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TLSA

Tulsa 34 at SMU 38

SMU
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2017 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:52 · Thomas Bennett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+13.1Home team on offense−12.9Garbage-time factor−4.3Score differential−7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:49: Braeden West 75 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +7.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:47: Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 23 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +9.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:36: Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +21.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q3 1:08: Redford Jones 51 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +8.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:26: Xavier Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +23.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:16TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:39SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:16SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:49TLSA 4th & 4 at SMU 14, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:28SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:16TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:22SMU 4th & 6 at TLSA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−9.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:01TLSA 4th & 15 at SMU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:28SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:52TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−4.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:08TLSA 4th & 6 at SMU 34, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%−1.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:30TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:31SMU 4th & 12 at TLSA 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−15.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:13SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 29, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.0 ptsPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−5.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:39TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.2%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:01TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:11SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:02TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:01TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:49SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:53TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:47SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:36SMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:26SMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3017% → 18%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
82.8%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
82.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+9
82.6%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-4
82.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 53 yds , Trey Quinn returns for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2982% → 82%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
82.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
82.3%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 9
-4
82.0%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 5Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 13
OWN 5
0
81.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 37 yds, downed at the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:2918% → 19%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
81.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
81.5%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+41
80.6%
Nigel Carter 41 Yd pass from Luke Skipper (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-15
80.8%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nigel Carter) to the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3481% → 81%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
81.0%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
80.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+4
80.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
80.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
80.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 10 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
80.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 5 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+5
80.0%
D.J. Gillins run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
79.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.2%
Trey Quinn 7 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:5820% → 25%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
80.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-1
80.1%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+7
80.2%
Luke Skipper run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
79.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+49
79.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 49 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
78.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+3
78.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
78.6%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 2 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
74.7%
Shamari Brooks 4 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3976% → 74%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
75.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
75.2%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
73.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, downed at the Tulsa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:0326% → 38%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
73.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+34
73.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 34 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
72.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 17 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
71.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
71.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+8
70.2%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Nigel Carter for 8 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
69.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
69.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
62.3%
Chad President 8 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
70.7%
Braeden West 75 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 2:4131% → 34%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
69.0%
Luke Skipper run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
68.4%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+15
69.0%
Bennett, Thomas punt 40 yards to the SMU21, fair catch by Quinn, Trey, PENALTY SMU unsportsmanlike conduct (Becker, Ryan) 15 yards to the SMU46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
66.9%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Shelby Walker) to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
66.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
65.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
65.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
65.7%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Chris MinterSimilar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
66.4%
Redford Jones 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:0768% → 65%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
67.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 24 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
69.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
68.3%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
66.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
65.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:1535% → 47%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
65.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+24
65.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 24 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
62.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
61.9%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+32
62.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 32 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
60.0%
Skipper, Luke pass incomplete to Stewart, Josh, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Wyatt, Jordan) 15 yards to the SMU13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
59.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the SMU 13Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
59.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
52.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 1:0354% → 67%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+61
53.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 61 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
57.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+23
66.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 23 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 2:2440% → 42%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Nigel Carter for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
58.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.3%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
58.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
56.7%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Nigel Carter for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
50
+1
55.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-5
55.7%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Willie Wright) to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-3
57.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
57.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 31 yds, downed at the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:1459% → 60%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+26
59.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 26 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
61.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
61.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
59.5%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:2359% → 59%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
58.6%
Xavier Jones run for 46 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
63.1%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-2
63.0%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
60.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 6
OPP 25
-3
58.7%
Ben Hicks sacked by Petera Wilson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:0946% → 50%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+60
54.5%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 60 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
51.6%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Justin Hobbs) to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
51.4%
Luke Skipper run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 12
OPP 29
0
51.5%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 12
OPP 29
-5
51.3%
TULSA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Chris Minter) to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+2
52.3%
Luke Skipper run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+49
50.1%
Redford Jones 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:2247% → 44%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
47.2%
Braeden West run for 14 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
47.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 13 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
47.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
47.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
46.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
44.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 46 yds, downed at the Tulsa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:2353% → 55%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
47.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+4
46.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+6
46.6%
Luke Skipper run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
45.3%
Chad President pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
45.2%
Chad President run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
44.8%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
45.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:1044% → 60%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
43.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+16
39.1%
Ben Hicks run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
42.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+36
43.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman pass complete to Trey Quinn for 28 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Allie Green IV) to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
42.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
60.2%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:2246% → 59%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+16
53.1%
Luke Skipper run for 16 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
50.3%
Keenen Johnson pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-6
50.2%
Luke Skipper sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+15
53.4%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
49.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
47.4%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
49.7%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+51
41.3%
Redford Jones 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0947% → 70%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.1%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
47.6%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-15
46.0%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (James Proche) to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+42
44.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 42 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+33
51.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 33 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.5%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
69.7%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Allie Green IV) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3032% → 30%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
65.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
66.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
68.2%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
69.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds, downed at the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:5469% → 74%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+44
69.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 44 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
74.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
73.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 15 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
73.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.5%
Ben Hicks run for no gain to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 0
OPP 2
-10
73.0%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Wilds) to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
71.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
74.0%
Josh Williams 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24INT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:2331% → 37%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
68.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
68.5%
Luke Skipper run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+11
67.9%
Luke Skipper run for 11 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
65.9%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
66.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+18
67.2%
Luke Skipper run for 18 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
62.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
63.5%
Luke Skipper pass intercepted, touchback. Rodney Clemons return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3780% → 83%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
79.7%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
82.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+11
82.8%
Ben Hicks run for 11 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
83.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 38 yds, downed at the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2826% → 22%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
73.8%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
74.7%
Skipper, Luke pass complete to Johnson, Keenen for 51 yards to the SMU16, PENALTY TULSA illegal formation 5 yards to the TULSA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
76.3%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+7
77.7%
Luke Skipper run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+1
78.0%
Luke Skipper run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27END OF GAME
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:0089% → 96%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
89.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-1
91.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+13
90.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 13 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
93.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+6
93.7%
Ben Hicks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+1
95.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:26
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+23.3
TD · Q3 3:36
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+21.5
TD · Q2 2:47
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 23 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com