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CIN

Cincinnati 3 at South Florida 33

USF
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:55 · Jaelen Greene run for 4 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:56: Emilio Nadelman 28 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +1.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:24: Darius Tice run for 11 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +4.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:00: Auggie Sanchez 65 Yd Interception Return (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 15:00: SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — CIN win probability +4.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:56: Emilio Nadelman 24 Yd Field Goal — USF win probability +0.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 11CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 21 at CIN 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43USF 4th & 17 at CIN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:43CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:19USF 4th & 9 at USF 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:04CIN 4th & 8 at USF 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:56USF 4th & 2 at CIN 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:44CIN 4th & 18 at USF 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:12USF 4th & 4 at CIN 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:12CIN 4th & 26 at CIN 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:07CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:56USF 4th & 21 at USF 21, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 11 at USF 37, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:20CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:43USF 4th & 1 at CIN 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−6.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:43CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, down 13
    Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:38USF 4th & 2 at USF 40, up 13
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:56USF 4th & 2 at CIN 8, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%−0.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−4.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:56CIN 4th & 5 at USF 23, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−3.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:51USF 4th & 3 at USF 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:29CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 41, down 13
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:34USF 4th & 6 at USF 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:24USF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:00USF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
93.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 17
0
93.3%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 17
0
93.3%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
93.3%
James Smith punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 3:3293% → 92%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
93.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 1 yd to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
92.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
93.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
93.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
93.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
93.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+20
93.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 20 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
93.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+4
93.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-6
93.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 12 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (Deangelo Antoine) to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 17
OPP 22
0
93.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 17
OPP 22
0
92.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
92.1%
Emilio Nadelman 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
92.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Deangelo Antoine) to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
92.2%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+2
92.2%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
92.2%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
92.3%
James Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
91.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 6 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-5
91.9%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
91.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
91.7%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Mike Boone at the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:198% → 10%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
91.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 15 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
91.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
50
0
91.4%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
50
+1
91.4%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+18
91.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 18 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
91.3%
Michael Warren II run for 16 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
91.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
90.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+7
90.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 7 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
90.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Deatrick NicholsSimilar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
90.1%
Ryan Jones 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:0890% → 90%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
90.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
90.6%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
90.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Deangelo Antoine) to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+6
90.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
90.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Deatrick NicholsSimilar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+33
90.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 18 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Marquis Smith) to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
90.8%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+12
91.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 12 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
91.0%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
91.0%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+1
90.8%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+28
89.8%
Emilio Nadelman 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:1210% → 11%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
89.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 20 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
89.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 13 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
89.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 4 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+8
89.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 8 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
88.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Greg Reaves) to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
88.8%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 13
OPP 17
0
88.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 13
OPP 17
-5
89.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 18
OPP 22
0
89.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 18
OPP 22
+39
88.8%
Ryan Jones 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:3289% → 90%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
88.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
88.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
88.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
88.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 11 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
89.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 11 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
89.3%
FLOWERS, Q rush for loss of 1 yard to the CIN44 (COPELAND, M.), PENALTY CIN face mask (COPELAND, M.) 15 yards to the CIN28, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
89.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
89.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
89.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
89.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
89.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 5Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
89.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 4Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
89.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
89.9%
Emilio Nadelman 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
89.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+13
89.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for 13 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
88.9%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
88.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for no gain to the Cincy 42 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-5
89.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
89.6%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 12 yards to the Cincy 25 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Cincy Hayden Moore , return for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 26
OWN 25
0
90.0%
James Smith punt for 35 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:4990% → 94%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
89.9%
Deangelo Antoine run for 12 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
90.0%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-15
90.0%
FLOWERS, Q rush for 4 yards to the CIN41, PENALTY USF illegal block (BLACK, Josh) 15 yards to the USF40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 22
OWN 40
+12
89.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 12 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+37
89.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for 37 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.8%
Darius Tice run for 11 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:177% → 7%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+9
92.7%
James Smith punt for 48 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 9 yds to the SFla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
92.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
92.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 6
OWN 36
-15
92.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, sideline interference (-15 Yards) to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 21
OWN 21
0
92.3%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mike Boone at the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13INT TD
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:338% → 3%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
92.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
92.4%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+12
92.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 12 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+5
92.3%
MOORE, Hayden pass complete to GEDDIS, Thomas for 8 yards to the CIN48 (HOGGINS, Ronnie), PENALTY USF offside defense (SENAT, Deadrin) 5 yards to the CIN45, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+65
96.7%
Auggie Sanchez 65 Yd Interception Return (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
91.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
92.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+6
92.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
92.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 14 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
92.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
92.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCants, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
92.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
92.0%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
91.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+14
91.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 14 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
91.4%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-3
91.6%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+6
92.1%
James Smith punt for 39 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 6 yds to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
17 plays · 59 yds · 6:0593% → 93%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
93.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.4%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
93.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 4 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
93.1%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
93.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+1
93.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+16
93.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 16 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
93.4%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
93.4%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+8
93.0%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
93.3%
TICE, Darius rush for 1 yard to the CIN4 (COPELAND, M.), PENALTY CIN offside defense 3 yards to the CIN2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Cincy 2Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.3%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.0%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Quinton Flowers 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
90.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
91.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Gerrid DoaksSimilar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
91.3%
James Smith punt for 50 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 3 yds to the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, broken up by Bryan WrightSimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
93.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 12 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
93.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
94.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
93.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
93.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 49 yds, downed at the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
91.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 17 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
91.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 9 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
90.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 4 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.7%
Hayden Moore sacked by Juwuan Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 32 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by SFla Juwuan Brown , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:2695% → 95%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
94.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 16 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
94.5%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+1
94.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
94.2%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+24
95.1%
Emilio Nadelman 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 45 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
92.2%
Ross Trail pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 7 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
91.5%
Ross Trail run for 13 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
90.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (David Niehaus) to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+9
92.4%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+10
90.9%
TRAIL, Ross pass incomplete to ROLLINS, Jerron, PENALTY USF pass interference (ABRAHAM, Devin) 10 yards to the USF39, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.6%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Jerron RollinsSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
90.7%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+10
91.0%
Ross Trail pass complete to Michael Warren II for 10 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
89.7%
Ross Trail pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 3 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
89.7%
Ross Trail run for 2 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
90.4%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to JJ PinckneySimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 23
-7
91.2%
Ross Trail sacked by Greg Reaves and Mike Love for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
96.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
96.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+6
96.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 6 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
96.0%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 52 yds, downed at the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:006% → 4%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
94.1%
Michael Warren II run for 15 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
93.8%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-5
93.1%
Ross Trail sacked by Kelvin Pinkney for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 11
OPP 0
+10
92.6%
Ross Trail pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 10 yds to the Cincy 35 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+5
96.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, offside defense (Mazzi Wilkins) to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.0%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Tyler CogswellSimilar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
96.0%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 1 yd to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
96.1%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
96.5%
James Smith punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Brett Kean run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
97.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 6 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
97.3%
Trevon Sands run for 6 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
97.5%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
97.5%
Trevon Sands run for no gain to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+1
97.4%
Chris Oladokun run for 1 yd to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
97.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
97.4%
Taylor Boose run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
97.2%
Ross Trail run for 9 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
97.1%
Taylor Boose run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
97.1%
Ross Trail run for 5 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
97.1%
Taylor Boose run for 3 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
97.1%
Jaelen Greene run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
97.1%
Jaelen Greene run for 4 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 15:00
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
-4.9
TD · Q2 2:24
Darius Tice run for 11 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q2 0:00
Auggie Sanchez 65 Yd Interception Return (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com