88.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
96.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 75 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
50
+9
95.0%
Devin Anderson run for 9 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+12
94.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tahj Deans for 12 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
94.4%
Devin Anderson run for 1 yd to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+14
94.6%
MINSHEW, Grdnr overthrown pass incomplete to DEANS, Tahj, PENALTY HOU personal foul (WILLIAMS, Terre) 14 yards to the HOU14, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
94.4%
MINSHEW, Grdnr overthrown pass incomplete to BROWN, Trevon, PENALTY ECU holding (SANDIFER, Justn) 10 yards to the HOU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+6
94.8%
Devin Anderson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 35 Devin Anderson fumbled, recovered by Houst Emeke Egbule , return for 6 yds to the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4297% → 99%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.6%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+62
99.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 62 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
98.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+11
98.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 11 yds Quay Johnson fumbled, forced by Brandon McDowell, recovered by ECaro Quay Johnson for a 1ST down , return for no gain to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
98.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Stephen BaggettSimilar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
98.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
98.7%
Austin Barnes punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:5399% → 100%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+35
99.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 35 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.4%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+8
99.4%
Duke Catalon run for 8 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+12
99.3%
Duke Catalon run for 12 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
99.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 13
OPP 27
0
99.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
99.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Romello BrookerSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+44
99.8%
Caden Novikoff 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19INT TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.8%
Tyshon Dye run for 5 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
99.8%
Gardner Minshew run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
99.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 8 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
99.8%
Gardner Minshew run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 39 Gardner Minshew fumbled, recovered by ECaro Gardner MinshewSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Tyshon Dye run for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+20
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 20 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Stephen BaggettSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 7 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+74
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass intercepted for a TD Brandon McDowell return for 74 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
13 plays · 25 yds · 4:560% → 0%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
Tyshon Dye run for 1 yd to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tahj Deans for 2 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for 8 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 4 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
99.9%
MINSHEW, Grdnr deep pass complete to DEANS, Tahj for 36 yards to the HOU0, clock 08:57, PENALTY ECU illegal formation 5 yards to the HOU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Hussein Howe run for 2 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Hussein Howe for 4 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Tahj DeansSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+52
99.9%
Jake Verity 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Davion Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Davion Mitchell run for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:170% → 0%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 9 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
99.9%
Darius Pinnix run for 2 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+23
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 23 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 6 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Mydreon Vines for 5 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tahj Deans for 13 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Anthony WatleySimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Quay Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.8%
Patrick Carr run for 7 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.8%
Patrick Carr run for 5 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.8%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the Houst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:52
D'Eriq King pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 75 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q3 9:03
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
-4.5
TD · Q3 6:09
D'Eriq King pass complete to Linell Bonner for 62 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com