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USF

South Florida 34 at Tulane 28

TULN
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:47 · Jonathan Hernandez punt for 61 yds, downed at the Tulan 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−3.0Pregame prior−25.9Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:29: Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 73 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +6.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:42: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 38 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +7.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:03: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 28 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +7.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:40: Jonathan Banks pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 24 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +9.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:45: Dontrell Hilliard run for 16 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +22.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:13USF 4th & 2 at TULN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TULN 4th & 17 at USF 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:47USF 4th & 7 at USF 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:05USF 4th & 1 at USF 11, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:26TULN 4th & 1 at USF 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−2.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:28TULN 4th & 23 at TULN 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:58TULN 4th & 18 at TULN 21, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:35USF 4th & 1 at TULN 2, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−8.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:35TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 35, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:23USF 4th & 12 at TULN 30, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:23TULN 4th & 17 at midfield, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:16USF 4th & 15 at USF 17, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:08USF 4th & 19 at TULN 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:16USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:18USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:29TULN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:42USF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:03USF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:35USF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:06TULN Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:40TULN Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:45TULN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
18.4%
Jonathan Banks run for 10 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
18.4%
Johnathan Brantley run for 7 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+3
18.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
18.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-1
18.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-2
18.4%
Jonathan Banks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
18.4%
Zachary Block punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 2:5779% → 80%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
20.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
20.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 11 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
20.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 13 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
20.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 14 yds to the Tulan 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
20.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
20.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for no gain to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
20.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+18
20.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
19.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 21 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3PUNT
15 plays · 41 yds · 7:1120% → 21%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
20.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+12
20.4%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Jabril Clewis for 12 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
20.7%
Jonathan Banks run for 3 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
20.8%
Sherman Badie run for 3 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+9
20.7%
Sherman Badie run for 9 yds to the TULANE 44 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
20.3%
[Shotgun], HILLIARD, D. rush over left end for 6 yards to the USF38, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TLN holding off-setting, PENALTY USF offside defense off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
21.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-1
21.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+15
20.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 15 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
21.2%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 5 yds to the SFla 20 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 15
OPP 30
-8
21.0%
Jonathan Banks sacked by Juwuan Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 38Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 23
OPP 38
+6
20.7%
Darius Bradwell run for 6 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
22.3%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Dontrell HilliardSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 32
0
21.4%
Jonathan Banks punt for 31 yds, downed at the SFla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
21.9%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
21.9%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
22.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCants SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
22.5%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 61 yds, downed at the Tulan 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0022% → 24%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
22.4%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 8 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
23.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 6 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
23.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for no gain to the Tulan 49Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
23.1%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Terren EncaladeSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+11
22.4%
Jonathan Banks run for 11 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
23.6%
Dontrell Hilliard run for no gain to the SFla 40 TEAM fumbled,Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
23.5%
Jonathan Banks pass intercepted Devin Abraham return for no gain to the SFla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
23.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 6 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+1
23.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+2
23.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
23.7%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
24.6%
Sherman Badie run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 8
50
-2
24.8%
Darius Bradwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
23.4%
Darius Bradwell run for 9 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
24.1%
Darius Bradwell run for no gain to the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:0179% → 82%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
21.1%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling run for 10 yds to the TULANE 47 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (Deatrick Nichols) to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
21.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, broken up by TEAMER, RodericSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
21.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+12
21.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
17.9%
Darius Tice run for 45 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4918% → 25%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
25.2%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 73 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
22.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
22.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
22.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
22.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:4825% → 25%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
25.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 9 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
26.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
25.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 26Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 15
OWN 26
-5
25.1%
Jonathan Banks run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 21Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 20
OWN 21
-3
25.4%
Jonathan Banks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 18Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 23
OWN 18
0
25.2%
Zachary Block punt for 43 yds, downed at the SFla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:3577% → 86%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
23.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
23.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
22.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
14.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 38 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13Uncategorized
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.0%
[Shotgun], HILLIARD, D. rush over right guard for 3 yards to the TLN28, PENALTY TLN illegal formation 5 yards to the TLN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
18.6%
[Shotgun], HILLIARD, D. rush over right guard for 5 yards to the TLN25 (ABRAHAM, Devin), PENALTY TLN illegal formation 5 yards to the TLN15, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:5084% → 91%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+43
16.5%
Darius Tice run for 43 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
15.5%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
8.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 28 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
11.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 4 yds to the Tulan 5Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
11.2%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Jabril ClewisSimilar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+6
11.1%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 6 yds to the Tulan 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
11.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the Tulan 14Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+15
11.4%
[Shotgun], BANKS, J. slant pass incomplete to CLEWIS, J., PENALTY USF pass interference (NICHOLS, Deatri) 15 yards to the TLN29, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
11.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Tulan 30Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-9
11.6%
Jonathan Banks sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulan 21Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 18
OWN 21
0
11.3%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Terren Encalade, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
Q3 13:58
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
11.3%
Zachary Block punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 2:4794% → 98%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
6.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+14
6.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 14 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
5.3%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 47Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
5.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell Salomon, broken up by Parry NickersonSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+25
5.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 25 yds to the Tulan 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
5.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the Tulan 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
5.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, broken up by Donnie Lewis Jr.Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
5.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Tulan 11Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+9
5.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the Tulan 2Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
2.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.4%
Dontrell Hilliard run for no gain to the Tulan 35Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
2.3%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Jabril ClewisSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
2.3%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Jabril ClewisSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+65
2.3%
Zachary Block punt for 65 yds for a touchback SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18INT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
2.0%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling run for 4 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
1.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+17
2.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 17 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
1.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+18
1.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 18 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
1.8%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-9
1.5%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling run for 6 yds to the Tulan 27 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Josh Black) to the Tulan 42Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-1
1.8%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 43Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+16
1.9%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Donnie Lewis Jr. return for 16 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 0:542% → 5%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
1.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 4 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Auggie Sanchez) to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
2.0%
Darius Bradwell run for 8 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+36
4.4%
Sherman Badie run for 36 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
4.6%
GLOVER, M. kick attempt good, PENALTY TLN holding (JONES, Charles) 10 yards to the USF18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+9
4.5%
GLOVER, M. kick attempt failed, PENALTY USF personal foul 9 yards to the USF9, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:4298% → 97%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
2.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+2
2.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
2.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
2.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
2.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
2.2%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
2.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
2.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+47
2.7%
Emilio Nadelman 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
3.1%
Sherman Badie run for no gain to the Tulan 30Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
3.0%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Kendall Ardoin for 12 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
3.2%
Jonathan Banks run for 5 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+20
3.0%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 20 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
3.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 3 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
3.4%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Jaetavian TolesSimilar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-10
3.4%
[Shotgun], BANKS, J. rush quarterback draw for 9 yards to the USF31 (NICHOLS, Deatri), PENALTY TLN holding (JOHNSON, Tyler) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 17
50
0
3.1%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Terren EncaladeSimilar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 17
50
+10
3.1%
Zachary Block punt for 38 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 10 yds to the SFla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
2.2%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
2.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-10
2.2%
[Shotgun], FLOWERS, Q rush quarterback scramble for 8 yards to the USF34, out-of-bounds (FRANKLIN, J.), PENALTY USF holding (WILCOX, Mitch) 10 yards to the USF16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+1
2.3%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
2.3%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:512% → 12%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
2.1%
Jonathan Banks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 45Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+17
2.0%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 17 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
2.1%
[Shotgun], BANKS, J. middle pass complete to HILLIARD, D. for 38 yards to the USF0, clock 08:19, PENALTY TLN ineligible downfield on pass (JOHNSON, Tyler) 5 yards to the USF43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+19
1.9%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Jabril Clewis for 19 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
11.5%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 24 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24MISSED FG
12 plays · 26 yds · 3:3195% → 96%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
5.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
5.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+15
5.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 15 yds to the Tulan 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
5.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+10
5.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 10 yds to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
5.1%
[Shotgun], JOHNSON, D'Erne rush over right guard for no gain to the TLN8 (KUERSCHEN, C.), PENALTY USF personal foul (ATTERBURY, Bill) 15 yards to the TLN23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 23
-2
5.3%
Trevon Sands run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 25Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 25
+6
4.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 6 yds to the Tulan 19Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
4.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Deangelo AntoineSimilar
Q4 4:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+35
4.4%
Emilio Nadelman 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Donnie Lewis Jr. Parry Nickerson return for no gain to the Tulan 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 25TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:235% → 29%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
4.6%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 36 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-38
6.5%
Jonathan Banks run for 18 yds to the Tulan 17 TULANE Penalty, illegal block (Charles Jones II) to the Tulan 27Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 2
OWN 27
+57
4.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 57 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
6.8%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Kendall ArdoinSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
29.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 16 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0591% → 91%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
8.9%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
8.0%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+30
8.4%
Darius Tice run for 30 yds to the Tulan 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
7.8%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the Tulan 9Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
7.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 11Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-1
9.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:45
Dontrell Hilliard run for 16 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+22.6
TD · Q4 7:40
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 24 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+9.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com